MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Oct. 2
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Perusing OddsShopper live odds, we can also get a good look at the landscape today with both the five-inning and seven-inning moneylines that are posted on the dashboard.
Brown did face the Tigers twice this season, posting seven shutout innings in mid-June, accompanied by nine strikeouts. Looking further back on the schedule, he also had a one-run start in Detroit, racking up seven strikeouts in five innings. Of course, that was forever ago in baseball terms, plus the Motor City Kitties improved dramatically at the plate over the latter half of the season.
Since the beginning of August, Brown has made nine starts, with a 2.17 ERA, a 2.81 FIP, a 3.24 xFIP and 8.83 strikeouts per nine across 54 innings. In these games, the 26-year-old has ceded a trio of taters and 16 walks.
The key this afternoon will be how effective Brown is against the top 4 hitters in Matt Vierling, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows. This season, that quartet has a combined .360 wOBA and comfortably clears the .200-plus ISO, which is the common threshold for indicating elite power.
That left the team turning to AJ Smith-Shawver, who spent the season with the Triple-A Gwinnett Stripers outside of a single spot-start for the parent club at the end of May. Predictably, this did not go well, as the youngster lasted only four outs and gave up all three of the game’s runs.
Fried is a vastly superior pitcher by comparison and, as a southpaw, will bring a different look. It is hard to believe that the long-time prospect is in his age-30 season, but it is true. Fried has a steady strikeout baseline approaching one per inning while limiting power to just 0.77 home runs per nine innings for his career. He also had a 58.8% ground ball rate, which was his highest mark over the last six seasons while also ranking among the best in the game.
That is a nice combination, particularly against a tough offense on a postseason MLB DFS slate where avoiding the pitchers who spontaneously combust is a priority.
Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are the two Padres who have elite power against lefties. Yes, Fernando Tatis Jr. has a solid history, but in his limited action this season, he had a .103 ISO in 117 plate appearances against opposite-handed hurlers, as compared to last year’s .227 ISO in 146 plate appearances. Leadoff man Luis Arraez is pesky in same-handed matchups, though only nine of his 39 total extra-base hits came against fellow lefties.
Make no mistake, San Diego has a veteran lineup, though while it should not scare easily, it may not be able to produce against Fried’s pitching portfolio. Full disclosure, it did get to Fried for nine hits and three runs, but that was back in the middle of May.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Looking at the words of wisdom from an old-timer on how to approach the Wild Card round of the MLB playoffs yesterday, there was a fair amount of strategy, insight and concepts that will carry through the remainder of the playoffs.
Weird and unexpected will seem to be the operative phrases of the day, but nothing has truly changed dramatically from the regular season, other than the chaotic and unpredictable nature of baseball in small sample sizes is receiving extra attention for the first time in six months.
That said, for those who missed this yesterday, here it is once more:
Keep in mind that playoff baseball is a fickle DFS sport. All of the offenses are good, and so are the pitchers. Plus, teams have fully rested bullpens and can also turn to back-of-the-rotation starters as additional options. Road teams have added pressure in the Wild Card Series since they have to win two of the three games and do not get a respite or the opportunity to play in front of their own fans.
Additionally, over-correlating lineups can be a detriment with all of the available arms. Do not be afraid to take a batter or two against your pitcher when searching for differentiation. It would be a surprise to see more than two or three pitchers close out the sixth inning today, which means hitters are going to get a couple looks at the bullpen. Plus, if it is your ace who allows a solo shot or two in an otherwise-pristine outing, there is not a lot of downside to also having them paired with the bat who does the limited damage.
Back to the analysis, LHP Sean Manaea will draw the start for New York. This has been a resurgent season for the 32-year-old southpaw, seeing him finish in the top 20 with his 3.47 ERA and 184 strikeouts while falling just outside the top 10 with his 1.08 WHIP.
The veteran sputtered done the stretch, allowing nine runs in his last two starts across 11.2 innings with only seven whiffs. Naturally, in a “baseball being baseball” moment, his final regular season outing was last Friday in Milwaukee, where he allowed half a dozen runs to the Brewers and was unable to close out the fourth innings. Of course, that really does not have much of an impact on how today’s action will unfold, but it doesn’t paint Manaea in a great light either, despite the aggregated overall excellence for the season.
Willy Adames has struggled against lefties, with the vast majority of his production coming against same-handed hurlers. Personally, he is just 1-for-9 against Manaea, though he does have a pair of walks and a reasonable three strikeouts. Adames is the best fantasy producer for the Brewers, but for those looking for one-offs, he falls well down the list.
William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez are the preferred targets, though with their positional eligibility, gamers will only be able to roster two of the trio on DraftKings and Yahoo. Further down the lineup is Joey Ortiz, who has quietly been an unsung hero both for the Brew Crew and savvy DFS gamers.
Young Jackson Chourio is likely to move into the leadoff slot, with Brice Turang moving to the back of the order. Neither jumps out, but both are in play. Turang continues to be appealing with his stolen base potential that will always be in play regardless of his lineup slot in the postseason. Of course, he still has to get on base, but do not lose sight of something along the lines of what happened in Baltimore. We saw Kansas City drop Maikel Garcia to the back of the order, and lefty Michael Massey was promoted to the top with RHP Corbin Burnes on the mound. Garcia still ended up getting on base twice via a hit and a walk, also nabbing second base on two occasions. That type of outcome is in the cards for Turang, who finished third in the league with 50 stolen bases, four spots and 13 bags above Garcia.
Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick are viable but better used as part of Milwaukee stacks rather than one-offs. Mitchell is the superior DFS option, but he will also carry the most popularity for this pair.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: New York Mets
The downside is that this has taken him five starts to get to those innings, and he also has ceded seven home runs and a disastrous 12 walks. In his last two starts, one against Arizona and then last Friday against Manaea and the Mets, Montas allowed 10 runs in 6.2 innings, four round-trippers and five free passes. The 10 strikeouts were great, though not a saving grace.
Milwaukee gave up on RHP Freddy Peralta yesterday after he allowed three runs in four innings. The team turned to part-time closer Joel Payamps, who promptly melted down in the fifth, lasting only two outs and allowing all three baserunners to score. Some of that was courtesy of Aaron Ashby, who allowed five baserunners and two runs and didn’t get any outs before being replaced by Nick Mears.
Mears closed out the final out in the fifth then had a clean sixth inning before passing the baton to Aaron Civale, who wrapped things up with no runs over the final three frames. The whole point here is that 1) manager Pat Murphy had a quick hook and 2) Civale is likely done for a couple days, and Payamps and Ashby are in the doghouse. That means the next wave of relievers today is going to be comprised of the “also rans,” and Tobias Myers is a potential multi-inning option, similar to Civale yesterday.
The standard core four remains Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos. Jesse Winker is in play but also could be a pinch-hit candidate for various strategies, and it is a similar assessment of his right-handed counterpart Starling Marte. Jose Iglesias is great for contact but light on power — much like Jeff McNeil, who he is covering for in the field and near the top of the order.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day
RHP Joe Musgrove is a frontline starter, but he is also popping as one of the better players to target against in the sports wagering market today.
The Portfolio EV model has the southpaw projected for 5.1 strikeouts, which is well under the six he will need for the 5.5 under to fail.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetRivers where it is available at +112 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has +103 “true odds,” which brings an appealing ROI of 1.5%. We can see that Pinnacle has a -114 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 8% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
The Padres have a relatively fresh bullpen after RHP Michael King went seven clean innings with a whopping 12 strikeouts yesterday. Relievers Jason Adams and Robert Suarez each worked one scoreless frame, completing the shutout. That could weigh into Musgrove getting a quick hook during or after any challenging innings today.
It really would be a surprise to see the 31-year-old veteran go more than five innings or 75 to 80 pitches. That is still ample time to collect half a dozen strikeouts, but odds indicate this to be a favorable under, with a few different paths for Musgrove to fail even if he is succeeding on the mound, depending on how much micromanaging Mike Shildt ends up doing.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
