MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 14
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Unless the M’s go on another tear like the “Refuse to Lose!” team did in 1995, they will be eliminated from playoff contention sometime next week. Of course, it is not all doom and gloom for tonight, since the team still has around a 5% chance of the postseason, and Texas is struggling as well. Corey Seager is again out with an injury, taking the best bat away from the Rangers. While the projected lineup does an adequate job of limiting strikeouts (21.2%) against right-handed hurlers, the power is lacking outside of Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung.
RHP Logan Gilbert currently leads the league with an 0.88 WHIP, landing just outside the top 10 with his 3.15 ERA and ranking second with 22 quality starts. The first-time All-Star also has upped his strikeouts over each of the last three seasons, currently recording 9.3 per nine innings. Projecting wins is a fickle business, particularly with the Mariners, who have done nothing to help Gilbert on that front, as the 27-year-old has a 7-11 record, despite being a top-five pitcher in the American League.
In the three games since being hammered by the Dodgers in Los Angeles for eight runs, Gilbert has racked up 10, nine and 10 strikeouts. Those dedicated gamers still playing MLB “cash games” (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) can employ Gilbert as their frontline starter tonight.
RHP Joe Musgrove has 15 strikeouts in his last 10.1 innings, but he was rocked for a trio of taters and six “Ernies” on Sunday, by the Giants. The rematch is in San Francisco, which favors pitching, and the 31-year-old hurler will be facing a lineup populated by rookie “create-a-players” such as Jerar Encarnacion, Grant McCray and Donovan Walton.
For those not taking a true ace in a tough matchup or rolling with Musgrove, RHP J.T. Ginn is tonight’s wild card option. Though he underwent Tommy John surgery before the 2020 MLB Draft, the New York Mets still took him in the second round. He was then flipped to Oakland as part of the deal for Chris Bassitt. Ginn also missed more time with a forearm issue, slowing his development and likely capping his upside talent expectations as well.
Though the 25-year-old is only the 16th-ranked prospect for the Athletics, with a modest 40 FV (future value), he gets the cherry matchup today against the White Sox. In his last two starts, both in Oakland, the results were solid with 12 strikeouts in 11 innings, along with a pair of walks and one round-tripper. Ginn has a reasonable fastball (92-to-94 mph), but his secondary pitches are non-descript, mostly consisting of a slider and occasional changeup.
The ChiSox have a 33-115 record and need to win nine of their last 14 (64.3%) games to avoid falling below the 1962 Mets for the most losses (120) in a single MLB season. The team is 55.5 games behind the Miami Marlins, which is basically a chasm, and even the Washington Nationals have doubled up Chicago’s win total. Heck, Oakland will join that list with a victory tonight, leaving only the Angels, Rockies and Marlins shy of that expansive club. It would take some luck, but there is a real chance that the other 29 teams in the league, could finish the season with twice as many wins as the Pale Hose.
If Ginn can at least be passable against Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn, and, well, there really isn’t a third worrisome bat, he should provide a usable fantasy point total.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
That is the obvious game to attack, so let’s look at a couple of potential countermoves.
Houston dropped four runs on rookie LHP Sam Aldegheri, sending him to the showers after only two innings. Five walks and a home run were how things unraveled last night, though veteran LHP Tyler Anderson should have more poise on Saturday.
Anderson’s season has been a mixed bag, with the 34-year-old posting a 3.50 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He tends to get in trouble when his walk issues are present, since he has a mediocre 7.10 strikeouts per nine innings and a sub-40% groundball rate. Though BvP numbers are given the #DFSTout “small sample size” caveat, it is interesting to see the current Astros compiling a .315/.375/.589 triple-slash line against Anderson, with only 26 strikeouts, but 20 extra-base hits in 124 at bats.
Most of that damage has been done by Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jake Meyers, Maricio Dubon and Kyle Tucker (7-for-12, .583, with a home runs, a double and two triples). That of course is great, considering those are also the Houston batsmen we would target against any lefties, along with Yanier Diaz and Jeremy Pena.
TLDR: Play Everyone!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Oakland Athletics
RHP Chris Flexen has been better than last season, but not by much. The 29-year-old still has a 5.26 ERA, a 4.92 xFIP and a 5.21 FIP. While he has allowed a trio of taters on the last two games, he has ceded only four across his last 31.1 innings. Unfortunately for him, he has handed out 15 free passes in this timeframe, with only 25 strikeouts.
My favorite thing about Flexen is his perseverance. After washing out with the New York Mets in 2019, he spent 2020 in the KBO, flashing enough to have the Seattle Mariners give him a second chance. From that point on, he collected just shy of $15 million in payments to play this game, or about 96% of his total career earnings.
The top-six are all in play for the A’s tonight, with Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday and catcher Shea Langeliers comprising the first wave. Secondary targets will be Seth Brown and Zack Gelof, with Ryan Noda as an extreme lottery ticket.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
LHP Kyle Freeland has been better at home than on the road for a couple of seasons. Of course, home is Coors Field, and “better” is a relative term. We can attack him in the DFS world as well as the sports wagering market tonight.
The Portfolio EV model has the 28-year-old hurler for around 3.4 strikeouts tonight, which basically in line with his 3.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fanatics where it is available at +120 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has +105 “true odds,” and that works out to a stellar 7.9% expected ROI.
We can see that Bet Rivers and Unibet each have a punitive -118 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 10% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Freeland has been above tonight’s threshold in about half of his outings, with four, five, five, three, three, one and seven in his most recent games. The projected lineup for the Cubs has a sub-18% strikeout rate over the last 30 days, with a 21.6% rate for the year. Ideally the patient hitters at the top of the order, including Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, will be able to work some counts and help Freeland burn through his estimated 87-93 pitch count.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
