Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with a five-game featured slate, locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before getting into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll leverage Stokastic’s tools to find out how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Framber Valdez and Logan Webb as the key arms tonight, with the Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants as the core bats.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 31
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez (HOU vs. PIT)
Astros at Pirates – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,900 at DraftKings
$9,500 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool is ready to back another Houston hurler at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yesterday, the Bucs got a feisty 6-2 victory, getting to RHP Hunter Brown for five runs, four earned, despite eight strikeouts. The dichotomy between Brown and LHP Framber Valdez is massive in their pitching styles and strengths.
Valdez has 7.99 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is the lowest of his career (8.70) and down from 9.09 per nine last season. He has boosted his ground ball rate from a low of 54.2% last year to 59.9% this season, which is closer to his 62.5% career mark. Run prevention is a key part of Valdez’s game, along with efficient innings. He has eight quality starts in his last 11 (73%) outings, which has him among the league leaders once more after finishing first two years ago and top 5 last season. In this stretch he has 57 quality starts in 80 (66%), which is an impressive ratio.
The projected lineup for the Pirates has five hitters who have struck out at least 24.5% of the time against lefties since the start of last season. This includes recent acquisition Bryan De La Cruz, along with Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Jared Triolo and Michael A. Taylor.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb (SF vs. OAK)
Giants vs. Athletics – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
Break one off for the Oakland offense, which accounted for a trio of taters against LHP Robbie Ray and a fourth against LHP Taylor Rodgers on the way to a 5-2 victory. The A’s have the fourth-most home runs in the league and the most runs over the last 30 days, but the team is in the middle of the pack over the last two weeks on the scoring front.
The Athletics are only 13th in total bases while striking out the third most in the league. Opposing pitchers are not afraid to challenge this K-happy group when the biggest penalty is a solo shot. RHP Logan Webb is almost as elite as Valdez when it comes to ground balls, with a 57.2% rate this season and a 58.2% rate for his career. Webb also limits power, ceding only seven round trippers in 135.1 innings this year and a wicked-low 0.64 home runs per nine innings for his career. This is a strength-on-strength matchup, with Webb likely to hold serve.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease (SD vs. LAD)
Padres vs. Dodgers – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
$9,700 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$54 at Yahoo
Shout out to RHP Dylan Cease, who no-hit the Washington Nationals last Thursday, with three walks and nine strikeouts on 114 pitches. Cease is also on a three-game scoreless streak, spanning 22 innings, allowing two total hits and striking out 30. WOW!
Los Angeles is still without MVPs Mookie Betts, who is on the injured reserve, and potentially Freddie Freeman, who is tending to a personal matter. The team did add Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Edman and Amed Rosario over the last couple days, which will boost the offense, but not as much as the return of Betts, Freeman and even injured Max Muncy.
Cease is at the top of his game right now but also priced for a seven-inning, three-run, eight-plus-strikeout start on Yahoo and FanDuel. The 28-year-old workhorse has tallied 114, 97, 106 and 103 pitches over his last four starts and reached 100 or more in half of his 22 starts. However, the concern is that pitching during a no-hitter is a lot like pitching in the playoffs, where there are a lot more maximum effort “stressor” throws than a typical outing. That is the concern for Cease tonight, who is going to need to thread the needle to reach a “must have” fantasy score at his current salary tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Astros vs. Pirates – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jake Woodford
DK Top Stack %: 12.5%
FD Top Stack %: 14.0%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is excited to see RHP Jake Woodford back in The Show after his rocky two-game debut was filled with horrors. In 8.1 outings, he allowed 10 earned runs, 15 hits, five walks and two home runs, with only seven strikeouts.
To his credit, he has been solid in his seven MiLB starts after being demoted, posting a 2.29 ERA in 35.1 innings, with 37 strikeouts and a .235/.270/.364 triple-slash line, ceding just three home runs and 11 total extra-base hits. The soon-to-be 28-year-old was a first-round selection by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2015 MLB Draft, directly out of high school. After fizzling out, Woodford was ultimately released last November, landing with the White Sox. Chicago gave him 10 starts in Triple-A before bringing him up to fill in for Mike Clevinger and then releasing him in June, which cleared the way for him to join Pittsburgh.
While that is not quite a Crash Davis-esque story, it is not too far off. Even at his peak back in 2021, he was only the 24th-ranked prospect for St. Louis.
Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are the trio to target. Catchers Yainer Diaz (upside) and Victor Caratini (savings) are options, along with infielder Jeremy Pena and outfielder Jake Meyers. The Astros provide a malleable stacking opportunity at a variety of price points, positions and lineup slots.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: San Francisco Giants
Giants vs. Athletics – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ross Stripling
DK Top Stack %: 8.5%
FD Top Stack %: 8.0%
Tonight will be the second start for RHP Ross Stripling, who missed two months with a strained elbow. The anemic Anaheim Angels got to him for five runs over 5.2 innings — albeit with only two doubles as the lone extra-base hits.
Stripling has a career-low 0.88 strikeouts per nine inning across his 61.1 frames this season, but his strikeouts, walks and contact rates are among the worst of his career. While his 4.17 xERA and 3.92 FIP indicate his 6.02 ERA holds some bad luck, when was the last time the 34-year-old was considered a top-flight pitcher?
The Giants dealt Jorge Soler to Atlanta, which has recreated the magical 2021 late season outfield, bringing back Eddie Rosario as well, along with Adam Duvall, after the veteran slugger spent last year in Boston. The only missing player is Joc Pederson, who has been a key part of the Diamondbacks this year.
Even without Soler’s power, San Francisco has plenty of competent hitters with LaMonte Wade Jr., Michael Conforto, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Mike Yastrzemski and young Tyler Fitzgerald. There is some pinch-hit risk with Wade and Yastrzemski if the A’s bring in a lefty reliever, having two of the three in their bullpen being relatively fresh.
Wade should get three at-bats against Stripling as the leadoff man, and Yastrzemski is so cheap on FanDuel ($2,500) and DraftKings ($3,000), he is fine even if he only sees two plate appearances tonight. Last but not least, catcher Patrick Bailey is a potential stacking option if he has a favorable lineup slot. Though he was below-average against same-handed hurlers last year, he has improved to a .339 wOBA and a .150 ISO in 245 plate appearances this season.
Stokastic’s Lineup Generator provides outstanding value! Discover how to maximize its potential to improve your MLB DFS picks with our detailed Lineup Generator Guide.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight LHP Cristopher Sanchez is an interesting option in the sports wagering market in a matchup against the New York Yankees.
Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +116 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +108 “true odds” for Sanchez to stay under five strikeouts, which brings a nice 3.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a -123 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 13% expected ROI, which is just ridiculous.
There is elevated risk in this wager, as Sanchez projects for 4.7 strikeouts, which is above the 4.5 for milestone. Of course, there are no fractional strikeouts in baseball, but the 48% probability for the under to come through on this wager means we MUST get this at +108 or better and that the +116 on FanDuel is the best site to place this bet.
The projected lineup for the Yankees lacks much power in the bottom half of the order against lefties, but at least Anthony Volpe, DJ LeMahieu and Oswaldo Cabrera are below average when it comes to strikeouts. The key will be for the top half of the order to make Sanchez pay, with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto to post some crooked numbers on the board and push Sanchez to the showers.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can come and go within minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be ready to seize these fleeting chances before they disappear.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Wednesday, July 31
For the featured slate, Cincinnati has a high level of precipitation risk. The coverage and voracity of the storms are still up in the air (cwidt), so it will be important to monitor this situation. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
