MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Wait Which Stack is THE PLAY?! (April 26)

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Saturday has a variety of slates, with the featured-tournaments coalescing around a five-gamers, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo is reaching forward and including the two tilts in the 6 o’clock hour with a 14-game docket for the largest prize pools. Today we’re breaking down MLB DFS picks using Stokastic’s industry-leading tools and MLB DFS projections to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, find the top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease have favorable matchups on the featured-slate. According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Seattle Mariners are a surprising stack at home, while the San Diego Padres provide a nice secondary trio to target as a complementary stack.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 26


MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: Luis Castillo (SEA vs. MIA)

Mariners vs. Marlins – 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool is hopeful that RHP Logan Gilbert avoids serious injury time, after leaving the game last night with forearm tightness, having been perfect through his three innings. While the Marlins cruised to an 8-4 victory, dropping eight runs on long-reliever RHP Casey Lawrence who gamely went five innings, only two runs were earned after Dylan Moore’s two-out error in the fifth inning.

Thought RHP Luis Castillo had a rough start in Cincinnati against his former team 11 days ago, being saddled with six “Ernies” in 4.1 innings, he battled through 10 hits and two walks across five innings in Toronto, garnering his second victory of the season. The 1.59 baserunners per inning is uncharacteristic for the 32-year-old veteran of nine MLB campaigns, so ideally he takes advantage of this “get right” spot.

The return of Connor Norby and Jesus Sanchez from their respective oblique injuries his helpful for Miami, but the Marlins get a ballpark downgrade from their already pitching friendly home.

Lawrence helped the bullpen get a bit of a respite with his five frames, allowing the four key arms to get a break after pitching on Thursday, with close Andres Munoz and top-lefty reliever Gabe Spier also having worked on Wednesday. Game time temperatures will be dipping into the upper-50s, which is favorable weather for the pitchers.

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease (SD vs. TB)

Padres vs. Rays – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo

The 6.04 ERA for RHP Dylan Cease is u-g-l-y UGLY, though nine of those runs came against the Athletics in West Sacramento, two starts ago. In his four other starts, the veteran ace has allowed only eight earned runs, including two each to the top Cubs offense and in Houston against the Astros. The 29-year-old also had 12 strikeouts, two walks and only one home run in these last two starts, spanning 10.2 frames.

Tampa Bay ranks 20th in home runs, 15th in total bases and sixth in steals. This still has them in the middle of the pack, with and average of 4.23 runs per game. Speedy rookie Chandler Simpson is a stolen base threat any time he is on board, but he has a lot of pressure on him as a leadoff hitter with 14 plates appearances in The Show against right-handed pitching. Fellow rookie Kameron Misner has 73, though the 27-year-old has been a regular for a few weeks now. Late-blooming rookie Jake Mangum was put on the injured list Thursday, which takes another lefty out of the mix.

Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda are the only worrisome bats for Cease, with the back of the lineup looking pretty dodgy. The Rays embrace doing all the little things and while that adds up over the course of a season, it can be pretty barren on a game-to-game basis with actual results.

For the afternoon action, RHP Hunter Greene is in play against the Rockies, though he has had uneven production this season and Coors Field is always tricky. The strikeout potential is so appealing, it pushes the scales in his favor.

Other options are RHP Sonny Gray at home against Milwaukee, with Garrett Mitchell suffering an oblique injury that could force him to miss time. That may not seem like much, but the success of the Brew Crew offense is predicated with solid hitters up and down the lineup, including Mitchell. Jake Bauers will probably find his name on the lineup card with him being the best left-handed hitter off the bench. LHP Jeffrey Springs left his last start early, but he has a date with the pitiful Pale Hose and we know how historically bad the Chicago White Sox have been over the last season and change.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Contrarian Target: Seattle Mariners

Mariners vs. Marlins – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Connor Gillespie
DK Top Stack %: 10.7%
FD Top Stack %: 23.1%

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has no trust in the abilities of RHP Connor Gillispie, even in the Pacific Northwest pitcher’s haven. He has the makings of a back-of-the rotation starter, but without any one dominant go to pitch, we see results like his last two games.

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In these matchups against Arizona and in Philadelphia, the 27-year-old allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings, with nine strikeouts, with three doubles and a pair of round-trippers.

The focus for the Mariners should be the first six hitters in the lineup. Seattle clearly has a decent offense, though it usually hides at home and comes out in force on the road in the better hitting parks.

Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raliegh has power that plays everyone, as does Luke Raley, when he holds the platoon-advantage.

Righties Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena are solid in righty-right matchups, while we should see a discounted Rowdy Tellez, who has been crushing the ball, when he actually makes contact. He is a pinch hit risk if a southpaw comes in, but still in play for stacks.

Main Slate Contrarian Target: San Diego Padres

Padres vs. Rays – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP
Ryan Pepiot
DK Top Stack %: 5.8%
FD Top Stack %: 5.6%

The Dodgers have a good matchup against RHP Mitch Keller, who is far from a gas can, but best suited as a No. 3/4 starter. Arizona looks solid against RHP Grant Holmes, with the second-most popularity on the featured-slate.

That leads us to an injury riddled Padres lineup, that is going against RHP Ryan Pepiot. To be clear, Pepiot is a solid pitcher, when he is in Tropicana Field. Through some scheduling quirks, all five of his starts have been at home, in George Steinbrenner Field, which is a home run park as evidenced by his eight longballs in his last 22 innings.

Pepiot has decent strikeout stuff, but he allows too many fly balls to survive if runners are on base. The focus for the Friars will be Fernando Tatis Jr. Manny Machado, discount dandy Gavin Sheets and veteran Xander Bogaerts for those needing a full-stack. To be clear, the back of this lineup is terrible and could suffer two three-up, three down innings against Pepiot. That is what happens when Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Luis Arraez and Jason Hewyward are all out with various maladies.

For the early-slate, of course the Reds are the priority in Coors Field, though the Athletics are strong options once again against RHP Jonathan Cannon, who did survive against them 10 days ago, sandwiched in between a pair of disappointing showings.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

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India has not done much against lefties this season, but when he was with the Reds, he provided solid contact with a little pop. He is at the top of the order and while LHP Framber Valdez is a top-notch pitcher, he has had some struggles in the early going. A fortuitous double or a pair of singles will have India’s backers whistling to the bank.

How to get the most out of your MLB DFS picks with Stokastic Sims!

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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