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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 16
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The 31-year-old began his baseball journey back in 2016, in his home country of Japan. He found a tremendous amount of success in the NPB as a two-time All Star and the 2023 Central League strikeout leader. Imanaga also had a no-hitter in 2022 against the Nippon Ham Fighters.
Aside from a 10-run meltdown against the New York Mets in late-June and suffering seven runs in Milwaukee at the hands of the Brewers at the end of May, Imanaga has allowed three or fewer runs in 24 of his 25 other starts. For those wondering, he allowed four runs in the other appearance.
The Oakland offense does have ample power against left-handed pitching, but it is accompanied by a 25.2% strikeout rate for the season. Run prevention is a specialty of Imanaga, as detailed above, and the A’s are in the bottom third of the league with only 3.89 runs per game over the last 30-day period.
Detmers is back up from his Triple-A banishment, and the erstwhile ace has pitched a pair of quality starts, going six innings in each outing and allowing two earned runs. He also has 18 strikeouts in this stretch, ceding one round-tripper. Chicago scuffled to a pair of one-run wins this weekend against the Athletics, but the ChiSox are still at risk of producing the fewest wins in history since the league moved to a 162-game schedule.
The real test will be tomorrow, when Griffin “Tomato” Canning faces this putrid offense. For tonight, we ride with Detmers.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
It looks like RHP Reese Olson will be returning from the injured reserve, pushing back RHP Casey Mize in the rotation.
He has been away from The Show since July 20 with shoulder issues, working for 39 and 45 pitches in his two rehabilitation efforts.
The 24-year-old had a solid sophomore campaign, with a 3.23 ERA and 3.13 FIP across 19 starts and 103 innings. Expectations are for around 60 to 65 pitches before giving way to the below-average bullpen.
Kansas City has been a top-10 offense this year for both runs scored and stolen bases. When the Royals are facing right-handed pitching, most of the production is concentrated in superstar Bobby Witt Jr., veteran Salvador Perez and infielder Michael Massey. We should also see MJ Melendez in the lineup, and while he has a pitiful .207 average, he does boast an elite .229 ISO in opposite-handed matchups this season.
Outfielders Tommy Pham and Kyle Isbel are in play for those looking for full stacks, though keeping things focused on the aforementioned core four is a solid strategy.
Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Mets
Things have been a little rough over the last three starts, though some of that could be a result of the career-high 172 inning workload. The 27-year-old held Atlanta to just one run across six frames in his last appearance, but he gave up 13 runs in 10 innings of action in Pittsburgh and against the Chicago Cubs.
Irvin has only 7.59 strikeouts per nine innings this season, with control and ground balls being his best friends. New York has a top-10 offense, averaging 4.6 runs at home and 4.9 runs on the road. The top of the lineup is daunting, with slugger Pete Alonso, switch-hitter Francisco Lindor, steady Brandon Nimmo and the surprise of the season, Mark Vientos, all having strong production against right-handed pitchers. Plus veteran slugger J.D. Martinez can still get it done against marginal pitchers, though he has been looking a little at the plate of late.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
LHP Matthew Boyd has been solid since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he has a true test tonight against the Minnesota Twins, who have welcomed back Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton from their respective injury absences.
The Portfolio EV model has the 33-year-old hurler for around 5.6 strikeouts tonight, which basically in line with his 5.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fanatics where it is available at -105 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -112 “true odds,” and that works out to a decent 2.9% expected ROI.
We can see that Pinnacle has posted a punitive -135 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 8% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Since his return to action, Boyd has nine, six, eight, four, two and six strikeouts for about one per inning pitched. The nine in his most recent start was against the White Sox, though he did coax half a dozen whiffs from the Dodgers in the preceding performance.
The projected Minnesota lineup has a 21.8% strikeout rate against southpaws this season, with Byron Buxton (26.1%), Royce Lewis (23.0%) and switch-hitter Willi Castro (26.7%) the only batsmen worse than league average. The team also has plenty of pop, which could help push Boyd from the game earlier than anticipated if he is not bringing his A-game.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
