Monday brings a new week with a nifty nine-game slate locking at 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo goes with a 10-game slate that includes the 6:40 p.m. ET matchup in Miami. Today we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to discover how to build MLB DFS stacks, find top pitchers, and creating optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Mike King and Yusei Kikuchi are today’s core pitchers, and the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 19
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Michael King (SD vs. MIN)
Padres vs. Twins – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$10,000 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool loves Monday’s matchups as there are definitely some dicey decision points up and down the price sheet. The first dilemma is determining the “best” pitcher, and that definitely is a path fraught with danger.
Ultimately RHP Michael King gets the nod, mostly for his strikeout upside as he faces a tricky Twins team. King had his first cup of coffee in The Show back in 2019 and also got 26.2 innings across nine outings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The Yankees mostly employed him as a spot starter or multi-inning reliever, with the Padres choosing to put him in the rotation after receiving him as part of the Juan Soto deal.
King has logged 135.1 innings this season, which is his heaviest workload since 2018. Strikeouts have long been his calling card, and that skillset has translated to the big leagues, with the 29-year-old racking up 10.7 per nine innings, sitting just outside the top 5 qualified starters. He also does a terrific job of limiting power, mostly by inducing medium contact, with several of his pitches presenting horizontal movement and fooling hitters even when they are on the correct swing plane.
Minnesota is without Byron Buxton, who rejoined Carlos Correa and Alex Kirilloff on the injured reserve. The top of the lineup is still bolstered by Royce Lewis and lefties Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, accompanied by switch-hitter Willi Castro in the leadoff slot. While things do start to peter out towards the back of the lineup, it is important to call out that Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, Christian Vazquez and even Austin Martin all strike out well below league average.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (HOU vs. BOS)
Astros vs. Red Sox – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
Unless one is looking for differentiation on FanDuel, there is no reason to go to LHP Yusei Kikuchi when King is just $600 more. DraftKings and Yahoo are a different story, where the game format requires two starting pitchers.
It is always an adventure when Kikuchi toes the rubber, particularly now that he is 33 years old. The veteran southpaw has averaged 10.47 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is the second-highest rate of his career. Despite a reputation for allowing extra-base hits, he actually is solid more often than not, but the implosions can be spectacular.
In his three starts since joining Houston, the former Blue Jay has had two games against Tampa and one in Texas against the Rangers. Across these 16.2 innings, he has a whopping 24 strikeouts while issuing six walks and ceding a pair of home runs. Make no mistake, Kikuchi is going to have to thread the needle tonight to return a profit on his salary, though even if he does not have an apex game, he still could be a top-5 scorer tonight with all the pitfalls.
Boston has received reinforcements now that Triston Casas and Tyler O’Neill have rejoined the lineup. There are no easy outs up and down the order, which is why there is definitely risk riding with Kikuchi tonight as the tradeoff for his strikeout potential. The Red Sox projected lineup has a 28.5% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Kyle Harrison (SF vs. CHW)
Giants vs. White Sox – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
$7,900 at DraftKings
$8,200 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
This is all about picking on the White Sox active roster, which has a 74 wRC+ against lefties this season, ahead of only the Marlins (71 wRC+) and well behind the Rays (89 wRC+). LHP Kyle Harrison is an enigma, allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings but suffering five multi-dinger games.
Over his last three starts, Harrison has given up SIX home runs, though two were against Atlanta and four were in Cincinnati’s tiny ballpark. Five of these moon balls were solo shots, and Harrison did have over a strikeout per inning in these three appearances. The projected Chicago lineup has a .104 ISO and a 21.1% strikeout rate against lefties this season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Angels – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Carson Fulmer
DK Top Stack %: 10.8%
FD Top Stack %: 10.5%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the matchup for Kansas City against RHP Carson Fulmer. The Royals are back home after sweeping the Reds in Cincinnati this weekend and have been clicking on offense all month, winning 12 of the last 18 (67%) games.
Fulmer is in his age-30 season, having made his debut back in 2016 with the White Sox after being the eighth overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft out of Vanderbilt. He has only 211 innings in The Show, spread out over eight seasons with the ChiSox, Tigers, Orioles, Reds and now the Angels.
Over his last five games, Fulmer has compiled a 5.79 ERA, 5.69 FIP and a 5.24 xFIP, with 3.47 walks and 6.94 strikeout per nine innings. That is below replacement level for a starter and a gateway to an even less enthralling bullpen.
The Royals are a fun team to roster since they also have three accomplished base stealers in Maikel Garcia (30 SBs), Bobby Witt Jr. (25 SBs) and Dairon Blanco (22 SBs). Kansas City ranks 10th overall with 102 steals while also having half a dozen hitters with double-digit home runs.
Witt and veteran Salvador Perez, along with journeyman Hunter Renfroe, have done a fine job of stabilizing the offense from a power perspective. The team tends to put Michael Massey at the top of the order against right-handed starters, with Garcia typically getting the nod against lefties. This is a boost for Massey, but with Garcia having the green light, he can still post fantasy production with his speed as long as he makes it on base.
MJ Melendez has been on a bit of a heater this month with a .324/.348/.588 triple-slash line, compared to his full-season line of .205/.265/.407. Plus there is still Vinnie Pasquantino, who has been mashing opposite-handed offerings this season to the tune of a .343 wOBA and a .197 ISO. It is going to be in the low-80s at first pitch with a nominal breeze blowing in from left-center field in Kaufmann Stadium tonight.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Late Slate Primary Target: San Francisco Giants
Giants vs. White Sox – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jonathan Cannon
DK Top Stack %: 8.1%
FD Top Stack %: 7.9%
San Francisco is an excellent late-slate option while also rating out as a top-5 stack on the featured slate. RHP Jonathan Cannon has been mediocre at best, with 6.14 strikeouts per nine innings, a 39.8% ground ball rate and allowing 1.34 home runs per nine innings.
The Giants shape up better against lefties, but the likely production against right-handed hurlers is relatively concentrated in the heart of the order. Left-handers Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski are excellent when they hold the platoon advantage, with Matt Chapman being the keystone to stacks against pitchers of either handedness.
LaMonte Wade is always a pinch-hit risk, but he should at least be one of the first two batters in the lineup. Chicago has two lefty relievers, though it is unlikely Jared Shuster will see action after logging 43 pitches on Saturday, so that leaves only Fraser Ellard. Finally, Tyler Fitzgerald has been amazing this season, with a .316/.370/.616 triple-slash line and success against both lefties and righties.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
It is never fun going against RHP Kevin Gausman, but tonight he is someone to target in the sports wagering world for the under on his 6.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at -140 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -146 “true odds” for the veteran hurler to fall shy of seven strikeouts.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced with ESPN BET posting a -175 line, which equates to a negative 4% expected ROI. Several other books are taking a different approach, lowering the threshold to under 5.5 strikeouts with plus money. Even the best of these offers at PointsBet (+115) still has a negative-3% ROI.
This year, Gausman has only 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, well below both his 9.3 career rate and his 11.1 mark over the last four seasons. The Reds do get a major boost with their home park, but the team still travels well with power. That, along with half of the projected lineup being under league average when it comes to strikeouts, makes this a tricky matchup for Gausman.
Over his last 10 starts, Gausman has recorded five, two, two, eight, five, three, 10, seven, five and four strikeouts. Context is everything, and now that -146 seems more appealing than at first blush.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Monday, Aug. 19
Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
