MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 15
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The next year, the Tigers gave Flaherty a one-year, $14 million contract, with the team ultimately dealing him to the Dodgers that summer. Though he won a World Series with Los Angeles, he had a couple of rough postseason appearances. Flaherty decided to rejoin the Tigers, who gave the frontline ace a two-year, $35 million deal as the team attempts to reach the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
The 29-year-old is off to a strong start with a whopping 21 strikeouts in 16.2 innings, ceding only four extra-base hits in a trio of tilts, including games against the Yankees and in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. The strikeouts are likely to slide back to something just shy of 10 per nine innings, but Flaherty is otherwise a solid and trustworthy top-30 arm.
Pitching after LHP Tarik Skubal is an advantage as it gives opposing offenses a difficult dichotomy to discern. The Milwaukee offense is above average, finishing in the top 6 last season for runs scored with mostly the same cast of characters. Willy Adames is out, but Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick each have additional experience, plus William Contreras is coming into his own as a strong hitter. Also, former MVP and two-time batting champion Christian Yelich is never an easy out.
That sounds like an endorsement for the Brew Crew, and it is; however, for this matchup it is more of a caution to understand the underlying talent facing Flaherty. Tuesday’s decision point at the top of the salary sheet will be between LHP Max Fried in Yankee Stadium against Kansas City and Flaherty against a more balanced lineup. Each has merit, though ultimately Your Ol’ Pal is giving the slight nod to Flaherty.
St. Louis popped off for a surprising seven runs against Valdez, with the shockers being Valdez is pretty good at limiting runs and the Cardinals are better suited to face righties. Of course, baseball is baseball, which is a reminder for everyone since we are coming off six months of NBA — the “most projectable” of the DFS sports.
Schwellenbach does not have a cakewalk matchup, and he has been very lucky with a .191 batting average on balls in play. However, he is yet another amazing arm coming off the conveyor belt in Atlanta, and he possesses strikeout upside that could be augmented in this matchup by the Toronto offense.
Shout out to the Blue Jays for backing up the Brinks truck for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the signing of switch-hitting maven Anthony Santander is stellar. However, the rest of the lineup is pretty dodgy, including leadoff hitter Bo Bichette, who again looks lost at the plate. Hopefully, the two-time All-Star will turn things around, and at least he is getting singles, though he has just five extra-base hits (all doubles), which is concerning since last year his power all but disappeared as well.
Andres Gimenez is more known for his glove, but he is battling cleanup, and that is a bit of an indictment against this offense. He has looked good with the platoon advantage this season, but the rest of the batsmen behind him have a collective .050 ISO against right-handed hurlers. The Blue Jays do not strike out a lot, but with the team lacking any consistent power, having runners on base that end up being stranded is not particularly worrisome for opposing hurlers.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Tampa Bay Rays
More and more gamers are going to realize that with Tampa playing outdoors at George Steinbrenner Field instead of inside Tropicana Field, the Florida weather has the chance to make its home venue more like Coors Field East than the traditional pitcher’s paradise of the last three decades.
There is a reason the short-on-healthy-pitchers Los Angeles organization was willing to let RHP Walker Buehler walk this offseason: It is because he is a middling arm at best who is now 30 years old and has logged only 156 innings since his age-26 season. Injuries hurt the former prospect from ever truly maintaining success, and now Father Time is catching up.
Increasing walks and home runs with decreasing strikeouts are going to be a challenge for Buehler in the American League East. Tampa does not have many household names on the roster, but the Rays have a nice collection of lefties with power potential against opposite-handed hurlers. Brandon Lowe is the proven commodity, and Jonathan Aranda is progressing nicely while Kameron Misner is the late-blooming prospect.
Junior Caminero can get it done against pitchers of either handedness, and he has the makings of a future All-Star. Non-traditional leadoff man Yandy Diaz is an on-base machine with extra-base-hit upside if pitchers are not respecting him. Finally, 29-year-old switch-hitting rookie Jake Mangum is a punt option at the bottom of the order. He has speed if he can get on base, and opposing pitchers are likely to try to get him out at the plate, which should give him some hittable offerings as all of the holes in his swing are ultimately exposed.
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Tonight’s starter, LHP Logan Allen, is more of a crafty lefty than a fireballer, even though he has been one of Cleveland’s better prospects and he has held his own over his first 48 appearances. The lack of strikeout stuff is likely to be a problem against deep offenses such as the Orioles, plus we want to remember that there were offseason renovations to the left-field wall in Camden Yards, undoing the prior renovations from a couple years ago.
Aside from leadoff man and budding superstar Gunnar Henderson, the rest of the projected Baltimore lineup is expected to be swinging the stick from the right side of the plate. Across his last 397 opposite-handed matchups, Allen has a low 17.1% strikeout rate and a high 10.6% walk rate, accompanied by an unsightly .399 wOBA and .251 ISO.
There are a myriad of ways to stack the O’s, which makes them malleable as they can be contrarian with the likes of Gary Sanchez and Ryan Mountcastle, cheap with Ramon Laureano, Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias, and powerful with Henderson, Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg, and Adley Rutschman.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Max Fried over 5.5 strikeouts today, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
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Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
If you are not able to get LHP Max Fried in your DFS lineups, fear not as he also has a decent strikeout prop posted, though it could disappear fast. He had 11 whiffs in his last start in Detroit and six in Pittsburgh in his preceding effort. Most season-long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) have him for just shy of a strikeout per inning, which has him among the upper echelon in the game. Kansas City does a decent job of limiting strikeouts, but most of the lineup is just below league average.
