Friday winds down the work week with a 12-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to grab the three earlier matchups for a 15-game set with a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Garret Crochet, Joe Ryan and Sean Manaea as Friday’s top arms. On the offensive side, Houston looks like a strong play, with the St. Louis and Atlanta offenses bringing the lumber.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 12
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Garrett Crochet (CHW vs. PIT)
White Sox vs. Pirates – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$10,300 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$56 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Garrett Crochet on the short list for key aces across the DFS sites. The young southpaw continues to be outstanding and is in play as a trade chip that could return several younger prospects from a playoff contender.
UPDATE: 6:25 p.m. ET, Now it is real that there is more of a pitch count for Crochet who will be starting the All-Star Game. Keep in mind he is likely to pitch one and maybe two innings in the Mid-Summer Classic, so more of a “throwing day” than a real outing, but it is likely to cost him an inning tonight which takes him out of “cash game” consideration.
Chicago is likely to keep him on a soft pitch count of around 90 to 95 as it showcases him, and in the event he is not dealt, the White Sox have already said an overall workload limit will be in play. That should not change his outlook tonight, nor should today’s whispers talking about having him “save a little” for the upcoming All-Star Game. ChiSox fans would be far happier with him making a strong showing at home tonight and getting the team a win rather than appearing in the All-Star Game for an inning since he could very well be wearing a new uniform in three weeks.
The active Pittsburgh roster has a 90 wRC+ this season against left-handed pitching and a 25.2% strikeout rate that is the fourth highest in the league. Bryan Reynolds, Connor Joe, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Nick Gonzales do their best work against opposite-handed hurlers, but this crew would be hard-pressed to be every-day starters on legitimate playoff contenders. Strikeouts are the currency of the realm, and the projected Pittsburgh lineup has a 26.9% K rate against southpaws over the last season-plus. Enjoy!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Joe Ryan (MIN at SF)
Twins at Giants – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
Once again, RHP Joe Ryan continues to chug along every five days, racking up the 14th-most strikeouts in the league and a top-25 3.29 ERA, plus his 0.971 WHIP is surpassed by only five other hurlers. He has allowed more than three runs a trio of times, with four, four and five.
Ryan has seen his strikeouts fall from a career-high 11.0 per nine innings last year to a still-excellent 9.7 this season. In his last two starts against Houston and in Seattle, he has 18 strikeouts in 11.1 innings, one walk, 11 hits, four earned runs and one lonely round-tripper.
Tonight game-time temperatures will be in the low-60s, which should have San Francisco playing as a pitching-friendly venue. The projected lineup for the Giants has a 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which bodes well for Ryan, who boasts a 28.3% combined rate in that same time frame.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Sean Manaea (NYM vs. COL)
Mets vs. Rockies – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$8,800 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
There is some weather risk in New York, but it looks like there is ample time to get this game in tonight. The Rockies continue to be dreadful on the road, with a bottom-5 87 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes various factors, including ballparks, to create a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100). In Coors Field, the Rockies have a 93 wRC+, which is also in the bottom 5.
Finally, it is important to note that the active roster for Colorado has a 25.2% strikeout rate against lefties, which is the third highest in the league. The projected lineup is even worse, with a whopping SIX hitters who have struck out 30% or more of the time versus southpaws since the beginning of last year.
It almost doesn’t matter who is pitching, but LHP Sean Manaea is the lucky winner toeing the rubber tonight. The 32-year-old veteran has allowed only one earned run in his last three starts, with 13 of his 17 (76%) outings resulting in two or fewer runs for the opposition. There is not much else to add other than, for those of you playing on Yahoo, LHP Ranger Suarez has a solid $44 salary and pairs nicely with Manaea or as a pivot.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals vs. Cubs – 5.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Kyle Hendricks
DK Top Stack %: 5.5%
FD Top Stack %: 5.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has 10 teams with between a 5% and 7% probability of being the highest-scoring team on the slate. That means things are going to be wide open in tournaments tonight, with plenty of pitching options as well. It is going to be in the mid-80s when the game begins in St. Louis, with a 65% to 70% humidity level. None of that bodes well for RHP Kyle Hendricks.
The last three starts have been rough for the 34-year-old, resulting in just 12.2 innings, a 7.82 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP and a paltry eight strikeouts. While his advanced metrics are better, a 5.14 FIP and a 4.95 xFIP are not great considering this was against the Angels and Giants as two of the three teams, with the Brewers doing most of the damage.
Hendricks has already been banished to a relief role once this season, and it would not be a surprise if that happens again. Even though he is in the final season of his contract, it is still unlikely that the Cubs will outright release him, considering he has been with the team for all of his 11 MLB campaigns and can still eat innings for a team going nowhere fast.
It is easier to say whom to not play (Michael Siani) than whom to play in this lineup — which is pretty much everyone else. Focus on the lefties, with Lars Nootbaar back from the injured reserve, slotting in somewhere and Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan in the top half of the order. The Nolans, Gorman and Arenado, are solid, as are Paul Goldschmidt and catcher Willson Contreras.
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Late Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves at Padres – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Randy Vasquez
DK Top Stack %: 5.3%
FD Top Stack %: 5.2%
UPDATE: Now it will be RHP Matt Waldron, aka the lone practitioner of the knuckleball, currently in the league. That is a big upgrade for San Diego and makes Atlanta far less appealing, though still in play for the late-slate. Cincinnati, both New York Teams and Milwaukee are all strong stacking options on the featured-slate now instead of Atlanta.
It feels like RHP Randy Vasquez is on borrowed time, having allowed just three earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 15.1 innings. He only has 10 strikeouts during this span, which is terrifying for a pitcher with a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 47.1% hard-hit rate against his last 424 batters faced.
The 25-year-old toiled in the minors, beginning his MLB journey with the Yankees as a 19-year-old in 2018. He did not make it to Triple-A until last year, when he also had 37.2 innings as a reliever in The Show prior to being traded as part of the Juan Soto deal in December. Vasquez rates out as a create-a-player who has home run and control issues, with below-average strikeout potential. That is not the type of pitcher who should be facing Atlanta.
Even without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II, Atlanta has a top-tier offense. While losing this dynamic duo keeps this crew from being elite, it is still an All-Star-laden lineup. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies continue to be a strong core. Tonight we want to focus on lefties as the first priority, with Olson and switch-hitter Albies joined by former Seattle uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic and savvy veteran Eddie Rosario.
To be clear, the right-handers are also in play and can be augmented by Adam Duvall and whichever catcher draws the start between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight LHP Hogan Harris will be facing the Phillies in Philadelphia for an early-evening matchup. The under on his 3.5 Strikeouts is intriguing out on DraftKings, where it is currently available at +132 odds.
New users at FanDuel Sportsbook, bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly), click here for details.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +124 “true odds” for Harris to fall under four strikeouts, which brings a decent 3.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by SuperBook all the way down at a +106 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are back, which leaves only J.T. Realmuto as the key bat on the injured reserve. The projected lineup for the Phillies does have a 23.0% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season and change, but there are also seven hitters with a .194 ISO or better. Harris has a 19.2% strikeout rate in this same timeframe, but he also allows a lot of contact and power. Plus Citizens Bank Park is very offense friendly when it is warm and humid, like it will be tonight with some late afternoon storms clearing around first pitch.
Harris has four, three, three, two, three, five and three strikeouts over his last six outings. The hope for tonight is that the Phillies send him to the showers early before he collects that back breaking fourth strikeout.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Friday, July 12
The early-evening three-game slate has elevated precipitation risk in Philadelphia, though things do clear up later in the evening. For the featured slate, there is a similar outlook for both Baltimore and New York. Be sure to check back with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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