Tuesday keeps the week rolling with an eight-game featured slate, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is going with the whole enchilada on taco Tuesday, with a 14 -game featured slate at 6:40 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Yusei Kikuchi and Garret Crochet as the key arms to build around. For stacks, the Orioles and Astros are the teams to target.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 21
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (TOR vs. CHW)
Blue Jays vs. White Sox- 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
$9,300 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is begrudgingly giving the featured endorsement to LHP Yusei Kikuchi. The 32-year-old lefty has been a solid contributor in his six MLB campaigns, but he does not have truly overpowering stuff and he can be quite hittable at times.
In his 686 career innings in The Show, the former Japanese league star has 686 strikeouts
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Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Garret Crochet (CHW at TOR)
White Sox at Blue Jays – 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
$9,500 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
In late-April, LHP Garret Crochet had a rough three-game stretch where he allowed 17 runs in 11.2 innings, with four round-trippers. This resulted in a .327/.431/.694 triple-slash line, with an unsightly 13.11 ERA, 2.051 WHIP and 6.11 FIP. The silver lining however was a whopping 19 strikeouts, which equates to 14.6 per nine innings.
Over his last four starts, the soon-to-be 26-year-old southpaw has logged 22 innings with a 1.23 ERA, 0.773 WHIP and 2.15 FIP, with a .165/.205/.279 triple-slash line, while still recording an eye-popping 30 strikeouts, for a stellar 12.3 per nine innings rate.
Where it gets interesting in this matchup, is that Toronto projects to have only one batter in the lineup with a strikeout rate greater than 20% against southpaws. Crochet is a bit of a late-bloomer, having been a top-three prospect with Chicago, though he was expected to break onto the scene back in 2021. He was an adequate reliever, but the team saw enough potential that they decided to convert him into a starter. That has take a little bit of time, but does look like it will pay major dividends if his trajectory continues. He should be able to make his own magic today when it comes to conjuring strikeouts from the Toronto lineup, but we have seen this magician go up in a cloud of smoke more than once this season.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Books (OAK vs. COL)
Athletics vs. Rockies – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$6,400 at DraftKings
$7,300 at FanDuel
$29 at Yahoo
Aaron Brooks, the baseball player, not the NFL quarterback or NBA guard, made his MLB debut all the way back in 2014. Over the ensuing decade he has pitched in the majors for four different franchises, including Oakland twice. All told he has a scant 187 innings in The Show over the last decade, with another 229.2 innings in the KBO and a whopping 1,089.0 in the minors for six MLB organizations.
Brooks turned 34 last month and has a lot of mileage on his arm. Still he showed enough in holding the Astros to just three runs in Houston over seven innings, that he is getting another turn in the rotation. This is likely the last hurrah for Brooks, and when he ultimately struggles, will likely be designated for release, rather than going back to the minors.
So where is the endorsement for Brooks? Well look no further than the ridiculously low 3.3 implied run total for the Colorado Rockies.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Astros vs. Angels – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Canning
Top Stack%: 7.4%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has given the Astros a C+ for last night’s effort as a recommended stack. The team did put up seven runs, with a round-tripper, a double, three runs and a trio of stolen bases going to the core options. Of course catcher Yanier Diaz was a target, but after falling to the eight-hole, not many gamers rostered him or Mauricio Dubon.
So naturally, this duo combined for five of the 10 hits, five runs and a homer, plus a double. Sometimes with baseball, even when you are right, you are still wrong. Tonight we go back to the ‘Stros who get a matchup again RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning.
To his credit, over his last three starts, Canning has been top-notch, with a 1.53 ERA in 17.2 innings. However, the six walks and only 13 strikeouts are not in his favor and prior to this stretch, his 7.45 ERA through six starts is more indicative of what kind of a season we can expect from the 28-year-old.
Continue to ride with the core four of Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez an Alex Bregman. Catcher Yainer Diaz is always in play to round out full-stacks and as we saw last night, it doesn’t matter where he is in the lineup. Jake Meyers is once again a cheap power bat, but there are better one-offs out there at less premium positions than outfield.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles at Cardinals – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Lance Lynn
Top Stack%: 5.7%
We will not be alone when targeting the Batters of Birdland, so be sure to find some differentiation elsewhere in your lineups. There is a slight chance of precipitation, so be sure to monitor forecasts for potential arrival times of the weather. The bail out spot would be turning to the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves, who will be wildly popular.
Last year RHP Lance Lynn led the league with 44 home runs, which was more than Lucast Giolito (41) and Jordan Lyles (39). That 2.16 home runs per nine innings rate was similar both with Chicago and his late-season dalliance with the Dodgers. Things are better this season on the power front with his 1.19 home runs per nine being more in line with what he has ceded the last five seasons in aggregate. Lynn turned 37 earlier this month and while he will still have DFS appeal in some matchups, this is certainly not one of them.
Baltimore leads the league in home runs, is third with 11 triples and in the top-10 for doubles and RBIs. The team is also 11th with 33 stolen bases, though four different players have between five and eight.
Lynn had major issues with lefties last year (.272 ISO) and they are still trouble this season (.180 ISO). This does not play in the venerable veteran’s favor with Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins all swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate. That of course doesn’t include switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Adley Rutschman who are two of the three best hitters on the team. The Redbirds relievers are mediocre at best, which presents an excellent opportunity for the Orioles.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Today we have the opportunity to look to RHP Clarke Schmidt in the sports wagering world, for the under on his 6.5 strikeouts prop. This is currently available at +105 on DraftKings and Fantistics, with HardRock offering +110.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -104 “true odds,” so the +105 line brings a steady 4.3% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with “sharp” book Pinnacle down at -123.
Though the Mariners lead the league in strikeouts, Schmidt is projected for 5.7 today, which is under the seven he needs to get for this under to fail.
In nine outings this season, he has seven or more four times, with fewer than five three times.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Tuesday, May 21
St. Louis is worth monitoring as a postponement is on the table, so be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
