Friday keeps the early portion of the super-holiday weekend rolling, with a 12-game featured slate, with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo and what appears to be a grab-bag ooptions for an SP2 on this wild post-holiday slate. The Coors Field Extravaganza continues to dominate the decision-making, though there are some shaky pitchers to attack on Friday.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 5
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs. MIL)
Braves vs. Giants – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$10,800 at DraftKings
$11,200 at FanDuel
$57 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Tyler Glasnow as the highest projected hurler. Obviously that is no surprise, but the Cy Young Award contender has a 20% probability of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and Yahoo, with a 10% likelihood on FanDuel. There are five other pitchers with a 15% chance to be a top two pitcher on DraftKings and Yahoo, with the blue site having four with a 7% or better probability.
That means there are plenty of choices tonight, particularly for the cost conscious crew. Milwaukee has been a top-seven offense this season, but the Brewers are coming off a series in Colorado, without any off-day giving them a chance to reacclimate to how pitches will behave slightly differently than they do at altitude. Pre-game batting practice is not going to be enough to ready this squad to face a pitcher of Glasnow’s caliber.
The 30-year-old ace is coming off his shortest outing of the season, having been pulled after 61 pitches and just three innings, after getting spun around for five runs in San Francisco. Some of this was sequencing and bad luck, since he allowed only nine baserunners, with seven hits (three doubles), two walks and only one very lonely strikeout.
Clearly it was just one of those games, but that is still a little concerning, considering the salary cap hit for rostering Glasnow. Despite this being his ninth MLB campaign, injuries have always been an issue for Glasnow and his 103 frames are the third most of his career (120, 111.2). We should do what we can to have Glasnow anchoring “cash games” (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.), but there are plenty of tournament pivots and of course a game in Coors Field with some spendy bats.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo (SEA vs. TOR)
Mariners vs. Blue Jays – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
Toronto is 4-12 in the last 16 games and the offense has been sputtering with three or fewer runs in nine of these matchups. RHP Luis Castillo had a rough June, with a 5.12 ERA in his six starts, but he still ceded only four round-trippers in 33.1 innings and at least had a decent 28 strikeouts
Even with these struggles, the 31-year-old still has a 3.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a tick shy of a strikeout per inning. FanDuel and DraftKings have assigned appropriate salaries for Castillo tonight, but Yahoo is giving gamers a good 15-20% discount. Castillo has 10 quality starts in his 16 outings, and that milestone is definitely in play tonight.
Main Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Albert Suarez (BAL at OAK)
Orioles at Athletics – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,600 at DraftKings
$7,400 at FanDuel
$35 at Yahoo
Tonight RHP Albert Suarez is the discount dandy on DraftKings and FanDuel. Since he is just $3 cheaper than Castillo, he is not particularly appealing on Yahoo.
The weather is going to be around 70 degrees at first pitch, with a 5-to-10 mph hour breeze to centerfield. Thankfully that is reasonable, because Suarez tends to allow a lot of fly balls.
The Oakland offense has plenty of pop, but trouble getting on base tends to make solo shots palatable. The A’s have the seventh most home runs in the league, but the second most strikeouts and third fewest runs. In his seven starts since moving into the rotation, Suarez has just 6.35 strikeouts per nine innings, with 4.24 walks, but only 0.26 home runs per nine. He is flirting on the edge of disaster with a 32.7% groundball rate, but for the bold – the salary savings is solid. On the late-slate, it does make sense to craft a power trio from Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Shae Langoliers, Brent Rooker and Zack Gelof. There is always a chance that walks could be an issue for Suarez and the Athletics are able to connect with runners on base, but of course that is still factored into the 3.8 team total.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Detroit Tigers
Tigers at Reds – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Carson Spiers
DK Top Stack %: 10.4%
FD Top Stack %: 9.7%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has Kansas City with a 12% probability of being the best scoring team tonight, in Colorado against LHP Kyle Freeland. The Yankees are third, with a 7-8% likelihood of garnering those honors, but there is some weather concern in New York. Surprisingly, the Tigers have the second best projection, while also being a top-two value stack across the main DFS sites.
The Motor City Kitties get a terrific park upgrade from their Detroit digs and a strong matchup against rookie RHP Carson Spiers. Last year Spiers had a cup of coffee, logging 13 innings in The Show, with another 37.1 this season. Even giving the 26-year-old credit for his time as a reliever, he still has only 7.33 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has at least exhibited some control and been able to limit home runs. He is the 26th ranked prospect in the Cincinnati system, which does not bode well for his outlook tonight.
Riley Greene and Matt Vierling are the dynamic duo. The rest of the Tigers have been somewhat toothless this year, but Parker Meadows, Colt Keith and Wenceel Perez are still young and have flashed talent. They can be augmented with veteran Mark Canha or catcher Carson Kelly for full-stacks.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles at Athletics – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Hogan Harris
DK Top Stack %: 4.8%
FD Top Stack %: 4.9%
This is a downgrade in ballparks for the Orioles, though considering Baltimore leads the league by 15 home runs and 71 total bases, that should not be much of a concern. LHP Hogan Harris is a decent pitcher, having outperformed expectations of being the 32nd ranked prospect for the A’s.
The worry is that he has flyball tendencies, which of course can quickly lead to home runs. In his 102.2 MLB innings, he has a 1.40 home runs per nine innings rate, with a pedestrian 7.63 strikeouts and troublesome combination of 3.68 walks and 1.4 home runs per nine. In his last start, he was knocked around by Arizona, giving up 10 hits, with just three strikeouts in 3.1 innings. In his last four games, he has lasted a total of 19.1 innings, while allowing four dingers and getting just 13 strikeouts.
Harris of course allows more power to opposite-handed batsmen, but his fellow lefties have been productive as well. Gunner Henderson and Colton Cowser are likely to be the two Baltimore bats, swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate, with Henderson boasting a .396 wOBA and .259 ISO this season in 121 same-handed matchups.
Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg all have ample power and provide flexibility by representing several different positions. For differentiation Jorge Mateo is always fun to roster as he can swipe a bag if presented with any opportunities. Once upon a time, James McCann was a cheap power option against lefties and though he has not displayed that this year, he is another differentiation option for the late-slate.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tanner Bibee is someone to target in the sports wagering world for his under 6.5 strikeouts, which is available at +105 on Fliff and +100 on Points Bet
OddsShopper shows this bet has-106 “true odds” for Bibee to fall under this threshold, which brings a stellar 5.4% expected ROI on Fliff and a 3.4% expected ROI on PointsBet
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers and Unibet at -127, which is indicative of a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI.
Bibee has gotten his fair share of strikeouts this season, including at least seven in five of his last six games. The Giants have done a decent job of limiting strikeouts to right-handed pitching, with the projected lineup having a 20.8% strikeout rate this season.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Friday, July 5
For the featured slate, Cincinnati and New York are worth mentioning, particularly with the game in Yankee Stadium carrying about a 50% chance of a late-start or other delay. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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