Saturday brings all-day baseball, culminating in a featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo has elected to start their featured contests as 7:20 p.m. ET, dropping the games in the 6 o’clock hour. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Kevin Gausman and Reid Detmers as today’s aces, with a mix of hitters throughout the slate.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 6
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Reid Detmers vs. Boston Red Sox — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $8,600 | Yahoo $45
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Reid Detmers as a top-three option across the main DFS sites for the Saturday night action. He is most favorably priced on FanDuel, while he gets love on DraftKings and Yahoo for his strikeout potential. After getting a cup of coffee in 2021, Detmers landed a spot in the Anaheim rotation for most of 2022.
The highlight for him was the no-hitter against Tampa Bay in which he allowed just two walks and recorded two strikeouts. Just six starts later, he was sent down to the minors after a rough patch that saw him suffer three multi-home run games and struggle with strikeouts. All it took was one refresher course with the Salt Lake City Bees, as he struck out 14 on just 90 pitches.
Last year, Detmers boasted a 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings rate, with a respectable 1.2 home runs per nine. So far this season, the Boston offense has been average, though strikeouts are available, making this an interesting spot to employee the 24-year-old southpaw. For the projected lineup, five different Red Sox hitters struck out at a 28.1% clip or higher last season against lefties.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman at New York Yankees — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,400 | Yahoo $47
Having spent the better part of nine seasons in the American League East, RHP Kevin Gausman is no stranger to facing the Yankees. In fact, he has squared off against them 31 times, which is the most of any team in his career. Last year Gausman finished third in the American League Cy Young Award voting and also made his second career All-Star Game appearance. He led the AL with 237 strikeouts and an 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings rate.
Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto have the best career results against Gausman, but the hurler holds the upper hand against the remainder of the roster. In his first start, the 33-year-old logged 69 pitches against Tampa Bay, striking out six hitters, with the only blemish being a solo shot to Randy Arozarena. Gausman gives up the occasional longball when challenging hitters, but that is acceptable with a 1.1 per nine innings rate for his entire career.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City vs. RHP Chris Flexen — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool naturally has the Atlanta offense along with the Coors Field Extravaganza as the top three teams in play tonight. There are going to be sustained winds in Denver, up to the 30-to-40 mph range, which may lead to a postponement. Atlanta gets a great matchup against RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who will be a good pitcher one day, but he is still early in the learning curve.
Kansas City is not an obvious offense to recommend, but their giant 5.5 implied run total makes them stand out. The Royals will be going against RHP Chris Flexen, who turned around his career with one season in the KBO after washing out with the Mets. The Mariners took a chance on him in 2021, and he stayed with them until getting released midway through last season after falling apart again with a 7.71 ERA. Colorado took a chance on him, basically to eat some late-season innings, but the Rockies declined to sign the baseball nomad. Chicago stepped into the mix, getting him on a cheap $1.75 million single-year deal, and that brings us to today.
Home runs and a lack of strikeouts are what ended Flexen’s tenure with both the Mets and Mariners, which is just what DFS gamers look for in opposing pitchers. Batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate have excellent power results against Flexen, which bodes well for the heart of the Kansas City order.
Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Salvador Perez and Nelson Velazquez are the preferred plays. Hunter Renfroe is a cheap power one-off and veteran infielder Adam Frazier is in the mix as a punt play as well.
Late Slate Target: San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Michael King — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:05 p.m. ET
This recommendation is going against the Stokastic tools, which actually like RHP Michael King. The 29-year-old was a key piece in the Juan Soto deal, having spent the last four seasons in the Bronx, working mostly as a reliever, but also getting 20 starts, including nine last year. Most projection systems have him for just over a strikeout per inning in the rotation, but there is an elevated risk of walks and home runs as he will be throwing more pitches per appearance than he was as a reliever.
San Francisco will be putting as many left-handed bats in the lineup as possible, though we know that LaMont Wade and to a lesser extent Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto will be pinch-hit candidates. Fortunately, San Diego used two of their three left-handed relievers yesterday, so that decreases the risk a bit for this trio.
Jorge Soler has raw power that plays in any park, even by the Bay and Matt Chapman is a nice addition to the offense as well as rookie Jung Hoo Lee, who began his professional career in the KBO in 2017 as an 18-year-old.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
While RHP Kevin Gausman is going to be a featured play in the DFS world, there is also value for his under seven strikeouts at -102 in the sports wagering market. OddsShopper shows this bet has -118 “true odds,” and the -102 line currently available at FanDuel provides a stellar 7% expected return on investment (ROI). This wager looks amazing when compared to sharp book Pinnacle, which is at -140.
Gausman was dealing with a shoulder issue in spring training, which delayed his progress. Conventional thinking has him in the 80-to-85 pitch range, which may not be enough to collect seven strikeouts. It also makes sense that the Blue Jays will have a quick hook for their star pitcher, if things go sideways. It is a long season and there is no need for the team to push Gausman too quickly.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, April 6 — MLB DFS Picks
Keep tabs on the windy weather in Colorado and the estimated arrival time of a rain squal in Kansas City that could impact the later innings of that tilt.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show. Also get 30% off the Stokastic MLB Packages including DFS Sims, Lineup Generator and Data, with promo code DINGER
