The Wednesday action has the biggest tournament on DraftKings and FanDuel getting under way in the seven o’clock hour. Yahoo is taking a different approach, with a five-game featured-slate locking at 8:10 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Framber Valdez and Logan Webb as tonight’s key arms, with the Boston bats popping in the models.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 10
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez (HOU vs. MIA)
Astros vs. Marlins – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,300 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Framber Valdez as the most desirable pitcher for Wednesday. The groundball artist is back above 60%, after slipping to the mid-50% range last season. Sadly, he is down two strikeouts per nine innings from last year and his 7.1 this season is also below his 8.6 career ratio.
The 30-year-old has 15 starts under his belt this season, with his worst games being five, five and eight earned runs. He also has nine quality starts and seven outings where he held the opposition to two or fewer runs. The Marlins do not have much power at all and they set up poorly against southpaws. Plus Valdez is essentially the exact opposite of RHP Ronel Blanco, who kept Miami in check allowing only two runs, on a pair of solo shots, over seven innings, with seven strikeouts.
Other than Bryan De La Cruz and veteran switch-hitter Josh Bell, there are no worrisome bats in the lineup. The back of the order will be manned by the inexperienced trio of Xavier Edwards, Ali Sanchez and Vidal Brujan, with this motely crew collectively having fewer than 100 plate appearances against southpaws since the start of last year and 70% of those belong to Brujan.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb (SF vs. TOR)
Giants vs. Blue Jays – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$10,100 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
Toronto is back to scuffling, with a 2-4 record over the last half dozen games and just 17 runs scored. In his last 17 starts, RHP Logan Webb has allowed four runs four times, three runs once and two or fewer on 12 occasions. He also has 14 quality starts, which is only one behind the league leaders.
The Blue Jays projected lineup has a 17% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last year, but strikeouts are not the main appeal for Webb. His best asset is a wicked groundball rate, that has been around 60% the last few years, with an efficient pitching style that helps him get extra outs, closing the book on the seventh inning 10 times, the eighth once and the sixth five times. The 27-year-old is far from a sexy DFS option, but the safety is very appealing.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Nick Pivetta (BOS vs. OAK)
Red Sox vs. Athletics – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$9,600 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
n/a at Yahoo
On Thursday, RHP Nick Pivetta tied a season high, getting 10 strikeouts against the Marlins in Miami. Tonight he takes on the second most K-happy team in the league, while also having his team nearly two-to-one favorites to garner the victory over Oakland.
Last night the Athletics were a little spicy, getting five runs off of starter RHP Brayan Bello, but also striking out 11 time. The team got four more runs off the bullpen, with four additional strikeouts. Pivetta is just leaving his prime, but at 31-years-old, he should have a few more effective seasons as a starter. This matchup is a good one for the Canadian native, and anything short of a quality start with half a dozen strikeouts will be disappointing. That is also why he is in the Wild Card section, because anything less than a quality start with a victory bonus is not going to “pay off” his salary on DraftKings or FanDuel.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Athletics – 5.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP JP Sears
DK Top Stack %: 10.8%
FD Top Stack %: 12.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has Boston bursting ahead of the pack for the second-consecutive day, this time against an Oakland lefty. Last night the BoSox bopped their way to 12 runs, hanging eight on RHP Joey Estes. Though the team had “only” two home runs, the four doubles an a triple helped them be one of the most successful DFS teams on Tuesday.
This is not going to be a fun matchup for LHP JP Sears, with Tyler O’Neill looking like Babe Ruth at the plate, with a .481 wOBA an .353 ISO in his last 81 plate appearances against southpaws. Rafael Devers is fine in same-handed matchups, with outfielder Rob Refsnyder actually flashing some pop in the form of doubles, when he see a promotion to the top of the order against lefties.
Connor Wong is an excellent backstop option, with Romy Gonzalez and Ceddanne Rafaela the punts du jour. Finally, for those feeling frisky, if he is in the lineup, Dominic Smith has light tower power against pitchers of either-handedness … when he actually gets the bat on the ball.
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Late Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves at Diamondbacks – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Slade Cecconi
DK Top Stack %: 6.3%
FD Top Stack %: 5.9%
Atlanta is looking like an off-the board play on the featured-slate, with gamers landing on the Texas Rangers in Anaheim against RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning, or the New York Mets, who are hosting LHP Patrick Corbin.
Though RHP Slade Cecconi has allowed only two home runs in his last five starts, he has been saddled with a 6.97 ERA in 20.2 innings. Now, according to his 2.83 FIP and 3.28 xFIP he has been unlucky with hit sequencing, but this is still a tough Atlanta lineup, even without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II.
Over the last 30 days, Austin Riley (.436 wOBA, .348 ISO, 105 PAs), Marcell Ozuna (.366 wOBA, .220 ISO, 106 PAs), Matt Olson (.326 wOBA, .185 ISO, 102 PAs), Ozzie Albies (.369 wOBA, .311 ISO, 110 PAs) and former Seattle top prospect Jarred Kelenic (.369 wOBA, .232 ISO, 105 PAs) have been crushing the ball. Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall are capable veterans and Orlando Arcia and catcher Sean Murphy, recent All-Stars. This is going to be a long or short night for Cecconi, depending on one’s vantage point.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Bryce Miller is someone to target against in the sports wagering world for his under 3.5 strikeouts, which is available at +112 on Caesers.
New users at Caesers get a $1,000 first bet back opportunity, click here for details.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +101 “true odds” for Miller to fall under this threshold, which brings an enticing 5.6% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Hard Rock and Fliff all the way down at a -125 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI.
Miller has six strikeouts in each of his last two starts, but he has been under four in three of his las six outings. While he projects for 3.7 strikeouts tonight, that is still below the four needed for this under to fail. This is a coinflip bet at even money, so getting the +112 at Caesers is crucial. The projected lineup for San Diego has just a 17% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, while Miller is at a 22.7% rate over his last 950 batters faced. This is going to be a tight rope walk, but one that still is a winning wager when considering a long-term time horizon, when it can be placed at “plus” money.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Wednesday, July 10
There are several venues looking at rain for the early action, with Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit having elevated risk, with the Motor City looking to have the highest chance of seeing a delay. The featured-slate only has Cincinnati with any in-game precipitation and the probability is rather low.
Be sure to know what you are dealing with and give things a once over with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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