Monday’s MLB fun has a seven-game featured slate locking at 7:20 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Dylan Cease and Reid Detmers as key arms, with the Atlanta and San Diego offenses being the top stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 22
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease at Colorado Rockies — 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $52
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool laughs in the face of anyone thinking that RHP Dylan Cease in Coors Field can classified as a “sneaky” play. FanDuel and Yahoo have him with the highest salary cap hit of any pitcher on the featured slate. Think about that, a pitcher in Coors Field is carrying an ace-level salary. DraftKings has a reasonable $8,700, but Cease is also projected to be on just over 40% of all lineups, while also having at 26.1% chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher tonight. In plainer terms, Cease is likely overrepresented in DraftKings tournaments.
This weekend in three games against Seattle, the Rockies scored a scant four runs. In the second game of Sunday’s doubleheader, RHP Emerson Hancock came into the game with a 7.98 ERA, yet allowed just one earned run in six innings against Colorado. That is a whole new level of ineptness from an already putrid offense.
Kris Bryant is on the injured list and outfielder Brenton Doyle was scratched from the nightcap with a bruised chest. The only hitters who are any threat to Cease would be the trio of lefties consisting of veteran Charlie Blackmon, third baseman Ryan McMahan and outfielder Nolan Jones. The latter two would start for most teams in the league, but Blackmon is 37-years-old and five seasons removed from his last All-Star Game appearance.
The main concern with Cease this season is that he has 11 walks in 22.2 innings, otherwise he has been solid – though his 1.99 ERA is also pristine with three of the eight runs scored on his watch being unearned. Cease struggled last year after finishing second in the 2022 American League Cy Young voting, but it looks like he is back on track. It is 20 degrees warmer today than it was for the weekend action, but this still looks like a good situation for Cease.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Reid Detmers vs. Baltimore Orioles — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,900 | Yahoo $49
While it is never fun going against the Baltimore offense, LHP Reid Detmers looks like he is leveling-up this season. On the featured-slate there are pivots such as RHP Lance Lynn and LHP Yusei Kikuchi who rate out a little better than Detmers, but that is by the narrowest of margins.
Detmers has yet to allow a longball and opposing offenses have plated just four runs and managed three doubles across 22.2 innings. The 24-year-old has a whopping 30 strikeouts on the season, which has led to him being one of the most productive fantasy performers. The Orioles are on the young side, which can lead to inconsistent performances. They also have sever strikeout candidates and while this is a matchup fraught with peril, there is a path for Detmers to be one of the more productive pitchers tonight.
Depending on how popular Detmers is tonight, there could be some merit in building a few stacks against him for direct leverage purposes.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves vs. LHP Ryan Weathers — 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Atlanta offense on par with the Padres in Coors Field. LHP Ryan Weathers has been on a heater, but everything has been coming up roses. That is not something that has really ever occurred in the prior history of performance for the southpaw. Today will be the 36th start for the 24-year-old and his luck is going to run out sooner, rather than later. His 2.70 ERA is masking a 4.93 xERA and 4.24 xFIP. He also has a 50% increase in strikeouts as compared to last season, so this is a small sample size of favorable results.
In his last 255 lefty-righty matchups, Weathers has a paltry 16.1% strikeout rate, with an elevated 10.6% walk rate and .221 ISO. Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna are the obvious options, with Matt Olson one of the best in the game against fellow lefties. Look for Orlando Arcia to be promoted up to the front of the order, with Michael Harris II sliding back down to the bottom-third. The slick fielding shortstop is a steal on DraftKings ($4,000) and FanDuel ($3.000) if he lands in the two-hole tonight.
Adam Duvall and catcher Travis d’Arnaud are differentiations options from the back-half of the lineup.
Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Albert Suarez — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
There are baseball nomads and then there is the long and winding career path of RHP Albert Suarez. The 34-year-old first popped up in the minor leagues as an 18-year-old back in 2008 with the Tampa organization. He saw action in 40 games across the 2016 and 2017 seasons with the San Francisco Giants, then it was off the the Japanese and Korean leagues, before getting a call from the Orioles this season.
Suarez survived his first start last Wednesday, with 5.2 scoreless innings against the Minnesota Twins. There will be spectacular spontaneous combustions along the way, with a good chance of one happening in Anaheim tonight.
Clearly the Angels are nowhere near the team they were the last few years when Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani were shoring up the offense. In the least surprising news of the season, oft-injured Anthony Rendon is once again hurt and landed on the injured list this weekend with a strained hamstring. In equally surprising news, Trout already has five stolen bases, which is one fewer than he had in the four preceding seasons combined.
Trout is still amazing at the plate, though his eight home runs have been solo shots with six coming while the bases were empty. That is the downside of Trout hitting in the two-hole, but it also gives him five at bats most games. Taylor Ward is a solid play and even Miguel Sano, who was entirely out of the league last season, should get a couple good looks from Suarez tonight. For those interested in a full-stack, catcher Logan O’Hoppe and infielders Luis Rengifo and Brandon Drury, provide options across a variety of positions.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Targeting the under for RHP Keaton Winn’s 4.5 strikouts prop is a savvy strategy. OddsShopper shows this bet has -110 “true odds,” and the +100line currently available at Hard Rock provides a interesting 5.0% expected return on investment (ROI).
There is a 52% probability of this wager occurring, so getting the “plus” money is crucial for sustained bankroll success.
Over his last 261 batters faced, Winn has a 19.9% strikeout rate. Today he projects for right around four strikeouts, which is one shy of the five needed to surpass the over. Winn projects as a below-average strikeout creator with around 7.3 per nine innings. The projected lineup for the Mets has a 20.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last year, which is about 10% below average.
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Final Thoughts for Monday , April 22 — MLB DFS Picks
There should not be any issues with precipitation, though be sure to check in with your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any urgent updates.
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