Thursday is getaway day, which brings a variety of early featured slates on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Zack Wheeler as key arms, with the Los Angeles and Seattle offenses being the top stacks, plus the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 25
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Washington Nationals — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel n/a | Yahoo $44
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool will never understand the process, or lack thereof, that FanDuel uses for choosing the featured-slate docket. Baseball is the one sport where it is not overly challenging to include games inside of a four- or five-hour window since most teams post lineups three hours prior to first pitch and, for the most part, day-to-day rosters are stable.
Shout out to the Nationals, who have a 10-13 record, though things are not looking up after Lane Thomas landed on the injured list yesterday with a sprained left MCL. That now leaves leadoff man CJ Abrams as the only All-Star-caliber bat, and the dropoff to the next-best options is basically a chasm. There is human wind machine Joey Gallo, Joey Meneses who reached The Show in 2022 as a 30-year-old rookie, the well-traveled Eddie Rosario and catcher Riley Adams, who is at least worth a mention — well, for Washington anyway.
Though RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in his first big league season, he has been plying his trade since 2017, when he joined the Japanese League as an 18-year-old. He signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers. Yamamoto projects as a top-10 starter in the league, and while he may scuffle here and there, the talent is off the charts.
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Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler at Cincinnati Reds — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $54
Though the preference is to shy away from pitchers in the Great American Ballpark, exceptions can be made based on slate, matchup and, in this case, the weather. The forecast has temperatures in the mid-50s with a light 6 to 10 mph breeze in from left field. This, combined with RHP Zack Wheeler actually being a frontline starter, makes for a desirable 3.7 implied run total for Cincinnati.
This iteration of the Reds does have power with a .191 ISO compiled by the projected lineup against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season. This collection of crushers also brings along a 24.4% strikeout rate, which plays in favor of Wheeler. There are “K’s” in his game and in his name, with the former being more important for DFS purposes. Wheeler has a wicked 33.7% strikeout rate across his last 427 same-handed matchups while typically muting the upside of lefties, as evidenced by a 22.0% strikeout rate and .150 ISO in the same timeframe.
The Reds will be running out at least four or five batters with the platoon advantage in Will Benson, Nick Martini, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley and, of course, Elly De La Cruz. This group has above-average strikeout rates against right-handed pitching, plus TJ Friedl and Matt McLain are both on the injured list, and Jonathan India and Fraley were out of the lineup yesterday due to illness.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners at LHP Andrew Heaney — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool naturally has the Coors Field Extravaganza as the most desirable stacking environment, so let’s take a look at some of the secondary priorities. LHP Andrew Heaney has long been a talented pitcher but one who rarely stays healthy. Now in his age-32 season, that talent level is diminishing, and the injuries have caught up. The trusted projection models have Heaney still with just over a strikeout per inning, though with around 1.5 home runs per nine innings and a 3.3 walk rate. Heaney’s fastball is now down to a career-low 91 mph.
Seattle should be rolling out an entire right-handed lineup, which bodes well for the M’s, as Heaney has ceded a .195 ISO in his last 614 opposite-handed matchups. Julio Rodriguez finally hit his first home run of the season, so hopefully this portends an upcoming heater. Rodriguez reached 30 home runs in 140 games, which set a new franchise record. He also set a league record with 17 hits in a four-game span last August. Oh, and he owns the single-round Home Run Derby record after launching 41 in the second round of the contest last July.
Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver and Ty France all have above-average results when holding the platoon advantage, and switch-hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco do excellent work from the right side of the plate. When looking for differentiation from other Seattle stacks, do not sleep on Dylan Moore and Luis Urias at the bottom of the order for cheap extra-base-hit upside.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers at LHP MacKenzie Gore — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
This has been a good season for LHP MacKenzie Gore, with the 25-year-old southpaw racking up 27 strikeouts in 20 innings, allowing just one home run and walking six total. To be clear, the Dodgers are really a tertiary stack this afternoon, but one that is unlikely to pick up a lot of traction.
Gore projects for just over 10 strikeouts per nine innings, which is borderline elite and a slight uptick over his first two seasons. Control has been an issue, and while he has been excellent this season, it is still a small sample size and Los Angeles is a loaded offense. Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez are the dynamic duo swinging the stick from the right side of the plate, while Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are the lefty launchers who have each been elite against same-handed hurlers. Catcher Will Smith is a fine selection to round out full stacks, and, of course, he is a tremendous one-off on DraftKings and Yahoo, which require gamers to roster a backstop.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Targeting the under for RHP Dakota Hudson’s 2.5 strikeouts prop does not feel great because it is such a low figure. Backers of this wager need Hudson to record no more than two strikeouts. OddsShopper shows this bet has -106 “true odds,” and the +115 line currently available at Hard Rock provides a tremendous 10.8% expected return on investment (ROI).
There is a 592% probability of this wager coming through, so we really need to get this wager at plus money to make it worth the risk. Looking at the under 3.5 strikeouts lines on Unibet and BetRivers at -230, we can see that is triangulating on something just over two strikeouts for Hudson.
Hudson is a ground ball pitcher, with just over a 50% rate over his career. He has a low 12.7% strikeout rate since the start of last season, and he is projecting for just over two strikeouts today. In his four starts this season, he has notched one, five, four and two strikeouts. In his 15 starts or outings of at least three innings, Hudson had three strikeouts on four occasions, one with seven and then 10 of two or fewer.
San Diego has an 18% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus, which also works against Hudson.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, April 25 — MLB DFS Picks
Kansas City looks to be the only location today that has any precipitation challenges; there are other pivots both in the player pool as well as withing the same first pitch window. For those waiting on additional information, be sure to check in with your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any urgent updates.
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