Sunday has the MLB action starting at 1:35 p.m. ET, with a nine-game featured slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo has chosen to focus their main contests around the five games beginning at 4:07 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Tarik Skubal and veteran Nathan Eovaldi as key hurlers on the feauted-slate, with young Grayson Rodriguez leading the way for the late-afternoon action. The Guardians stand out as a strong offense on the main-slate, with the Dodgers looking dynamite against LHP Dallas Keuchel in the later game set.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 7
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Tarik Skubal (DET at CIN)
Tigers at Reds – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$10,700 at FanDuel
$53 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Tarik Skubal as the premiere performer today among all those toeing the rubber. Four times this season, the 27-year-old southpaw has allowed four runs. In his other 13 starts, he has been under that threshold. This has him dropping from a spectacular 2.80 ERA, down to 2.45 this season with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 10-plus strikeouts per nine innings once again.
Most impressive for Skubal is that he has a 16-3 record over his last 32 starts. That accomplishment is worthy of a call-out, considering the state of the Detroit offense the last few seasons. Skubal and RHP Corbin Burnes are the American League Cy Young Award frontrunners, but it is going to take a strong performance this afternoon for Skubal to hold serve (cwidt, a tennis pun during Wimbledon!).
If Skubal is able to navigate the power trio of Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson and veteran switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario, he should be able to make his DFS supporters happy. Jonathan India (22.8%), Elly De La Cruz (42.1%) and Stuart Fairchild (25.6) are the three Red who have struck out at a higher than league average clip over their last 200 plate appearances against lefties.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (TEX vs. TB)
Rangers vs. Rays – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,700 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
After Skubal, the next best pitching options are either RHP Reynaldo Lopez, in Atlanta against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies who are without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto or RHP Nathan Eovaldi in a home matchup against the meanderingly mercurial Tampa offense. Over the last 13 games, the Rays have scored five or more runs on four occasions, landing on exactly five runs in three of those outings.
The salaries are similar so it really is a personal preference situation. It is also viable to drop down from Skubal and roll with this duo on DraftKings and Yahoo, using the salary cap relief to bolster a couple of bats. Last year Tampa had a .776 OPS and the Rays scored 860 runs, each figure being the fourth-best in the league. They were led by Yandy Diaz who was seventh in the league with a .932 OPS and Isaac Paredes who was 22nd with a .840 OPS. Josh Lowe (.835), Wander Franco (.819), Harold Ramirez (.813) and Randy Arozarena (.789), each were stellar with 400-plus at bats, but not quite enough to officially qualify for the leaderboard.
This year Parades (.830) continues to chug along, but Diaz (.721) has dropped back his lowest rate since his rookie season in 2017, Lowe (.698) has struggled with injuries, Arozarena (.675) has been lost at the plate, Franco is suspended and Ramirez was dropped by the team in June.
Eovaldi continues chugging along in his age-34 season, with three or less earned runs in 11 of 14 (79%) starts. He continues to be effective with a strikeout per inning and he should be savvy enough with his 90-to-95 pitch workload, to close the book on the fifth inning, keeping him in contention for the win bonus.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (BAL at OAK)
Orioles at Athletics – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
$10,400 at DraftKings
$11,500 at FanDuel
$59 at Yahoo
Shout out to the Oakland offense, which put up 19 runs on Saturday against Baltimore in a 19-8 victory. That represents just over 5% of the total runs scored by the Athletics for the season. Eight were earned off rookie RHP Cade Povich, with starter LHP Cole Irving coming in for four innings, ceding five runs and veteran catcher James McCann pitching for the second time in his career, closing out the ninth, including giving up a home run to fellow-catcher Kyle McCann (no relation).
Sunday is a new day and with RHP Grayson Rodriguez on the mound, expect the feel-good vibes to be short-lived for the A’s. Sunday will be the 39th career start for Rodriguez, who has improved across the board from his rookie campaign with a 3.45 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The only knock against Rodriguez, is that he has slipped below a strikeout per inning over his last six outings, with only 8.6 per nine. In five of these six tilts, he has ceded two or fewer runs, so this is more of a nitpicking exercise than anything substantive.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians vs. Giants – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Hayden Birdsong
DK Top Stack %: 7.6%
FD Top Stack %: 7.7%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Guardians at home today, with a matchup against rookie RHP Hayden Birdsong, who will be making his third big league start. The 22-year-old was a sixth-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft, after two seasons with the Eastern Illinois Panthers in the Ohio Valley Conference.
Birdsong got his share of strikeouts in the minors, but his command is suspect and he lacks any dominant pitch. He is definitely worthy of being on an MLB roster, but his path towards relevance over the next half decade will likely be as a multi-inning reliever, with the occasional spot start. Injuries to Blake Snell, Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray and Keaton Winn have left San Francisco desperate for starters, so Birdsong will be walking the plank again this afternoon.
Across his 9.2 innings, in Atlanta and against the Cubs, Birdsong ceded a trio of taters, along with five walks, accompanied by 10 strikeouts. Leadoff man Steven Kwan has been on a heater with a .445 wOBA and a .279 ISO in his last 69 opposite-handed matchups. Rookie Daniel Scheermann has been tasting success as well with a .327 wOBA and a .217 ISO in his last 56 lefty-righty matchups. Jose Ramirez continues to thrive as one of the most complete hitters in the game from either side of the plate and of course Josh Naylor is a home run waiting to happen.
Outside of the core four, differentiation can be found from the bottom of the order with catcher Josh Naylor and youngster Jhonkensy Noel. Cleveland has quietly climbed into the top-10 for runs scored and longballs, while ranking 13th in total bases. The team is also ninth in stolen bases, with Ramirez (16) and Andres Gimenez (14) leading the way.
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Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Brewers – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Dallas Keuchel
DK Top Stack %: 20.2%
FD Top Stack %: 20.4%
There are a trio of offenses worthy of our consideration as the primary stack for this four-game afternoon affair, with the Batters of Birdland in Oakland, pecking at RHP Mitch Spence and the Padres hosting batting practice pitcher RHP Ryne Nelson. However, since I do not know how many times I will get to write about LHP Dallas Keuchel this season, it is carpe diem time.
Keuchel won the American League Cy Young Award back in 2015, when he was with the Houston Astros, winning 20 games, while also leading the league with 232 innings and a 1.017 WHIP. He has five Gold Gloves to his credit, along with a pair of All-Star Game appearances. Unfortunately, his last relevant season was during the pandemic shortened 2020 campaign, when he had a career best 1.99 ERA, in 11 starts.
In the subsequent 3-plus seasons, the veteran lefty has made a grand total of 57 appearances, while wearing uniforms for the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Twins and now the Brewers. During these 269.2 innings, he has cleared nearly $38 million dollars, with $36 million being paid by the ChiSox. In this timeframe, he has a 6.31 ERA, 5.33 xERA and a 5.24 FIP. To his credit, he still has maintained a 52% groundball rate, but the 5.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 1.4 home runs per nine innings in this timeframe are disastrous to say the least.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Jose Berrios is someone to target in the sports wagering world for his under 5.5 strikeouts, which is available at -104 on FanDuel.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -110 “true odds” for Berrios to fall under this threshold, which brings a steady 2.5% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced “sharp” book Pinnacle all the way down with a punitive -132 line, which maths out to a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI.
Yes, the Mariners lead the league in strikeouts and essentially the entire projected lineup is worse than league average against right-handed pitching, save for Josh Rojas. Julio Rodriguez left Saturday’s game with a quad injury, so he will not be in the lineup today. So why pick on Berrios? Well his strikeouts are at a career low 6.4 per nine innings, just over two short of last year and his career average. In his last half dozen starts, he has a total of 19 strikeouts in 34.2 innings, which looks even scarier by appearance. From his most recent game with one strikeout, in reverse chronological order, the 30-year-old has eight, three, one, four and two in the other six games.
For this wager to lose, he will need to record half a dozen strikeouts this afternoon, something he has achieved seven times in his 18 (39%) starts. Even more damning, four of those seven “successful” outings, saw the erstwhile ace with exactly half a dozen whiffs.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Sunday, July 7
Atlanta once again has summer showers in the vicinity of Truist Park, though it is unlikely there is anything more than a delay. For the afternoon action, there is also likely to be some rain in the Denver metro area, though an in-game delay of about an hour would be the worst expected outcome. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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