Tuesday’s MLB action brings a 10-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Pablo Lopez and Logan Webb as key arms, with the Atlanta and San Diego offenses being the top stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 23
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Pablo Lopez vs. Chicago White Sox — 2.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $49
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool loves RHP Pablo Lopez tonight, as it would seem that the Chicago White Sox offense is going to be among the dregs of the league this season. Yoan Moncada and Max Stassi are on the 60-day injured list, while Luis Robert Jr. is likely out until June as he deals with a hip issue. Chicago has just three wins on the season, and the team has plated more than four runners just four times while being shut out eight times.
Lopez was outstanding in his first season with the Twins, which was great for Minnesota fans given a favorite in batting champion Luis Arraez was part of the trade package that brought Lopez over from the Marlins. Since the deal, he has struck out 28.3% of opposing hitters while being very stingy on the power front with a .293 wOBA and .140 ISO. The projected lineup for the ChiSox has a 27.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season, which is abysmal. Enjoy!
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb vs. New York Mets — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $42
Oddly enough, at least with the early projection run, RHP Logan Webb is in a passel of pitchers vying for the third-most popularity. Lopez, of course, is first, surprisingly RHP Michael King of San Diego is second, and then it is a scrum with Webb, RHPs Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman and LHP Max Fried.
King feels a little risky, both for the game being in Coors Field and the 10 strikeouts he had in his last start that were more of an anomaly than a new baseline expectation. He was a key part of the Juan Soto trade coming to the Padres from the Yankees, and he should be good for close to a strikeout per inning this season, but it still feels like irrational exuberance for him to be so popular. Of course, the Rockies have been pretty dreadful with just 11 total runs in their last six Coors Field games.
Last night the Mets managed to get just four hits and one run off of RHP Keaton Winn, with Pete Alonso getting a solo shot in the fifth inning. Webb is a far more talented pitcher than Winn, and he is the obvious late-slate option while also being a steady selection on the feature slate.
New York does not offer up a lot of strikeouts, with the projected lineup generating a 20.9% whiff rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change. However, there is a distinct lack of power in the lineup, so as long as Webb avoids Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and the mercurial DJ Stewart, he should be in line for a quality start.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Tommy Henry — 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the St. Louis offense on par with the San Diego Padres in Coors Field. Opposing starter LHP Tommy Henry actually managed to not allow a home run in his most recent start, which was a first this season. Of course, he was still knocked around for nine hits and one walk on his way to ceding five runs in 4.1 innings.
Adam Duvall and catcher Travis d’Arnaud are differentiations options from the back half of the lineup. Henry essentially profiles as a younger Madison Bumgarner, basically the guy he replaced in the rotation last season. Unfortunately, he is not the good version of MadBum, but more along the lines of the broken down, post-injury issues MadBum.
Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are in their mid-30s now, but they can still get it done against southpaws, with both having sustained success throughout their careers when holding the platoon advantage. Catcher Willson Contreras has been outstanding, fully overcoming his slow start last year after joining the Cardinals, and the talk of him being a designated hitter only now seems laughable. While he will never be the same game-caller that legend Yadier Molina was, not many backstops will.
For gamers interested in more than the aforementioned trio, backup catcher Ivan Herrera and shortstop Masyn Winn can be considered for full stacks. Though, it is a savvy strategy to just focus on the key three and creating a second stack for differentiation purposes.
Late Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles at RHP Griffin Canning — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
In his last start, RHP Griffin Canning allowed two runs in 5.1 innings, lowering his ERA to a crisp 8.05, which is like throwing batting practice. While Canning has been worse against same-handed hitters for a while, he is not very good against lefties and Baltimore should have seven or eight in the lineup tonight.
It helps having phenomenal switch-hitters like Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander who can flip sides with ease. The Orioles set up well against right-handed pitching, with Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn and Colton Cowser each boasting a .200 ISO or better with the platoon advantage.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Targeting the under for LHP Tommy Henry’s 4.5 strikeouts prop is a another way to take advantage of his mediocre skillset, in addition to attacking him in the DFS world. OddsShopper shows this bet has -158 “true odds,” and the -130 line currently available at Fanatics and PointsBet provides a favorable 8.3% expected return on investment (ROI).
There is a 61% probability of this wager coming through, which is why there is such heavy juice in the line, but it still is favorable, particularly at -130,
In his four starts this season, Henry has four, five, six and three strikeouts (50%); last year he had five or more strikeouts in 7 of 16 (43.8%) starts. Henry projects for just over 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings when combining the various modeling systems, which is below average. Additionally, the Redbirds are pretty selective against southpaws, with an 11.9% walk rate and 19.2% strikeout rate since the start of last season.
Tonight Henry projects for just under four strikeouts, which is a decent cushion against the five he needs to upset the apple cart for those on the under.
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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, April 23 — MLB DFS Picks
The early-evening sub-slate has some precipitation concerns for both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, with the potential for delays definitely on the table. The featured slate will all but assuredly see rain in Cleveland, so monitor that situation. Chicago and St. Louis have mid-day storm coverage, though it looks to be gone by this evening. As always, be sure to check in with your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any urgent updates.
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