Wednesday brings split-slate action on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Luis Gil as the core pitching option today, with the alternates hard to confirm given so many weather situations in play. Gavin Stone is a solid fallback option, though he could be wildly popular, and he has a lofty salary for this delicious matchup. Minnesota and St. Louis stand out as the primary stacking selections.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 26
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Gil (NYY at NYM)
Yankees at Mets – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$10,300 at DraftKings
$10,400 at FanDuel
$46 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is tepidly endorsing RHP Luis Gil as the best option on the featured slate now that LHP Chris Sale has had his start pushed back to Thursday. The Mets won the first game of this Subway Series iteration, with the Yankees coming up short in a 9-7 Citi Field loss after furiously plating five runs in the eighth.
After missing most of 2022 and all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, RHP Luis Gil has been stellar this season, with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings across his 15 starts. The uncertainty of how he would respond after the layoff had Gil rated out as the 12th-best prospect for the Yankees. It is safe to say he is clearly outperforming those expectations.
Baltimore dropped seven runs on Gil last Thursday, though his only other appearance where he ceded more than three earned runs was at the end of April, when the Brew Crew mashed a pair of home runs in Milwaukee on their way to five earned runs.
The Mets have won 14 of their last 18 games, though Starling Marte is going to miss at least a month with a knee injury. Still, at the core, these are the #LOLMets, who just saw closer Edwin Diaz suspended for 10 games after getting tossed on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball for failing the foreign substance-hand inspection prior to taking the mound.
New York’s National League franchise has the fifth-most home runs in the league, though it is right around average when it comes to total bases and runs scored while doing a solid job of limiting strikeouts. Citi Field is a very pitching-friendly venue, and the Mets are scoring nearly two more runs per game when they are away from their home park (5.71 vs. 3.88).
If Gil can keep the bases relatively free, he should be able to survive a couple of doubles and the inevitable home run. There is some rain in the forecast, though it is possible the starters could get their work in prior to any delays. Consider LHP Sean Manaea a wild card option against the Yankees, who are without Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Gavin Stone (LAD at CHW)
Dodgers at White Sox – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
If there were less weather risk in Boston, RHP Kutter Crawford would be the next man up in a matchup with the scuffling Toronto offense. The main reason for RHP Gavin Stone receiving the wild card designation is that he is carrying the salary of a frontline starter across the DFS sites. This, of course, is matchup driven, but it also takes out a lot of the “upside profit” for Stone.
This has been a good season so far for the 25-year-old, and he has been delivering for the depleted Los Angeles rotation that is missing Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Dustin May. Stone is the 13th-ranked prospect in the Dodgers system, with a projected arrival time of 2024. He was a fifth-round selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, and he steadily climbed the MiLB ladder. Last season, he had 100.2 innings at Triple-A, then another 31 after being called up to The Show. This year, he broke camp with the parent club since depth was an issue.
Stone has been underperforming his strikeout projection, with just seven per nine innings, though he has surpassed expectations when it comes to walks and power. Tonight he will be facing the worst offense in the league, but at a minimum he really needs a quality start and the win bonus to be much of a difference maker at his current salary.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Brady Singer (KC vs. MIA)
Royals vs. Marlins – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$36 at Yahoo
This season, in his three “worst” outings, RHP Brady Singer has allowed 15 “Ernies” in 17 combined innings. He also has 11 starts with two or fewer runs. The 27-year-old has had some power issues against lefties over the last few seasons, but he has a knack for usually staying out of trouble.
Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez are really the only power threats that Miami can proffer from the left side of the plate. Switch-hitter Josh Bell, of course, is worthy of a mention, but his days of consistent power are long behind him and he is mostly a gap hitter at this stage of his career.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Twins at Diamondbacks – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ryne Nelson
DK Top Stack %: 11.8%
FD Top Stack %: 11.6%
On the good news front, RHP Ryne Nelson has a solid 3.60 ERA in his last six outings, spanning 35 innings. Unfortunately, he has only 20 strikeouts but 11 walks in this timeframe while also allowing five longballs.
Power is not an issue for this iteration of the Minnesota Twins, and the projected lineup has a .180 ISO against right-handed pitching, dating back to the start of last year. Nelson hemorrhages power to batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate, which has most of the Twinkies in play.
Royce Lewis has been ridiculous with 10 home runs and three doubles in just 70 at-bats, earning his lofty $6,200 salary on DraftKings. Fortunately, Trevor Larnach and switch-hitter Willi Castro should be next to him in the lineup, providing synergistic savings. Max Kepler, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton comprise the next tier of options, giving maximum flexibility for large-field roster construction.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals vs. Braves – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Bryce Elder
DK Top Stack %: 4.8%
FD Top Stack %: 4.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the St. Louis Cardinals today against RHP Bryce Elder, who has been recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to take the mound for the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader.
The 25-year-old started out in the minors this season after not being able to crack the rotation. This was a bit of a surprise for Elder, who was an All-Star last year. He did enough on the farm to get recalled after just a few outings. However, Atlanta saw enough in his five starts to banish him back to Gwinnett to work on some things after suffering a 6.46 ERA and 5.39 FIP across 23.2 innings.
Elder was the seventh-ranked prospect for Atlanta, getting his initial call-up in 2022. The main knock on him was a fastball that sits around 90 mph, which does not do enough to accentuate his other offerings, allowing opposing hitters to wait on specific pitches.
Nolan Arenado is dinged up, while Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman are on the injured list. Fortunately, catcher Willson Contreras is back after returning from a fractured forearm suffered in early May. He had been crushing same-handed pitching prior to his injury and hopefully will pick things up quickly. Alec Burleson should get a boost in the batting order, along with Brendon Donovan. Add in veteran Paul Goldschmidt and we have the makings of a solid stack. Nolan Gorman is also a consideration, depending on where he lands in the lineup, as he could potentially be near the top with Burleson sliding back a few spots.
Early Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers
Rangers at Brewers – 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Dallas Keuchel
DK Top Stack %: 8.3%
FD Top Stack %: 8.6%
This afternoon, Texas will be facing a former Cy Young Award winner in LHP Dallas Keuchel. Most DFS gamers are likely unaware, but Keuchel was a two-time All-Star in his heyday with Houston, making the squad in 2015 and 2017 while also winning the Cy Young in 2015.
Of course, that was then and this is now. Since wrapping up his stint with the Astros after the 2018 season, the 36-year-old has pitched for the Braves, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Twins. Last year with Minnesota, he made six starts and 10 total appearances spanning 37.2 innings, posting a dreadful 5.97 ERA and 18 walks, though he did cede only three round-trippers. All told, he had 25 earned runs and 25 strikeouts.
Keuchel signed a minor league deal with Seattle, and he has been with Triple-A Tacoma prior to being acquired for cash yesterday by Milwaukee. Do not let the 3.93 ERA fool you; walks and a lack of strikeouts are still an issue, and crooked numbers will be a problem this afternoon if Keuchel is unable to coax Texas into a lot of weak ground balls.
PLAY EVERYONE! Seriously, anyone in a Texas uniform today is a viable option in this batting practice scenario.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight the under on Erick Fedde’s 4.5 strikeouts prop is one worth attacking. Currently this is available at +130 on BetMGM.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +119 “true odds” for under 4.5 strikeouts, which works out to a solid 5.0% expected ROI.
While Fedde is projected for just over 4.8 strikeouts, that is still a tick below the five he needs for this wager to fail.
We can see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by sharp book Pinnacle all the way down to a -101 line, which is beyond punitive.
Fedde made a remarkable turnaround spending a year in the KBO, winning the pitching triple crown while with the NC Dinos. Of course, the Korean league falls somewhere between Double and Triple-A on the talent level and well below the Los Angeles Dodgers’ vaunted offense. In his last nine starts, Fedde has recorded five or more strikeouts five (55.6%) times.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Wednesday, June 26
Yikes, there are a lot of weather challenges across the Midwest and East Coast. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
