Tuesday brings a robust featured slate with a 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Fredy Peralta and Logan Webb as key arms, with the Diamondbacks and Twins being top stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 30
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,400 | Yahoo $53
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Freddy Peralta as the best pitcher tonight. This should not be a surprise, and the DFS algorithms are not cutting the frontline starter any slack. Since moving into the rotation on a full-time basis in 2021, Peralta has logged 416.1 innings and an electric 11.44 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing a paltry 1.06 home runs per nine. His 3.39 ERA is right in line with his 3.39 FIP and 3.52 xFIP.
Last year Yandy Diaz was seventh in the league with a .932 OPS, and Isaac Paredes was 22nd with an .840 OPS. Diaz has been dealing with injuries, but he also is lost at the plate with a .597 OPS. Paredes is producing at a similar rate to last year, but without many runners on base in front of him, it has been empty DFS production. Randy Arozarena has not even been able to hit his weight with a .148/.227/.250 triple-slash line that is just anemic. The team is also without Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe (no relation) and miss the platoon duo of Manuel Magot and Luke Raley.
It seems that after years of conjuring up player after player to slot into the offense, the magic has run out for the Rays.
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Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb at Boston Red Sox — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $55
Clearly FanDuel and Yahoo see RHP Logan Webb as an ace, while DraftKings seems to think highly of the Boston Red Sox. The return of Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill does boost the Boston bats, but the likes of Bobby Dalbec and Ceddanne Rafaela getting prominent playing time definitely drags down the back of the order.
The salary for Webb takes out a lot of the risk on DraftKings, though on FanDuel and Yahoo, RHP Mitch Keller in Oakland is a viable pivot. For those feeling frisky, RHP Luis Castillo projects well, but he is facing Atlanta’s All-Star-laden lineup. Against Castillo is RHP Reynaldo Lopez, who somehow has allowed just two runs in 25 innings this season. This quartet is a tight grouping in the fantasy projections, so looking at where their collective popularity is projected closer to lock will be key.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Jon Gray vs. Washington Nationals — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,300 | FanDuel $7,800 | Yahoo $38
This is a salary-saving recommendation, but even on FanDuel, RHP Jon Gray is at a significant discount considering a great matchup against Washington. The Nationals have been on a heater, sweeping the Marlins in Miami over a four-game series, with 30 runs scored in the final three games. That represents a quarter of their season run total and is not sustainable. Lane Thomas and Victor Robles are on the injured list, which has led to Nick Senzel, Trey Lipscomb and Jacob Young.
Left-handed power is an issue for Gray, but the Nationals really have just CJ Abrams and journeyman Eddie Rosario as the biggest threats. Jesse Winker looks like he is coming out of a two-year slump, but that is hardly worth counting on, and then there is Luis Garcia, who is hitting cleanup. Garcia was a top prospect for the depleted Washington minor league system, and he is more of a gap-power guy than someone who knocks the ball out of the park.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins at RHP Michael Soroka — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has flagged the Minnesota Twins as being in a prime spot against RHP Michael Soroka. Sadly for Soroka, the change of teams did not bring a change in his results. He has allowed a home run in each of his six starts for the ChiSox, with a whopping 19 walks in just 29.0 innings. Even more damning are the 13 strikeouts, which is just too terrifying of an event to come up with any appropriate adjectives.
The Twinkies are a boom/bust crew, but Carlos Correa and Max Kepler returning to action definitely make this a deep lineup. Alex Kirilloff will likely be at the top of the order, and while he is a non-traditional leadoff hitter, he is all but assure of five plate appearances on the road. Catcher Ryan Jeffers has been outstanding since the start of last season, with power against pitchers of either handedness. Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien and Byron Buxton provide options at various positions and salary points, making the Twins a terrific team to stack.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Landon Knack — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight, giving fans an enjoyable evening of 90-degree temperatures. For Phoenix, that is not too shabby considering the highs will be in the 110s in a few weeks. This also gives a bump to the offenses, and while a lot of gamers will be rightfully drawn to the trio of MVPs at the top of the Dodgers lineup, do not sleep on the Diamondbacks.
RHP Landon Knack will likely move back to the minors or maybe the bullpen when RHP Walker Buehler returns, and the 26-year-old rookie is only the 23rd-ranked prospect in the Los Angeles farm system. Control is not really an issue for Knack, and he also has a decent fastball but no true “out” pitch he can call on when necessary. He also projects to allow above-average home runs, which could lead to issues the second time through a lineup.
Arizona has a potent lineup with Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, switch-hitter Ketel Marte and slugger Christian Walker. That is the trio to build around, but there is also an excellent supporting cast. Joc Pederson should be in the middle of the order with a right-hander on the mound, and that usually garners a promotion up the lineup for Jake McCarthy, who is lightning fast on the basepaths. Veterans Eugenio Suarez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are competent against same-handed hurlers and can be used to craft full stacks.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can look to RHP Carlos Carrasco for the under on his 3.5 strikeouts prop, which is currently available on ESPN BET with an intriguing +105 line.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -110 “true odds,” and the +105 line provides a stellar 7.4% expected ROI. We can see that the 52% probability of him falling short of this threshold is close to a coinflip, so we want to get the best line possible.
Carrasco projects for just over three strikeouts, so this wager is not without risk. The 37-year-old has a paltry 16.4% strikeout rate across his last 524 batters faced. The projected lineup for the Astros has a low 18.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last year, with a borderline elite .178 ISO. Considering Carrasco has a .223 ISO allowed in this same timeframe, the hope is that Houston sends him to the showers early.
In his five starts this season, the venerable veteran has logged four, five, two, six and three whiffs. Until his last start he had avoided allowing any longballs, but Boston got to him for a trio of taters last Wednesday.
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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, April 30 — MLB DFS Picks
The East Coast has a few spots to watch, with Baltimore, Boston and New York on the list. Most of the precipitation looks to be late in the game windows, but Mother Nature could change her mind. Be sure to check your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any updates.
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