Saturday welcomes the weekend with a nine-game featured slate locking at 7:10 p.m. ET FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo. Today we’ll explore the MLB DFS projections and utilize Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Corbin Burnes and Justin Steele as key aces, while the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals provide alternatives to the Coors Field Extravaganza for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 10
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP: Corbin Burnes (BAL at TB)
Orioles at Rays – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
$9,300 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
$47 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Corbin Burnes projecting as the best all-around option, across the various DFS sites and formats. The former Cy Young Award winner is having a strong season, with a 2.63 ERA that ranks second in the league, along with plenty of strikeouts and just 1.06 baserunners per inning.
Tropicana Field is one of the more pitching-friendly venues in the league, with the Tampa offense also looking very peckish relative to the last half-decade. Trading Isaac Paredes for Christopher Morel was basically a wash on the field, but picking up Dylan Carlson off the scrap heap is not going to come close to replacing Randy Arozarena.
The team also lost depth this offseason, moving on from Luke Raley and Manuel Margot, plus, of course, losing he-who-shall-not-be-named to abysmal decision-making off the field. The team also waived Harold Ramirez in June, after the journeyman saw a dramatic decrease in production from his strong 2024 campaign.
Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe (no relation) are still around, but the projected lineup for tonight has a 26.1% strikeout rate this season against right-handed hurlers, with a paltry .123 ISO. Burnes is the clear cash game (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) hurler and boasts tremendous tournament upside.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Justin Steele (CHC at CHW)
Cubs at White Sox – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$9,500 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
Tonight, any number of pitchers could be vying for secondary status, but all come with question marks. That leaves gamers sifting through the likes of Logan Gilbert, Sean Manaea, Paul Skenes and River Ryan for their SP2 or alternate to Burnes. After looking from different perspectives, LHP Justin Steele grades out slightly above his peers.
Last night, the White Sox made the Cubs sweat out a 7-6 victory after the Southsiders got to RHP Jameson Taillon. Steele is a far better pitcher across the board, both from a real-life and a DFS viewpoint. The ChiSox have now lost 23 of their last 24 games, with the probability higher than the organization would like, for crafting a third 14-plus game losing streak this season.
Steele did allow five runs to the Reds in Cincinnati and another five to Arizona last month. Aside from those two blemishes, the 29-year-old southpaw has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his last 14 appearances. Though the active roster for the White Sox has a solid 21.2% strikeout rate against lefties, they also have an 83 wRC+, which is ahead of only the muddling Miami Marlins.
Early Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Matt Waldron (SD at MIA)
Padres at Marlins – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
This afternoon, RHP Logan Webb has the best median fantasy point projection, with the Giants hosting Detroit in San Francisco. The ground baller should be able to take care of business and even has a slightly better fantasy point per dollar ratio than RHP Matt Waldron.
For those of you in season-long leagues, Waldron was on a surprising number of waiver wires this morning, making him a steal if you get to him before 1:05 p.m. ET.
Back to DFS, the lone practitioner of the knuckleball gets a nice matchup against the meandering Marlins. The roof will likely be closed today in Miami, which actually lessens the impact of the knuckleball, though it does not neutralize the pitch by any stretch.
Waldron has pushed the usage of this pitch up to nearly 40% of his portfolio, working in a fastball and a slider just enough to keep opposing hitters guessing. This will be the second time the Marlins have seen him, with Waldron pitching seven scoreless innings, with eight strikeouts, in San Diego at the end of May. That outing does not have much impact on this afternoon for the Marlins’ offense, since Miami has traded the top three hitters from that lineup and has released Tim Anderson.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Chicago Cubs
Cubs at White Sox – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Flexen
DK Top Stack %: 13.6%
FD Top Stack %: 13.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool encourages everyone to have some Atlanta exposure tonight, in a great matchup against RHP Dakota Hudson. Things will be a little tougher for the Rockies, who are facing LHP Max Fried tonight instead of RHP Grant Holmes.
While the Coors Field Extravaganza has just over a 25% probability of producing the highest-scoring team on the slate (Atlanta 20.3%, Colorado 4.9%), the Cubs look strong in the Battle of Chicago, with a 13.5% likelihood of being the top scoring team against RHP Chris Flexen.
In his last eight starts, Flexen has allowed eight home runs, with 17 walks and just 26 strikeouts, across 40.2 innings. There is no way to perfume this pig, he has been hog awful!
Speaking of awful and Chicago, this also can be applied to the bottom of the order for the Cubs. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson can at least make contact against fellow righties, but they only have power against southpaws. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in the lineup for his defense and whoever is at catcher is pretty much a non-contributor.
The top five are glorious, however, with a nice mix of lefties and righties, all with above-average power against right-handed hurlers. Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch and switch-hitter Ian Happ will be bringing the lumber from the left side of the plate. Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes are nice complementary pieces to round out full stacks.
Looking to enhance your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Read Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to learn how to use simulations to fine-tune your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Cardinals – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Andre Pallante
DK Top Stack %: 6.2%
FD Top Stack %: 6.5%
Keep in mind that this is an early evening game in Kansas City, with temperatures still in the mid-80s around first pitch. RHP Andre Pallante has been adequate as he converts from a reliever to a full-time starter. The 25-year-old has done a decent job limiting power, however, he lacks overall strikeout stuff and does not have a put-away pitch. This is reminiscent of many Redbird righties over the last decade.
Pallante always profiled as a multi-inning reliever or spot starter due to his excellent ground ball rate. It became necessary to have Pallante assume a role change after both RHP Lance Lynn was shelved with an injury.
Now that the Royals are back to full strength, the lineup is very deep. Clearly, Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Massey and Vinnie Pasquantino are the fab five, but MJ Melendez can make noise if he ever gets the bat on the ball.
At the bottom of the order, Kyle Isbel has cheap power, Maikel Garcia has stolen base upside and Freddy Fermin has floor as the backstop, closing out the pesky catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo while providing stacking synergy.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and elevate your MLB DFS picks with our in-depth Lineup Generator Guide!
Early Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
Padres at Marlins – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Roddery Munoz
DK Top Stack %: 15.5%
FD Top Stack %: 15.6%
In three of his last 12 starts, RHP Roddery Munoz has allowed at least six or more runs five times. In those games, the opposition has plated 31 runs, though technically five of those runs were unearned. In this stretch, he also has suffered 19 home runs, including six multi-home run games.
Munoz is a two-pitch pony, with decent fastball velocity and an adequate slider. Unfortunately, the fastball does not have a lot of movement or deception, which of course is a leading factor to Munoz’s 2.71 home runs per nine innings rate.
Focus on the boppers first, with Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar being the trio to target. Sadly, Xander Bogaerts has only a .100 ISO this season, well below his .154 ISO of last year and his .162 career rate. He still makes contact and has gap power, but, clearly, he is behind the rest of the team.
This is also a great spot for Luis Arraez, who is very familiar with the hitting environment in loanDepot Park. Do not sleep on Kyle Higashioka, even if he is at the back of the order. His power is underrated even though it is legitimate.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight LHP Max Fried is in Coors Field. Last night his counterpart RHP Grant Holmes gamely lasted five innings, allowing five runs – but crushing the hopes and dreams of his 4.5 under, with a whopping eight strikeouts.
Currently, the under on Fried’s 5.5 strikeouts prop stands out on BetMGM. where it is available at +120 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +111 “true odds” for Fried to stay under six strikeouts, which brings a 4.3% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -110 line, and that equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Fried projects for 5.4 strikeouts tonight, which is under the six needed for this wager to lose, but we can see that there is still only a 47% likelihood of the under coming through for this wager. That means getting the plus money is key, and currently the most widely available book with that offering is BetMGM.
In his last seven starts, Fried has recorded six, seven, four, four, four, six and three strikeouts. He will be hovering right around his prop line, which also makes things interesting when looking at Point Bet, where the threshold has increased to 6.5, with the under still slightly profitable at -160. The strikeouts are plentiful for the Rockies, with the projected lineup having a 27.1% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last two seasons. Ideally Fried ends up getting run from the game before collecting half a dozen strikeouts.
Once lineups are announced, betting opportunities can disappear in moments. Stay ahead with an OddsShopper subscription and seize these fleeting chances before they vanish.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Saturday, Aug. 10
Weather should not be too much of an issue, with Colorado and Washington the only two venues with any precipitation risk. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
