Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with an eight-game featured slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Bryce Miller and David Peterson as key arms, while the Yankees lead the way as the top projected offense, with the Seattle Mariners looking good as a contrarian club.
Still trying to find your MLB DFS edge? Luckily Stokastic has a new tool to help you get there — the MLB Sims Tool! With it, you can simulate any MLB DFS contest you are playing on a given night and see which lineups are the likeliest to be profitable. And if you need a head start on strategy, we’ve broken down how to use the MLB Sims Tool to create the best DFS lineups each night.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 12
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryce Miller (SEA vs. CHW)
Mariners vs. White Sox – 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$10,300 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
Tonight, gamers will get one last hurrah with a Seattle pitcher against the dilapidated Chicago offense. Yesterday RHP Jhonathan Diaz was two outs away from a quality start despite being an emergency call-up from the minors to fill in for RHP Bryan Woo. He did allow two home runs, but only three runs total, which is not the end of the world. The nine hits were more concerning, but not really from a replacement-level pitcher.
Tonight, RHP Bryce Miller will toe the rubber for the Mariners. He was gobsmacked in his last start, ceding seven runs in five innings to the Royals in Kansas City, though he has allowed more than four runs only twice this season.
This has been a solid sophomore campaign for the M’s, already recording seven quality starts in his 13 outings, compared to nine in 25 starts last year. The 25-year-old is decent on the strikeout front with close to one per inning, while adequately limiting power, as evidenced by just 30 home runs in his 38 career starts.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI at BOS)
Phillies at Red Sox – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$8,000 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Sonny Gray as a core play against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, though LHP Cristopher Sanchez rivals him when salaries are taken into account. Sanchez has allowed more than three runs only twice this season, with seven games of two or fewer and just eight runs in his last six appearances.
Boston should have Tyler O’Neill back tonight. They got Masataka Yoshida back yesterday after he missed six weeks. Rafael Devers also returned yesterday after missing most of the weekend with a sore knee. That is a big improvement for the Red Sox, but this trio could be a little rusty, and their projected supporting cast is far from daunting, with barely a .100 ISO against southpaws while striking out at a 28% clip.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: David Peterson (NYM vs. MIA)
Mets vs. Marlins – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$6,300 at DraftKings
$6,800 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
This will be the third MLB start this season for LHP David Peterson, who was rehabilitating in the minors after needing surgery on a left hip labrum. He had pitched in six games for 23.2 innings, which gave him a good baseline of 81 and 86 pitches in his two appearances.
Miami has plated the second-fewest runs in the league this season, though they are still 37 runs (12.8%) ahead of the White Sox. Trading Luis Arraez was the white flag moment over a month ago, but the remaining Marlins at least have been sporadically feisty, playing close to .500 ball over the last month. The team has more than four runs just once in the last 16 games, making Peterson a desirable SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at Royals – 6.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP David Lynch IV
DK Top Stack %: 22.5%
FD Top Stack %: 22.9%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the New York Yankees as the best team to target, with a matchup against LHP David Lynch IV. The team rang up 10 runs last night with RHP Brady Singer starting and tonight they get RHP Dan Altavilla as an appetizer before having a chance to feast against LHP David Lynch IV.
Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge both homered last night after getting a rest day on Monday. Juan Soto is back after missing a few games with a sore forearm, and though he didn’t get a hit last night, he had two walks and scored twice. This is a wicked trio, with Judge actually setting a Yahoo record for a hitter with a $32 salary.
Anthony Volpe profiles well against Lynch, with slumping Gleyber Torres looking decent as well. Alex Verdugo is not bad against fellow lefties, plus he will likely get one plate appearance against Altavilla. It is worth noting that Kansas City has a trio of southpaws in the bullpen, but they may not want to put them on the mound against Stanton and Judge. Even with 16 teams in action, New York has a one-in-five chance of being the most fantasy-friendly stack of the night. Simply irresistible.
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Late Slate Target: Seattle Mariners
Mariners vs. White Sox – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jonathan Cannon
DK Top Stack %: 6.3%
FD Top Stack %: 6.1%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is going back to the Mariners after taking a bit of a break. The matchup against RHP Jonathan Cannon is simply too tempting to stay away any longer. Cannon was knocked back to the minors after a three-start stint in April, which saw him end up with a 7.24 ERA, and 24, yes TWENTY-FOUR baserunners in 13.2 innings.
The 25-year-old did work three clean innings of relief last Friday, but that was against a watered-down Red Sox squad. Cannon was a third-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft and he advanced rapidly through the minors. This year he was decent in his 37.2 Triple-A innings, but he still projects as more of an innings-eater or spot starter than a regular member of the rotation.
Seattle continues to get by with terrific pitching and juuuuuuuust enough timely hitting to hold a 6.5-game lead over the rest of the American League West, despite only a +11 run differential. Though the team is mathematically out of the bottom third of the league for runs scored, they are just nine runs up from the fifth-worst team. Still, there is talent here, even if it is slumping. Julio Rodriguez has just five home runs and 25 RBIs on the season in 273 at-bats. For comparison, last September, he had eight home runs and 16 RBIs in 116 at-bats to go with seven and 30 in 105 August opportunities.
Cal Raleigh has been the most consistent contributor this season, with J.P. Crawford not too far behind, despite missing time with an injury. Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone are decent with the platoon advantage, and youngsters Ryan Bliss and Tyler Locklear should see action with Ty France and Jorge Polanco on the injured list and Dylan Moore also out on paternity leave. If Josh Rojas is in the two-hole, he is worthy of DFS consideration as well.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Outfielder Steven Kwan stands out in the OddsShopper model for the over on his 0.5 runs batted in prop. The best line is +310, currently posted on BetMGM and DraftKings.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +290 “true odds,” so the +310 line brings a steady 5.0% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with BetRivers and Unibet down at a paltry +275, which is a losing proposition. Be a savvy shopper!
Kwan may not get his RBI via a home run, particularly in a lefty-lefty matchup, but he has been outstanding this season, with a .430 wOBA in 49 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers. There is also the bonus of having this game in the Great American Ballpark, which tends to enhance scores and lengthen innings.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Wednesday, June 12
There is the potential for in-game rain in Boston, though coverage may not be enough for anything more than an inconvenient delay. It is worth one last doublecheck with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
