Saturday has a nine-game featured slate, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we explore our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to figure out how to create MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Brandon Pfaadt and Erick Fedde as top pitching options. The Diamondbacks and Astros also form a potent pair of stacks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 27
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Erick Fedde (CHW vs. SEA)
White Sox vs. Mariners – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,600 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool likes LHP Blake Snell against the visiting Colorado Rockies tonight, assuming the veteran southpaw is starting in the correct side of the doubleheader that will have him in the featured-slate player pool. Veteran RHP Kyle Gibson is also an option against the weak Washington offense, though there are some weather concerns in St. Louis.
The game that really stands out tonight is in Chicago, with the White Sox hosting the Seattle Mariners. The M’s cruised to a 10-0 victory last night, hitting back-to-back-to-back home runs off rookie RHP Drew Thorpe, who was hammered for eight runs in two-thirds of an inning. That outburst is more of an exception, than an expectation with Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford on the injured reserve. Tonight, Randy Arozarena is expected to make his debut with Seattle, but it will take more than that to improve this watered down lineup that is ahead of only the Miami Marlins (374 runs) and White Sox (324 runs). Seattle has tallied 400 runs this season while leading the league in strikeouts.
The season in Korea helped RHP Erick Fedde take time to reinvent his pitching approach. He changed his grip and throwing motion on a couple of his offerings. That has enabled the 31-year-old baseball nomad put together the best season of his career. Fedde’s 2.98 ERA is well below his 4.91 career mark, with his FIP 1.20 lower and his xFIP down by nearly half a run. Even though the league has more video on his revised approach, he still has outperformed expectations. The strikeouts are down, but that should not be an issue tonight against the K-happy M’s.
But wait, there’s more … RHP Bryan Woo has made only 10 appearances this season, dealing with a myriad of injuries. His strikeouts are down significantly to 6.2 per nine innings, which is well below his surprising 9.5 rate in his rookie campaign. The ChiSox are a mess on offense, but at his current salary, there is not much margin for error with Woo.
On DraftKings, he is $1,100 more than Fedde, making him a tournament option. He does have a $500 discount on FanDuel, though it is unlikely he clears the sixth inning, which will take him out of the running on the blue site for the crucial quality start bonus points. Yahoo has given Woo a 10% discount to Fedde, making it the best site to target the sophomore slinger.
In summary, Woo is behind Snell, Gibson, Fedde and our recommendation below. However, he is smack in the middle of the second wave of pitchers, including Shota Imanaga, Seth Lugo, Tyler Anderson and Aaron Civale.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARZ vs. PIT)
D’Backs vs. Pirates – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The improvement for RHP Brandon Pfaadt has been quick and looks like it is going to stick as a new baseline expectation. Similar to teammates and fellow RHPs Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, Pfaadt is a little better as a “real-life” pitcher than a DFS option, but that is driven by a good, but not great, strikeout rate.
Pfaadt’s run prevention has been tremendous, with only two runs in his last four starts, leading to a 3.74 ERA for the season. The 25-year-old has even better underlying metrics with a 3.25 xERA, 3.53 FIP and 3.73 xFIP. While he has 25 strikeouts in his last 23.1 innings, in the two starts prior to this stretch, he recorded only a pair of whiffs in 12.2 innings.
The projected Pittsburgh lineup is low on power threats against right-handed hurlers, with Oneil Cruz (.215 ISO, 270 PAs), Andrew McCutchen (.162 ISO, 265 PAs), Joshua Palacios (.189 ISO, 44 PAs) and Jack Suwinski (.150 ISO, 231 PAs) any sort of threat. Keep in mind Rowdy Tellez (.145 ISO, 240 PAs) is dinged up and Bryan Reynolds is away from the team on bereavement leave.
Early Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (SF vs. COL)
Braves at Mets – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$8,000 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
This afternoon, most gamers will be looking at RHP Kevin Gausman hosting the Texas Rangers in Toronto or RHP Zack Little and LHP Andrew Abbott who are squaring off in pitching friendly Tropicana Field. However, that means RHP Spencer Schwellenbach is likely to be overlooked, with the New York Mets earning a 4.5 implied run total.
The rookie is the second-ranked prospect in the Atlanta system, making the jump from Double-A to The Show this season, well in advance of his expected 2025 MLB arrival. He has an excellent fastball/slider combination, which sets up his curveball as a third pitch. The 24-year-old has been excellent with his control, with close to a strikeout per inning. It is only a 50.2 frame sample size, but in afternoon tournaments, Schwellenbach is an intriguing differentiation option, particular with the ballpark upgrade provided by Citi Field.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Want guidance on enhancing your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator, refer to Steve Buzzard’s tutorial on how to use simulations to improve lineup study for your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Astros vs. Dodgers – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Justin Wrobleski
DK Top Stack %: 7.4%
FD Top Stack %: 7.7%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool loves when the Astros are at home against a shaky lefty. Young LHP Justin Wrobleski will be making his fourth start in The Show, after spending last season in Single-A. The former 11th-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft has been lucky in his 14.1 innings, allowing just seven runs, despite serving up four round-trippers.
Wrobleski’s luck likely to run out, especially against Houston, which makes the Astros one of the more desirable stacks on Saturday.
Even with Kyle Tucker on the injured reserve, there are still several competent hitters in the lineup. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez are the usual suspects. The second wave of options includes Jake Meyers, Jeremy Pena and Mauricio Dubon, who help cover a variety of positions, while not breaking the bank. For those feeling frisky, Aledmys Diaz and Chas McCormick are extreme punt options.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
D’Backs vs. Pirates – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Marco Gonzales
DK Top Stack %: 5.9%
FD Top Stack %: 6.1%
Tonight will be only the sixth start of the season for LHP Marco Gonzales, who injured his forearm last year in his final season with the Mariners. After surgery and rehabilitation, he made three April appearances, before aggravating the issue, landing on the injured reserve for almost three months.
The 32-year-old lefty tallied 60 pitches in his start just prior to the All-Star Break, then he logged 84 on Sunday. Strikeouts are not part of the repertoire for the MLB nomad, who debuted back in 2014 with the St. Louis Cardinals. He has an above average groundball rate, but can get into trouble against power hitters who are able to get under the ball.
This season, Arizona has been a top-10 team against lefties, with above average power and excellent plate discipline. Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Christian Walker are the trio to target, along with catcher Gabriel Moreno if he lands in a prominent batting slot. Salary savings and cheap power upside can be found in Randal Grichuk, who played with Gonzales a million years ago in St. Louis. The journeyman outfielder should be in the lineup tonight, with Joc Pederson likely sitting with a lefty on the mound.
Early Slate Target: San Diego Padres
Padres at Orioles – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Dean Kremer
DK Top Stack %: 17.6%
FD Top Stack %: 16.4%
This afternoon is going to be a warm one, with the mercury pushing 90 degrees in Baltimore. That should have Camden Yards playing more to hitters, nullifying the outfield fence renovations of a couple years ago. Fernando Tatis Jr. is still on the injured reserve, but there is plenty to like from the Padres.
Manny Machado is back in his old stomping grounds, having spent the first seven seasons of his career with the Orioles. Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar all profile well against Kremer, making them the trio to target. Luis Arraez has a crazy low 2.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The two-time batting champion puts everything in play and should be on base a couple times this afternoon with a chance of standing at the plate with runners on base as well.
Arraez can be combined with Ha-Seong Kim and catcher Kyle Higashioka, who should be at the bottom of the order. That “wraparound” stack strategy is one that can provide differentiation from the many other San Diego stacks in the large field tournaments.
The Lineup Generator at Stokastic provides outstanding value! Learn how to maximize its potential to boost your MLB DFS picks alongside our other MLB DFS tools by exploring our Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight LHP Justin Wrobleski will be toeing the rubber for the Dodgers as they are in Houston, facing the Astros. Not only can we pick on Wrobleski with stacks in the DFS world, but we can double-down in the sports wagering market as well.
Currently, the under on his 3.5 strikeouts stands out on ESPN BET where it is available at +125 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has +111 “true odds” for Wrobleski to stay under four strikeouts, which brings a 6.8% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Bet Rivers all the way down at a -103 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 6% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
This is an excellent demonstration of how OddsShopper identifies opportunities by using a market-based approach, pitting the books against each other. We can see that Fliff also has a +125 line, while DraftKings is at +120, which still has a decent 4% expected ROI.
In his three starts, the 24-year-old has recorded five, four and four strikeouts, which is why getting the +125 line is key as this wager has a 47% probability of three or fewer strikeouts for Wrobleski. Injuries have pushed the youngster to make the jump to The Show, after spending all of last year in Single-A ball. The projected lineup for the Astros has a 17.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season and the hope is they are able to send Wrobleski to the showers, prior to a fourth strikeout.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can appear and disappear within minutes. Having an OddsShopper Premium subscription is crucial to making sure you are grabbing these fleeting chances.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Saturday, July 27
There is a little storm front in Missouri that could impact both Kansas City and St. Louis, though most likely a delay would be the main risk. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, check the top MLB Weather Report page for updates as the first pitch approaches.
Tune in to the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show today at 6 p.m. ET to lock in your MLB DFS picks — brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Join Underdog today with our link, and you will have your first deposit matched by as much as $250!
