MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 30
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Snell had a delayed start to the season before finally signing a contract with the Giants, then he had a pair of injury absences and was out on the paternity list as well. When available, he is having one of his most efficient seasons to date, with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings, a 3.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. If the 31-year-old southpaw had enough innings to qualify, he would be leading all starters in strikeouts per nine innings by 0.6, which is impressive in that context.
The active roster for Miami is now tied with the Chicago White Sox with a league-low 72 wRC+ against left-handed hurlers. That is a full standard deviation below the Pittsburgh Pirates (89 wRC+), which means that these two dreadful teams are creating runs 28% less efficiently than league average.
To its credit, the projected lineup for the Marlins has a 21.2% strikeout rate against lefties this season, which is around league average. Of course, it still has four players who strike out 25% or more, including journeymen Cristian Pache (31.4%) and Derek Hill (29.3%), who is masquerading as the cleanup hitter. Snell is enough of a veteran and premier strikeout artist that he should be able to create his own magic.
Kirby has allowed just 11 home runs this season, but six have been in his last four games. He also has five games with multiple home runs, which is more ironic since he has only ceded round-trippers in nine of his 27 starts. When the 26-year-old faced the Angels in mid-July, he allowed just two runs (one of which was unearned) across six innings with seven strikeouts. Over the last 30 days, Los Angeles has averaged 3.07 runs per game, which is the fourth fewest in the league during this stretch. The Halos also have the third-fewest home runs and fourth-most strikeouts. Enjoy!
In his recent four-game stint in Triple-A, the 29-year-old plodder logged 21.1 frames, a 4.22 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Across his 310.1 career innings in The Show, he has a 4.79 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and a strikeout per inning. As mentioned above, the ChiSox are tied with Miami for the worst WRC+ against lefties, and they hold the “honor” alone against right-handed pitching, with the active roster producing a 77 wRC+, well behind the 84 wRC+ of the Angels. Over the last 30 days, Chicago has the second-fewest runs and round-trippers, plating 2.92 runners per tilt. This is strictly a matchup-based play, which may also provide some direct leverage against the field, with The Masses likely turning to Megill in order to roster an ace and some Baltimore bats in Coors Field.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
Rookie RHP Jonathan Cannon has been about as advertised, which is a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater. Of course, for the ChiSox, that makes him a valuable asset in yet another lost season. Cannon has a paltry 6.3 strikeouts per nine, though his 2.8 walks per nine are reasonable. He allows a lot of balls in play, which, of course, can lead to some crooked numbers for top-shelf offenses.
Lefties have bombed Cannon with a .232 ISO, so the priority plays tonight will be Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Jesse Winker. Honorable mention for Jeff McNeil, who plays poorly when I recommend him, and when I besmirched his good name, he managed to have a double-dong performance. Caveat Emptor with that fella.
Pete Alonzo, veteran J.D. Martinez and upstart Mark Vientos comprise the second wave of options, along with catcher Francisco Alvarez.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Seattle Mariners
Anaheim also is promoting RHP Caden Dana, who will start on Sunday. That means two days of references about the Rocket City Trash Pandas. Aldegheri is set to become the first Italian-born-and-raised player to appear in an MLB game. Seattle has scored the third-fewest runs in the league at home this season (3.59), moving up six spots on the road (4.21), which is less impressive than the 0.6-run increase or a dramatic 17% jump when the team escapes T-Mobile Park.
J.P. Crawford has returned from a fractured right hand, which sidelined him for the last five weeks. Last night he had one walk and one run scored from his customary leadoff spot. This bumps Victor Robles — who filled in admirably considering he was a waiver claim after being released by the Washington Nationals — down to the nine-hole. That gives Seattle a long lineup, though one with no particularly feared hitter.
Julio Rodriguez has fallen off across the board in every category, and over the last 30 days he has an anemic .255 wOBA and a .103 ISO. Cal Raleigh has been the most consistent producer, with fellow switch-hitter Jorge Polanco surging over the last month. Randy Arozarena crushes lefties to the tune of a .365 wOBA and a .238 ISO this season, and platoon specialist Dylan Moore is a nice differentiation play.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Jake Irvin has been solid for the Nationals, but the Washington starter is someone to pick on in the sports wagering market for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetMGM where it is available at +110 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -103 “true odds” for the youngster to fall below five strikeouts, which works out to an excellent 6.6% expected ROI.
Tonight Irvin projects for just under 4.4 strikeouts against the Cubs, which gives a little wiggle room for those looking for his downside. He has a 51% chance of falling below the five whiffs needed for this wager to fail, which is why it is crucial to get the plus money.
For perspective, over his last 10 appearances, Irvin has recorded three, five, three, four, four, five, seven, three, two and eight punchouts. The projected lineup for Chicago has a 21.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, while Irvin sits at 20.5% this year and at 19.7% for the last 1,163 batters he has faced.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
