MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 18
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Pitching in San Francisco does benefit RHP Logan Webb, but his best attribute is inducing ground balls, which travels with him. Across the last four-plus seasons, he had an elite 58.8% ground ball rate while allowing a miniscule 0.6 home runs per nine innings. Though he does not have a great strikeout baseline, he was steady with an 8.2-per-nine rate in this timeframe, tending to feast on the weaker teams.
Strikeouts are an issue for the current available Angels, with only Trout, switch-hitter Luis Rengifo and Nolan Schanuel coming in below league average. The projected lineup has an abysmal 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the beginning of last year, which bodes well for Webb’s DFS upside. The Giants are also -150 road favorites against LHP Tyler Anderson, and Webb should be able to qualify not only for a win but also a quality start (at least six innings with three or fewer earned runs), which earns bonus points on FanDuel.
That has him currently as the second-most popular pitcher (26.1%), just behind RHP Freddy Peralta (27.5%) on DraftKings. The matchup still has him rating as the third-most represented arm (14.8%) on the blue site, so he is not exactly sneaky there either. If you want to have sneaky, then Yahoo is the place to go, where he is projected to be on less than 5% of all tournament rosters, even with the two-pitcher requirement. Just know that you are paying a premium.
Getting down to actual analysis, this is a good matchup despite being at altitude. The Rockies are without Thairo Estrada and oft-injured Kris Bryant, with Ezequiel Tovar (hip) day-to-day and Brenton Doyle (quad) away from the team on the bereavement list. The projected lineup has nearly a 25% strikeout rate against lefties and a sub-.100 ISO, which includes Coors Field production.
Peralta has a tricky matchup against the homer-happy Athletics, and while the current A’s have nine combined at-bats against him, Brent Rooker and Seth Brown each homered. RHP Bryan Woo is in Toronto, getting to face a struggling Blue Jays offense, though he is at an elevated salary, considering Seattle has a soft pitch limit of around 90 on the oft-injured strikeout artist.
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in play on the road in Texas, having allowed only three “Ernies” in his 22 innings, with two coming via solo home runs against Detroit and the Tigers also striking out 10 times against the international star. Lefties David Peterson and Carlos Rodon are each in play on the road; Peterson is in St. Louis against the Cardinals, who have just five home runs on the season against southpaws. The K-heavy Rodon has tournament upside, albeit with home run downside in George Steinbrenner Field against the Tampa Bay Rays.
So while there is not one true standout ace, there are several in play, so if that has Gore meeting your definition of sneaky, so be it.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
The Batters of Birdland have underperformed expectations in the early portion of the season, ranking in the top 10 for home runs, but the Orioles are merely average with total bases and runs scored. The team has only one round-tripper and five doubles in 136 at-bats against southpaws. That is going to change, and we will want to be early to the party.
Across his last 469 lefty-right matchups, Abbott ceded a 43.1% hard-hit rate, a .228 ISO and a 9.8% walk rate.
Aside from Gunnar Henderson, who can more than hold his own against fellow lefties, Baltimore projects to be a right-sided lineup.
Jordan Westburg, Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Mountcastle and switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman are the easy clicks at the top of the order, along with Henderson.
Journeyman catcher Gary Sanchez is a cheap power source who also fulfills the backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. The bottom of the order has potential with Ramon Laureano and Jorge Mateo each being effective when they have the platoon advantage. Mateo has a fun power-speed combo that can make him a discounted difference-maker when he is in the order, and each is fine as a one-off for salary relief or bringing a contrarian angle as part of a wraparound stack.
It is still early in the season, though it is worth pointing out that all eight Cincinnati relievers have pitched twice in the last 72 hours. Plus the bullpen is not exactly a group of shutdown types, populated mostly by well-traveled veterans.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Injuries have limited the former ace to just 212 innings since the start of 2021, which is just over a full-season of work in four-plus years. All of his offerings are down a couple ticks from his last healthy stretch, so although he maintained his strikeout numbers, it appears this year that he is tossing beachballs up to the plate.
This is still a small sample size, but it is going to be a tall order to right the ship against a trio of MVPs in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, along with All-Stars such as Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, Max Muncy and Michael Conforto. Even switch-hitting Tommy Edman and fourth outfielder Andy Pages are above average, with each likely moving up a couple spots in the order for lesser lineups.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Chase Dollander’s under 4.5 strikeouts prop tonight, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Dollander the best prospect in the Colorado system, ranking inside the top 20 on most industry lists. He was the ninth selection overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, spending one season at Georgia Southern and then two with the University of Tennessee. Though his only four innings at Triple-A came this season, he is pro ready as a 23-year-old. Tonight will be his third start in The Show and second at Coors Field.
The fire-baller has 13 strikeouts in 10.2 innings but is “announcing his presence with authority” has come at the cost of four home runs. The Nationals do not have an abundance of power, but there are enough Washington bats with pop to move the needle at altitude. The projected lineup has a 17.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season and an above-average 8.5% walk rate. Ideally, the team will be able to have Dollander burn through his pitch count before he notches five strikeouts.
