Saturday gets the weekend fun rolling with an eight-game slate locking at 7:05 p.m. on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’ll dive into the MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and Hunter Brown as stellar pitchers, while the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 17
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at LAA)
Braves at Angels – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$11,000 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$60 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool would like to applaud the salary algorithms across the three main MLB DFS sites for assigning an appropriate apex-level salary to LHP Chris Sale, and, elsewhere, the Coors Field Extravaganza. There are still some discount dandies for both the Rockies and Padres, but at least some decision points will be tricky tonight.
Sale has moved ahead of RHP Zack Wheeler in the NL Cy Young race, though this duo is in a nip-and-tuck battle with rookie RHP Paul Skenes beginning to slide back to the peloton. This has been a special season for Sale, who finished no lower than sixth in the Cy Young race during the seven seasons between 2012 and 2018. Injuries cost him a lot of opportunities after that stretch, limiting the now 35-year-old to 53 starts from the end of 2019 through today. Currently, Sale leads the NL with 13 wins, a 2.61 ERA and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings to go with his 2.12 FIP.
The projected lineup for Los Angeles sets up reasonably well against southpaws, though aside from Logan O’Hoppe and Zach Neto, the other bats are aging veterans like Anthony Rendon and Kevin Pillar, or inconsistent hitters such as Taylor Ward and Brandon Drury. In a fun twist, Drury and Pillar are the only Angels to ever face Sale.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU vs. CHW)
Astros vs. White Sox – 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$9,100 at DraftKings
$9,900 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
Tonight, RHP Hunter Brown is likely to be a popular SP1 with his discount relative to Sale. While it is folly to try and project the win bonus for pitchers, it is worth noting that Houston is listed as a -380 home favorite to garner the victory tonight with RHP Chris Flexen toeing the rubber for Chicago.
Over the last 30 days, the White Sox have the seventh-highest strikeout rate (25.4%), the second-lowest power metrics (.266 wOBA, .129 ISO), with a not-so-nice 69 runs scored in 26 games (2.65). Luis Robert Jr. is the only frightening bat in the lineup, and he has a 37.8% strikeout rate in 222 plate appearances this season against same-handed hurlers. Sure, maybe Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn or Andrew Benintendi could get lucky and run into one, but solo shots are not particularly scary for a strikeout pitcher.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Zac Gallen (ARZ at TB)
Diamondbacks at Rays – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
The options are plentiful on the early slates, with LHP Carlos Rodon taking on the Tigers in Detroit, LHP Justin Steele and the Cubs hosting the Toronto Blue Jays and RHP Luis Severino and the Mets doing likewise for the Miami Marlins. Heck, even RHP Luis Castillo has a chance to lead the slate in points, on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, it is RHP Zac Gallen who gets the writeup in today’s article.
Over the last 30 days, Tampa has been a mess on offense. They have scored only one more run than the White Sox while striking out 28.2% of the time, which trails only the Colorado Rockies. They also own bottom-five power (.273 wOBA, .144 ISO). Gallen, like many of his rotation-mates, has earned the moniker of “better real-life pitcher” than a fantasy option.
While that is true, it also obfuscates that these types of pitchers tend to have safer floors, rarely getting destroyed on the mound. Over his last 10 games, even though he had outings with four, five and six earned runs, he has a 4.31 ERA, a 3.49 FIP and a 4.08 xFIP indicating some bad luck. In these 54.1 innings, he has allowed just three home runs and while fantasy gamers would like to see more than 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, Gallen is always live for a quality start, which is key on FanDuel for the bonus points.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Astros vs. White Sox – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Miles Mikolas
DK Top Stack %: 10.8%
FD Top Stack %: 7.5%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has the San Diego Padres with nearly a 20% probability of being the highest-scoring fantasy stack tonight in Coors Field, against LHP Kyle Freeland. The Dodgers are in play against RHP Andre Pallante in St. Louis, where it will be warm and humid. However, it is Houston that has edged Los Angeles for the second-best stacking odds, giving them the nod in today’s article.
This has been a rough season for RHP Chris Flexen, who has embodied the hard -luck status of the Chicago White Sox. The 30-year-old journeyman has a 5.34 ERA, with a 2-11 record and not many positive notes. Heck, in his last start, he held the Cubs scoreless for four innings but was pulled after 78 pitches. In his last five starts, Flexen has totaled a mere 21 innings, with a paltry 5.57 strikeouts per nine innings and a dreadful 7.71 ERA.
While the Astros line up better against lefties, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Pena form a strong core four. Alex Bregman is out with a sore elbow and, of course, Kyle Tucker remains out. That opens up some opportunities for Zach Dezenzo, who is the fifth-ranked prospect in the Houston system and will keep cheap power bats like Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers in the lineup. Jon Singleton is another discount dandy, who will help gamers craft a Coors Field stack, with a duo or trio of Astros and a top pitching option.
Want to improve your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to discover how to use simulations to refine your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves at Angels – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Canning
DK Top Stack %: 5.1%
FD Top Stack %: 5.2%
In his last start, RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning logged seven innings in Washington, against the Nationals, allowing four runs, with zero strikeouts and zero walks. That is pretty hard to do! Over his last 11 starts, Canning has ceded a reasonable 11 home runs, but he is very hittable with a 5.64 ERA, 5.21 FIP and 4.51 xFIP.
For the season, Canning is running high with 3.29 walks and low with 6.51 strikeouts per nine innings. Michael Harris II has returned to action after missing two months with a hamstring injury, which means Atlanta is now only down superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. and do-everything Ozzie Albies. Well, recent reacquisition Jorge Soler is day-to-day with a sore hamstring after sitting out Friday’s game, too.
Aside from Ramon Laureano and Whit Merrifield at the bottom of the order, this is a fierce lineup. Plus, if Soler is a go, Laureano will likely return to his reserve role. The top seven are all in play, with the preferred order of preference, accounting for price, popularity, projection and position being: Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Harris, Jarred Kelenic, Orlando Arcia and whoever is behind the dish, be it Travis d’Arnaud or Sean Murphy.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Early Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
Mets vs. Marlins – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Max Meyer
DK Top Stack %: 13.3%
FD Top Stack %: 12.9%
August has not been kind to RHP Max Meyer, who has allowed 14 runs in 15.1 innings with four home runs, four walks and 13 strikeouts. The 25-year-old is Miami’s second-best prospect and was the third overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft.
Meyer has done just about all he can at the Triple-A level, with 126 innings across three seasons, resulting in a 3.79 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a top-80 prospect, but he needs another pitch to complement his slider and four-seam fastball. The winning effort has been a changeup, which he worked on for a three-month stretch with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. The results are shaky at best, though the Marlins have elected to let him continue to take the ball every five or so days for the rest of the season.
While Citi Field is a pitcher’s haven, the Mets have more than enough power to make life miserable for opposing right-handed hurlers. In an ironic twist, slugger Harrison Bader actually has the lowest power numbers this season, of anyone in the projected lineup. Brandon Nimmo has been in a slump, but he busted out with a three-run shot last night, while Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor remain two of the most well-rounded hitters in the game.
Veteran J.D. Martinez can still crush mistakes and Mark Vientos is having a stellar breakout season, pushing Brett Baty back down to the minors. That still leaves pesky hitters in Jesse Winker and Jeff McNeil, along with catcher Francisco Alvarez. The Mets have lost five of the last seven games, so they need to sweep this series to remain in the running for the postseason.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight it looks like RHP Andre Pallante is someone to target in the sports wagering world, for the under on his 3.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetMGM where it is available at +100 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -03 “true odds” for Pallante to fall below four strikeouts
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -125 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Tonight Pallante does project for 3.7 strikeouts, which is above the 3.5 line, but of course still below the four needed for this wager to lose, because there are no fractional strikeouts in baseball. The 25-year-old has been right around this level with four, two, five, three, five, five, five, five and four strikeouts in his last nine appearances.
The projected lineup for the Dodgers has a stellar 19.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, while Pallante is at 17.7% himself. This season, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman each have a 10% or better walk rate against right-handed pitchers. The hope is they for Pallante to use up his pitch count, while also taking him yard at least once tonight.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Saturday, Aug. 17
Baltimore is the one spot on the main slate that deserves a mention for potential precipitation. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
