Tuesday keeps the week humming along with an 11-game featured slate, locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before getting into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to young Hunter Brown and veteran Robbie Ray as the key arms tonight, with the Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks once again the stacks to target.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 30
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU vs. PIT)
Astros at Pirates – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Hunter Brown as one of the most well-rounded pitching options when considering matchup, salary and fantasy production. In his last dozen starts, Brown had one hiccup against the Twins in Minnesota, allowing a dozen hits and seven runs while gamely going six innings to help out the bullpen.
Even including that kerfuffle, he has an 8-2 record with 9.5 strikeouts, 2.6 walks and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. This resulted in a 2.10 ERA, 3.14 FIP and 3.33 xFIP in these 73 innings. Rowdy Tellez has been dealing with nagging injuries and Bryan Reynolds was on bereavement leave, though both were in action last night. The bottom third of the Pittsburgh lineup is putrid against right-handed pitching, which hopefully will lead to some easy outs or even a three-up, three-down situation.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Michael Wacha (KC at CHW)
Royals at White Sox – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
Tonight Kansas City is a -200 moneyline favorite to garner the win, which should put RHP Michael Wacha in a strong position for some bonus points. The White Sox have lost every game since the All-Star Break, which started off with a loss to Wacha. Currently the ChiSox are on a 15-game losing streak after already having a separate 14-game streak earlier this season.
Wacha has never been a sexy pitcher, but he continues to chug along as an accomplished innings-eater. Even though he has played for six different teams over the last six seasons, his production has been solid with 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings, a 4.14 ERA, 4.47 FIP and 4.26 xFIP.
Chicago has suffered through one of the worst offensive season of the last five years, which has been due in large part to untimely injuries and the entire team slumping at the same time. But it is also hard to fathom a team that has scored three or fewer runs in 14 of the last 16 games. To return value tonight on his salary, Wacha does need to get that win bonus.
There is a chance that the White Sox could move a couple of hitters prior to the 6 p.m. ET trade deadline tonight, further watering down the lineup.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Robbie Ray (SF vs. OAK)
Giants vs. Athletics – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
In his debut last Wednesday, LHP Robbie Ray was able to tame the Dodgers in Los Angeles, allowing one run over five innings and striking out a healthy eight. This was done via an economical 86 pitches, demonstrating potential upside.
Potential is the key word since tonight will be only the third MLB start for Ray over the last two years. Last March, he suffered a flexor tendon injury in his first start, which resulted in Tommy John surgery. While Ray won the American League Cy Young Award in 2021, that feels like a lifetime ago.
San Francisco was careful to ramp up the workload for Ray, allowing him to appear in 10 rehabilitation efforts, with 74, 78 and 86 pitches thrown over the last three. He should be in the 80- to 90-pitch range for the next couple of starts as he continues to build stamina.
Over the last 30 days, Oakland has been the best offense in the league, which has been a fun quirk. Though cutting that timeframe to the last 10 days, the A’s are in the middle of the pack. The projected lineup for the Athletics has four different players with massive strikeout rates against southpaws, including Shae Langeliers (29.7%), Brent Rooker (30.9%), Lawrence Butler (31.2%) and Zack Gelof (35.7%).
The wild card designation is a combination of Ray potentially being rusty, having a lofty salary for someone with a monitored workload and going against a team that has hit the fourth-most home runs in the league.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
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Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Patrick Corbin
DK Top Stack %: 7.7%
FD Top Stack %: 9.0%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is going right back to the Diamondbacks, who are facing a second consecutive Washington southpaw. Last night Arizona stormed back in the final three innings, notching six runs to save a 9-8 victory.
Pinch-hitters ended up going 4-for-5 with a home run and four RBIs. Christian Walker left in the fourth inning with a sore oblique, being replaced by Kevin Newman, who was 2-for-3 prior to being lifted for Corbin Carroll, who clinched the game with a two-run round-tripper, leading to walk-off pandemonium.
If Walker is out tonight, that will likely move Randal Grichuk into the cleanup slot while getting both Jake McCarthy and Corbin Carroll into the lineup. The Diamondbacks last year did not want to play McCarthy in lefty-lefty matchups, even sending him down to Triple-A. This year, it is reigning National League Rookie of the Year Carroll who has been riding the pine with frequency against southpaws.
Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are the dynamic duo to ride against LHP Patrick Corbin, with catcher Gabriel Moreno a decent option if he lands in the two-hole again. That rounds out the featured-slate options, with Eugenio Suarez and Kevin Newman being late-slate dart throws for differentiation.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals at White Sox – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jonathan Cannon
DK Top Stack %: 8.5%
FD Top Stack %: 8.0%
Once again we are looking at the Royals in a cherry matchup, this time getting rookie RHP Jonathan Cannon. The 24-year-old has had mixed results, though just 10 days ago, the Royals got to him for four runs in Kansas City.
Last night, Bobby Witt Jr. was the hero of the game with a grand slam in the eighth inning, adding an exclamation point to home runs by Hunter Renfroe and MJ Menendez in the decisive frame. That trio can again be targeted tonight, along with veteran Salvador Perez and malleable Mike Massey.
Maikel Garcia will be in the bottom third of the batting order with a right-handed starter on the mound for Chicago, but in the same situation last night he was 2-for-4 with two runs scored and his 24th steal of the season. He is an excellent differentiation option on the main slate as well as the mid-evening three-gamer.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight LHP Sean Manaea is an interesting option in the sports wagering market in a matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts stands out on FanDuel where it is available at +130 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has +123 “true odds” for Manaea to stay under five strikeouts, which brings a solid 3.1% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers all the way down at a +102 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
There is elevated risk in this wager, as Manaea projects for 5.1 strikeouts, which is above the five needed for the under to lose. However, this does not account for a variable range of outcomes, which is better represented by the 45% probability of the under coming through on this wager. That is why it is paramount to get the bet in at the +130 line on FanDuel.
The 32-year-old southpaw is on his fourth team in four seasons but still an effective pitcher, with an 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings rate that is just above his 8.3 career average. The projected Minnesota lineup has a 20.2% strikeout rate against lefties this season, while Manaea has a 22.6% combined strikeout rate in the same period.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can appear and disappear within minutes. An OddsShopper Premium subscription is important to making sure you don’t miss these fleeting chances.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Tuesday, July 30
Once more it is the weather in the Midwest that warrants a watchful eye. Chicago and Detroit will have storms in the general area of the stadiums during the game, with Cincinnati potentially being postponed. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as the first pitch nears.
