Wednesday’s MLB action sees the largest contests locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today, we’ll explore MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Chris Sale and David Festa are two of today’s key arms, and Freddy Peralta is the wild card with upside if he can conjure up some strikeouts. Looking to the offenses, according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles provide non-Coors Field stacking opportunities as featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 28
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at MIN)
Braves at Twins – 3.6 implied runs First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET $11,000 at DraftKings $11,500 at FanDuel $58 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool is recommending LHP Chris Sale, even with the lofty salary. FanDuel has nearly 20 hitters at $2,800 or below who are strong options, while DraftKings has 15 solid bats at $3,200 or less. Even Yahoo has half a dozen hitters below the double-digit salary level who are viable discount dandies.
Once upon a time, the DraftKings salary algorithm would push apex pitchers above the $12,000 threshold. These would be the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and even Chris Sale five or six years ago. That rarified air is hardly ever reached these days, so the $11,000 range is that new benchmark.
Sale has surged into a significant lead in the National League Cy Young Award race while producing some of the best numbers of his career. The Twins do not have Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, but they do have some solid right-handed batsmen. Of course, with Sale in his current form, that means only Royce Lewis and switch-hitters Willi Castro and Carlos Santana (who is in his age-38 season). Sale has been in this article series frequently this year, so there is not much analysis left to cover.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP David Festa (MIN vs. ATL)
Twins vs. Braves – 4.1 implied runs First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET $6,800 at DraftKings $7,700 at FanDuel $35 at Yahoo
Sadly, Atlanta has been gobsmacked by injuries this season, with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley all out with injuries, so this is clearly not the same fierce offense from earlier this season.
Rookie RHP David Festa has been decent over his last six outings, but he is averaging just over four innings and 74 pitches per appearance. It is unlikely that Festa will be in line for a win with Sale being his counterpart tonight, but understanding how potentially limiting 80 pitches is for fantasy purposes is crucial. We are looking at 15 to 16 DraftKings points and around 25 to 30 FanDuel fantasy points as a good outing. That works from a point-per-dollar perspective, though it may not be enough to push minimum cash rosters into the upper payout ranges.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL vs. SF)
Brewers vs. Giants – 3.6 implied runs First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET $9,800 at DraftKings $9,200 at FanDuel $46 at Yahoo
The last month for RHP Freddy Peralta has provided inconsistent results. On a positive front, he has a 3.68 ERA and an acceptable 1.27 WHIP. The flipside is that he has seen his strikeouts plummet, with only 15 in his 22 August innings. He has faced Cleveland and the Dodgers while also pitching in St. Louis and Atlanta.
San Francisco is far less daunting that the last four teams that Peralta has faced, with six hitters in the projected lineup striking out 24% of the time this season against right-handed hurlers. In order to have a breakeven performance for his salary tonight, “Fastball Freddy” needs a quality start with at least half a dozen strikeouts. The last two times he did that were on Jul. 31 against Atlanta and Jul.20 in Minnesota. Caveat Emptor.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers
Rangers at White Sox – 5.4 implied runs First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET Opposing Starter: RHP Touki Toussaint DK Top Stack %: 8.2% FD Top Stack %: 8.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool once again has the Rockies and Marlins combining for a 25% probability that one of these teams will be the highest-scoring stack of the slate. Moving on to alternative stacks, we have Texas in in a great matchup against RHP Touki Toussaint.
On Tuesday, this game was suspended after four pitches, which means that the teams are basically playing a double-header today. The expectation is that Toussaint will be on the mound as the starter, but with how poor the White Sox bullpen is at this juncture, even if it is LHP Garrett Crochet who takes the mound tonight instead of continuing yesterday’s game, the Rangers will move from being a strong Coors Field countermove to a solid complementary stack with duos and trios.
Corey Seager has been a revelation this season, with a .398 wOBA and a .268 ISO in his 350 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitchers. Over the last 30 days, these figures are even more absurd with a .436 wOBA and a .378 ISO. Adolis Garcia also has been turning things around against same-handed pitching, which is key for the Rangers to keep things trucking to finish on a high note this season since it looks like they will not be getting the opportunity to defend their World Series title.
Toussaint has tried to be a ground ball pitcher with strikeout upside, but he allows far too much hard contact on his fly balls for this strategy to work. Control is also an issue, with the 28-year-old having a career rate of 5.8 walks per nine innings. This includes significant innings as a reliever, which is just not a tenable situation.
Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, Josh Jung and Leody Taveras are all in contention to augment Seager and Garcia for full stacks.
Orioles at Dodgers – 4.4 implied runs First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET Opposing Starter: RHP Walker Buehler DK Top Stack %: 6.4% FD Top Stack %: 7.5%
In his two starts since missing two months with a hip issue, RHP Walker Buehler has been shaky on the mound. The 30-year-old had seven walks and just four strikeouts in 7.1 innings against Seattle and in Milwaukee, allowing six earned runs.
While Buehler is skating on thin ice, the Dodgers bullpen can be employed at the first sign of trouble, which is why the Orioles have only a 4.4 implied team total. The recent home run barrage by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have pushed the Yankees ahead of Baltimore in the home run standings, though the Batters of Birdland still have the most total bases and the third-most runs this season.
Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have been sublime this season, with young Colton Cowser performing well after being thrust into the leadoff slot. Cedric Mullins and Jackson Holliday are differentiation options from the back of the order, and Ryan O’Hearn and Eloy Jimenez are alternatives from the heart of the order. Keep in mind that both of the lefty relievers for Los Angeles should be available tonight, which makes O’Hearn a pinch-hit risk.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
RHP Osvaldo Bido has been on a heater, so it is hard to tell if he has truly leveled up or if this is just a small sample size driving the appearance of success. Looking at the under on his 4.5 strikeouts does seem like a prudent move tonight.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on DraftKings, where it is available at +105 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -106 “true odds” for the upstart ace to fall below five strikeouts, which works out to an excellent 5.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -135 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI.
In his last six outings, Bido has tallied six, six, five, six, six and six strikeouts. He projects for 4.7 today, which is above the 4.5 median but below the five threshold since there are of course no fractional strikeouts in baseball. It is key to note that this game is in Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, which is the most homer-happy venue in the league. Bido has allowed only a pair of round-trippers in his last six starts, but he is facing a team of boppers that could shorten any pitcher’s outing quickly.
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Wednesday, Aug. 28
The featured slate looks to be avoiding precipitation issues, but there are likely to be challenges in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic for the early action. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format.
As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders.
He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience.
Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or
contact EMac by emailing [email protected].
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