Friday brings another semi-early lock time of 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo has elected to start their featured contests as 7:20 p.m. ET, dropping the games in the 6 o’clock hour. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Spencer Strider, Freddy Peralta and Hunter Greene as today’s aces, with a mix of hitters throughout the slate.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 5
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $9,800 | Yahoo $56
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Spencer Strider as the most desirable pitching option today, as does pretty much every DFS content site. This makes sense, as he is one of the best strikeout artists in the game and a frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award.
For those looking to be a little different at pitching, RHP Freddy Peralta is also going to be popular but not quite to the levels of Strider. The Mariners are saddled with one of the most pitching-friendly parks in the league, and with the cool and damp Pacific Northwest spring weather also working against the offenses, the team has plated just 17 runs in the first seven games.
The projected Seattle lineup also tallied a collective 27.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season, though it did have notable power with a .210 ISO. That is more about extra-base hits than actual home runs, and we know the only truly terrifying hitter in the lineup is Julio Rodriguez.
Last year, Peralta had an excellent 30.7% strikeout rate across 700 batters faced, even notching an above-average 25.7% rate against lefties. The key for tonight will be for Peralta to lean into his 40%-ish ground ball rate and induce some weak contact from the visiting team. For the young season, Seattle has a .093 ISO, which is the lowest in the league, while the M’s 30.2% strikeout rate is the highest. Yikes!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Greene vs. New York Mets — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo n/a
There is a major difference for RHP Hunter Greene between his salary on DraftKings and on FanDuel. He is a tremendous SP2 on the former, while on the blue site he is best left for tournaments. The Mets have had three games postponed, and in the six they have played, they scored two, three, zero, one, six and one runs. To underscore this futility, New York has a .253 wOBA and 57 wRC+, with both figures falling below the production of the woeful Mariners.
Greene has plenty of strikeouts, which are the currency of the realm in the MLB DFS world, though the home runs allowed are a steep cost of doing business. Even more dangerous is the 24-year-old plying his trade in the most homer-friendly park in the league. This matchup is a “both-sideser” (h/t TMcB) since Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are All-Star sluggers and second-year backstop Francisco Alvarez is no slouch himself. Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte can still hold their own, so it is easy to see a path to goodness for both Green and the opposing offense.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies at LHP Patrick Corbin — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool naturally has the Atlanta offense as the hitters to covet, which should be no surprise. With that understood, let’s take a gander at some of the other options. The Phillies are in Washington tonight, taking on LHP Patrick Corbin, who has allowed the second-most home runs in the league over the last three seasons. The only pitchers in the top 10 for this ignominious category to not have pitched for multiple teams during this stretch are Corbin, Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole. The latter two are staff aces who are not afraid to challenge opposing hitters and gather strikeouts like they are going out of style — in other words, the exact opposite of Corbin.
The 34-year-old picked up where he left off, allowing a pair of longballs in his first start of the season. For Nationals fans, the only good news is that this is the sixth and final year of the $140 million contract the former Diamondback ace signed in 2019.
Corbin at least allows most of his home runs to opposite-handed batsmen, but that has not stopped his former teammate Kyle Schwarber from launching a pair off him in his scant 15 plate appearances. Bryce Harper also fares well against his fellow lefty, though his success has manifested in a .404 on-base percentage over home runs. Alec Bohm also has two homers and three doubles in 22 at-bats against Corbin, and while batter vs. pitcher is folly, it is nice to see just the same.
Trea Turner, Bryson Stott, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos are all fine options, as is Whit Merrifield. This gives gamers plenty of ways to create lineups that can avoid overlap with other Philadelphia full stacks.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers vs. RHP Hunter Brown — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
The Houston bats are likely to be more popular than their fellow Texas counterparts, which makes the Rangers an intriguing contrarian stack tonight on the featured slate. In his brief time in The Show, RHP Hunter Brown has allowed a .224 ISO to same-handed hitters, and while that is likely to regress, the timing is right to attack. Leadoff man Marcus Semien (.204 ISO) and cleanup hitter Adolis Garcia (.397 ISO) are both strong threats against right-handed hurlers. Brown is not impervious to lefties by any stretch, so Corey Seager, Evan Carter, Jared Walsh and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim are all worthy candidates as a secondary stack, pairs or one-offs.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can look to LHP Tommy Henry in the sports wagering market with his -140 prop to record fewer than five strikeouts. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows this bet has -162 “true odds,” and the -140 line currently available at Fliff provides a stupendous 6.1% expected return on investment (ROI). This wager looks amazing when compared to sharp book Pinnacle, which is at -198.
Henry projects for right around four strikeouts tonight, and over his last 10 starts, he has been over and under the 4.5 threshold five times each. There is a good chance that Atlanta will chase him from the game before the end of the fourth inning, which bodes well for the under on this wager.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, April 5 — MLB DFS Picks
There are a few weather spots, though nothing seems to be headed towards a postponement. Mother Nature will have the final word, so keep tabs on Anaheim, Cincinnati, Detroit, Pittsburgh and San Francisco.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6 p.m. ET. Also get 30% off the Stokastic MLB Packages including DFS Sims, Lineup Generator and Data, with promo code DINGER.
