MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 7
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Unlike the PCL parks in Albuquerque (6,880 feet), Reno (5,413) and Salt Lake (4,327), Sutter Health Park is essentially at sea level. Runs will be scored here throughout the season, though that is because of the Athletics power and their poor pitching talent.
King joined the Padres as part of the return haul from the Yankees in the Juan Soto trade. He started out his career as a multi-inning reliever, getting the occasional spot start. The strikeout ability for King has always been there, though the worry was that he would lose his effectiveness when moving into the rotation on a full-time basis. That was not the case last year, when he made 30 starts in his 31 appearances, with a strong 10.42 strikeouts per nine innings.
Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom all have solid power against right-handed pitching; however, each has struck out above league average since the start of last year. Particularly egregious are Rooker (30.4%, 516 plate appearances), Langeliers (26.7%, 419 PAs) and Soderstrom (26.0%, 227 PAs). King projects for around one home run per nine innings, making him the top thrower tonight.
For tonight’s projected lineup, only Jonah Bride and Griffin Conine have above-average power against right-handed pitchers. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez each make contact and put balls in play, but their speed on the basepaths is not really a concern for an ace like RHP Kodai Senga if they do not cross home plate.
Senga only appeared in one game last season, missing time with a shoulder strain then suffering a calf injury in his late-July debut after cruising through 5.1 innings with nine strikeouts. The slight silver lining is that he didn’t meet his innings threshold to opt out of his contract, so he will be with the Mets through 2027 on what should look like a reasonable deal at $15 million per year if he can stay healthy.
In 2023, as a 30-year-old, the former frontline starter for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks made 29 starts, logging 166.1 innings with a stellar 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings. The 4.17 walks were a little concerning, though if he continues to average around one longball per nine innings, those should not be too punitive in the box score.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
RHP Connor Gillispie faced New York on Wednesday, so he too is in play as a starter today or tomorrow. Finally, Tyler Phillips is another option, with the 27-year-old last logging two innings Wednesday in his second multi-inning relief effort of the season.
The core four for the Mets is impressive after adding Juan Soto into the mix. Switch-hitting wizard Francisco Lindor is one of the most consistent bats in the game, and the prodigious power of Pete Alonso plays well in any park or weather conditions.
Unsung hero Brandon Nimmo is ensconced in the cleanup slot, getting protection from journeyman Jesse Winker against righties and Mark Vientos when a lefty is on the mound.
The only thing against the Metropolitans is that the temperatures are going to be in the low-40s, and there is a slight chance of precipitation throughout the game window, though the current forecast does not portend anything that would cause more than a delay.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Baltimore Orioles
The Batters of Birdland have been inconsistent this season, though that is not a complete surprise for a young team. Baltimore scored eight or more runs four times, winning each game. In their six losses, the O’s had just 10 total runs, posting more than two once.
RHP Zac Gallen is a good pitcher, and while he has only one All-Star appearance, he has finished fifth (2022) and third (2023) in the National League Cy Young Award voting. The 29-year-old has solid strikeout stuff while also doing a good job of limiting runs, though he is far from impervious, particularly against a team as talented as Baltimore.
The only weakness that Gallen really has is against left-handed power bats. Of course, that is a specialty of the Orioles with Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn and switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman. The backstop is better against lefties, but he also checks off a key position on DraftKings. Tyler O’Neill and young Jordan Westburg are excellent in same-handed matchups, expanding the stacking permutations and allowing for differentiation from other Baltimore backers.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Despite nicknames of Gingergaard and the Ginger Hammer, the red flowing locks of May do not give him special strikeout powers. Across 15 starts in the 2022 and 2023 season, the now 27-year-old had only 7.27 strikeouts per nine innings. He needed Tommy John surgery halfway through the 2023 season, then last year as he was getting close to a return, he suffered a torn esophagus (not related to baseball activities) that also required surgery.
The projected lineup for Washington has only two hitters who strikeout out above league average against right-handed hurlers. That, along with potential precipitation causing a delay, is enough to land on the under 4.5 strikeouts for May.
