MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Oct. 1
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Despite all of this, he still seemed to disappoint a lot of DFS gamers, but that was mostly due to his strikeouts deserting him in some of his cherry matchups, leading to less-than-stellar outings when he was a popular selection.
In his 10 starts since the beginning of August, the 28-year-old posted a 5-3 record with a 3.21 ERA, 4.61 FIP and 4.50 xFIP. This is far from a sterling stat line, also hinting at some troubles under the surface. Though in his last three appearances, he allowed only four earned runs and one round-tripper while striking out 21 in 15.1 innings.
The erstwhile ace will be taking on the New York Mets, who had to play a doubleheader in Atlanta yesterday, just to make the postseason. New York has a top-heavy lineup, with Francisco Lindor and his balky back leading off, with bopper Pete Alonso, steady veteran Brandon Nimmo and this year’s surprise breakout, Mark Vientos, in the front portion of the order.
Jeff McNeil is out, which has shuffled things around, leaving Jose Iglesias and Tyrone Taylor to see prominent roles.
Keep in mind that playoff baseball is a fickle DFS sport. All of the offenses are good, and so are the pitchers. Plus, teams have fully rested bullpens and can also turn to back-of-the-rotation starters as additional options. Road teams have added pressure in the Wild Card Series since they have to win two of the three games and do not get a respite or the opportunity to play in front of their own fans.
Additionally, over-correlating lineups can be a detriment with all of the available arms. Do not be afraid to take a batter or two against your pitcher when searching for differentiation. It would be a surprise to see more than two or three pitchers close out the sixth inning today, which means hitters are going to get a couple looks at the bullpen. Plus, if it is your ace who allows a solo shot or two in an otherwise-pristine outing, there is not a lot of downside to also having them paired with the bat who does the limited damage.
Skubal is a near lock for the American League Cy Young Award (-5000), well ahead of former winner RHP Corbin Burnes (+2000), who is also in the player pool. The 27-year-old southpaw pulled off the pitching triple crown, leading the league with 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, 2.39 ERA and a 6.3 WAR, and finishing second with his 0.92 WHIP.
Yordan Alvarez last saw action on Sept. 22, missing the last week and change with a knee issue. There was no need for the Astros to rush him back, but they also have been cagey about his overall health and availability. If he is out, that is a major blow to this offense. Fellow outfielder Chas McCormick is dealing with a minor fracture on his right hand, which did land him on the injured list. He is eligible, and manager Joe Espada has indicated he will play today.
These injuries force situational reserves to have a more prominent role, with utility man Mauricio Dubon the main option against southpaws. It is also important to remember that since returning from his own lengthy layoff for a shin issue, Kyle Tucker has been making contact but lacking power in lefty-lefty matchups, with a .415 wOBA but only an .040 ISO in his last 30 opportunities.
Finally, there is still the season-long issue of finding a first baseman to fill in the long-ago released Jose Abreu. Jon Singleton has been getting opportunities against right-handed hurlers, so best guess is that Zach Dezenzo will be in the lineup if Alvarez or McCormick are not available, with shuffling of Victor Caratini or Yainer Diaz actually manning first.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
For those questioning the legitimacy of the injury status for LHP Chris Sale yesterday when he did not take the mound in either game, the answer seems to be obvious now.
Atlanta is turning to RHP Bryce Elder in this must-win situation, with Sale ruled out for this series with back spasms.
That is tough luck for Atlanta since Sale won the NL Triple Crown for pitchers and is the odds-on Cy Young Award candidate for the senior circuit. It would have been a heck of a one-two punch if Sale and Spencer Strider were healthy for the playoffs. In some other universe, Atlanta fans are basking in the glory of a superteam, but not in our world.
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach is out of the picture, having tossed seven innings yesterday, and RHP Reynaldo Lopez is not an option either since he started Saturday and then pitched an inning yesterday. Reliever Grant Holmes tossed 1.2 innings on Sunday and four yesterday, so he is out as well. Closer Raisel Iglesias also pitched in both games yesterday while playing Friday and Saturday.
The best guess is that LHP Max Fried will go tomorrow after pitching on Friday, and RHP Charlie Morton is coming off 75 pitches in Sunday’s start, so he is unlikely to go today but could be pressed into duty tomorrow in some form or fashion. Who knows for sure how Atlanta will handle things, but we could see some interesting combinations and strategies employed over by manager Brian Snitker the next 48 hours.
Stick with the core hitters with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, switch-hitter Jurickson Profar and rookie phenom Jackson Merrill as the first wave of options. Jake Cronenworth, three-time batting champion Luis Arraez and catcher Kyle Higashioka comprise the second wave of hitters.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: Milwaukee Brewers
This worked out to a 4.19 ERA, 3.95 FIP and 3.35 xFIP, with six home runs and 39 strikeouts in these 34.1 innings. This shows that Severino is far from a gas can, but it also would not be a shock for him to work five solid innings and cede a solo shot or two.
Severino has done a good job of shutting down same-handed hitters, with a .280 wOBA and .107 ISO this year against 374 opposing batsmen. Last year in 215 same-handed battles, he surrendered a .365 wOBA and a dreadful .229 ISO. Your mileage may vary.
Garrett Mitchell is the best left-handed option with Christian Yelich out, and Jake Bauers is well behind him. Leadoff man Bryce Turang does not have power to speak of, but he is a terror on the basepaths and should have the green light to try to help his team manufacture a run.
Willy Adames is amazing against same-handed hurlers, so he is very much in play against Severino, who has a history of inconsistency. Catcher William Contreras and youngster Jackson Chourio also have excellent production against fellow righties, so they comprise the key stacking options, along with Rhys Hoskins.
Even if you are not stacking this squad, sprinkling in a couple hitters such as Adames, Mitchell and Contreras would be a good way to get a likely piece of the production pie.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day
LHP Framber Valdez is one of the best MLB DFS pitchers, as his elite ground ball rate that usually clears 60% while also providing around a strikeout per inning. However, this is the playoffs and there are other fresh arms in the Houston bullpen, so he may not go more than five innings today.
The Portfolio EV model has the southpaw projected for 5.6 strikeouts, which is well under the seven he will need for the 6.5 under to fail.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fanatics where it is available at -175 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -129 “true odds,” and while that is a slim ROI 1.5%, this is still a favorable wager.
We can see that Pinnacle has a -147 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 5% ROI. Be a smart shopper!
Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers, so I never enjoy rooting against him, though the playoffs are a different story, particularly with how managers are not afraid to go to back-of-the-rotation starters for an inning or two to bridge the gap to the closers. This environment creates more ways for Valdez to leave the game early, which bodes well for the under. Of course, I would be remiss in also not calling out that I made a similar wagering recommendation going against Valdez back on Aug. 1, which ended up with the splendiferous southpaw pitching a no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians. #Baseball, gotta luv it!
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
