MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 31
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Everything still holds true, but DraftKings is giving a nice break on Woo’s salary, and he can be employed as a tournament target on FanDuel and Yahoo. Last night the Angels managed to score five runs against RHP George Kirby on a trio of taters, but they still lost 9-5, dropping 14 of the last 17 (82%) games. That was just the second time the Halos have tallied more than four runs in this stretch, through which they are averaging just 2.7 runs per game.
Over his last seven appearances, Woo has compiled a 1.65 ERA, 2.62 FIP and 3.37 xFIP. He has been lucky, but he also has outpitched his advanced metrics all season. Woo has averaged nearly 90 pitches in his five starts this month, and with the Mariners now in must-win territory, they now must sweep Anaheim to have any realistic hope of making the postseason (17.2%).
Atlanta is on a heater with a 10-3 record over the last 13 games, though the team has scored five or more runs only five times in this stretch. Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are out with injuries, which of course has put Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela and the platoon of Jared Kelenic and Ramon Laureano in the lineup as regulars.
The projected Atlanta lineup has a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last year, however, Jorge Soler (25.6%), Marcell Ozuna (24.1%), Matt Olson (24.1%) as well as whichever catcher is behind the plate and the Kelenic/Laureano combo all strike out above league average. If Wheeler can avoid wasting pitches on Whit Merrifield (16.9%), Gio Urshela (15.0%) and Orlando Arcia (18.3%), he should be able to make enough of his own magic with his 27.6% strikeout rate, compiled during the same period.
Clearly, Wheeler is a luxury play, with the Coors Field Extravaganza approaching a total of 12 as a pair of shaky pitchers in RHPs Dean Kremer and Ryan Feltner will toe the rubber.
After a fun heater on either side of the All-Star Break, the Athletics have slid back to the back of the pack, scoring the seventh fewest runs over the last 30 days, averaging 4.0 per contest. The projected lineup has a 28.1% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season and change, which bodes well for Bradford.
To be clear, the budding frontline starter does have strikeout stuff, but like lots of young lefties, his game-to-game results are all over the place. Looking at his August action, he has recorded three, eight, two, seven and five strikeouts in his five starts.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
This will be a bullpen game for the Reds, who are expected to start things off with RHP Fernando Cruz for two or so innings. Emilio Pagan and Alexis Diaz have each worked the last three days, so they are unlikely to take the mound tonight. RHPs Buck Farmer and Tony Santillan are the next pitchers who also may get two innings.
After that, everything goes out the window. The overworked bullpen actually turned to catcher Luke Maile to close out yesterday’s 14-0 loss, with six runs being charged to Maile as he worked to get the final two outs. The 33-year-old backstop has pitched three times this month, but last night saw him allow runs for the first time. Even without his stats in the regular bullpen ranks, this collection of has-beens and never-weres is a bottom-five crew over the last three months. There is a chance that the Reds call up someone from the minors after Friday’s doubleheader, but no transactions have been announced as of 11 a.m. ET on Saturday morning.
In the last 34 games without Christian Yelich, Milwaukee is averaging 5.17 runs per game, which is the seventh-highest in the league during this period. It is likely that the Brewers will only have to face a lefty for an inning or two, which would mean only Garrett Mitchell and Jake Bauers are potential pinch-hit risks. In his last 501 lefty-righty matchups, Bauers has a .207 ISO, so he could easily make his supporters happy with one swing of the bat in Cincinnati’s home-friendly venue.
Core targets are William Contreras, Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins, along with Jackson Chourio (ankle) if he is in the lineup. Finally, there is Brice Turang, who has six steals in his last 13 starts, so he is always a threat to run whenever he is on base.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Looking at BvP can be folly more often than not, but it is interesting to see that the current Los Angeles roster has a .303/.368/.491 triple-slash line across 234 at bats against Kelly. Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Will Smith and Gavin Lux have all had strong success, and we should never discount MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts.
Teoscar Hernandez and switch-hitter Tommy Edman can be used to round out full-stacks. The D’Backs bullpen has been shaky recently, so even when Kelly exits the game, there is still a good chance the Los Angeles offense can keep any momentum rolling.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Dean Kremer has a tough task tonight. He’ll have to start in Coors Field. This has him bubbling up to the top of the OddsShopper model as someone to pick on in the sports wagering market for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fanatics where it is available at -130 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -140 “true odds” for the youngster to fall below six strikeouts, which works out to a solid 3.1% expected ROI.
Tonight Kremer projects for just under 4.7 strikeouts against the Rockies, which gives a little wiggle room for those looking for his downside. He has a 58% likelihood of falling below the six punchouts needed for this wager to fail.
For perspective, over his last 10 appearances, Kremer has tallied five, seven, three, six, two, seven, two, four, three and eight strikeouts. The projected lineup for Colorado has a 21.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, while Kremer has only a 21.3% strikeout rate against the last 1,188 batters he has faced.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
