Tuesday keeps the week rolling along with a 10-game featured slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Luis Gil and George Kirby as the key arms, while the Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks are the teams to stack, along with the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 4
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Gil (NYY vs. MIN)
Yankees vs. Twins – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
$10,800 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$57 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitcher’s Tool likes RHP Shota Imanaga for a bounce-back performance against his cross-town counterparts, though there is some precipitation in the forecast.
RHP Luis Gil is an easy pivot at a similar salary to his fellow rookie, but the matchup against Minnesota is not as desirable as facing the White Sox.
Prior to this season, Gil had made half a dozen starts in The Show, with reasonable results. However, this year he took a massive step forward in his performance, seemingly out of nowhere. He has allowed more than two runs only twice this season, with three and five “Ernies” in his worst outings. In his last six starts, he has ceded only three runs.
Minnesota is in the middle of the pack when it comes to runs and strikeouts, so they are far from pushovers, but with as well as Gil has performed this season, he still should receive our attention. Royce Lewis may be able to return to action after going down on Opening Day with a quad injury. He has made six rehabilitation starts and had four hits in 23 Triple-A at-bats.
It will be interesting to see how many gamers are worried about the weather in Chicago after reviewing the pre-lock forecast. If there is a surge of gamers going to Imanaga, then Gil is likely to be underrepresented in tournaments. If things look really hairy, then Gil may be overrepresented in tournaments. Be sure to tune in to the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET for all the latest updates.
One other premium option to consider is RHP Corbin Burnes at Toronto, with the Blue Jays projected for 3.8 runs. Of course, there are no weather issues with the Rogers Centre, so even if Chicago is off the table for rain concerns, we are not totally hemmed in with Gil.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby (SEA at OAK)
Mariners at Athletics – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$9,600 at FanDuel
$46 at Yahoo
There are ample aces tonight in good matchups, which makes for some interesting decision points. Coors Field is also boasting a run-line pushing 11, and game-time temperatures are starting out in the low-80s. It may be harder to get to the Reds and Rockies tonight, with so many solid pitchers making it hard for a majority to fail when there are half a dozen vying for top contention.
On Wednesday, RHP George Kirby had a solid showing against the visiting Houston Astros, allowing one run across six innings, accompanied by a healthy eight strikeouts. In the two starts preceding that performance, the 26-year-old struggled with the Beltway Bandits, allowing 10 runs, four home runs and 16 baserunners in just 12 innings of work against the Nationals and Orioles. It would seem that Kirby is more at home in Washington state rather than the Washington D.C. area.
Oakland has been showing signs of life, with two double-digit-run games in the last 10. However, the Athletics plated three or fewer runs in seven of the other eight, so the team is still one we can pick on with opposing pitching.
This has been a wild year for Kirby, as he has had four games allowing no runs and two games allowing one but three games with five and one blemish back in early-April, where he was hammered for eight runs in 3.2 innings at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians. We have been amply reminded over the last couple weeks that no pitcher is safe, with quite a few frontline starters being roughed up. However, they are still the best of the best and whom we should continue to roster.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles at Blue Jays – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Bowden Francis
DK Top Stack %: 6.8%
FD Top Stack %: 6.4%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool welcomes the return of RHP Bowden Francis from his stint in the minors. In five April outings, the 28-year-old lasted a scant 14.2 innings, with an 8.59 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, allowing four round-trippers and a trio of doubles. He did have 17 strikeouts, but that is far from a silver lining.
Francis (forearm) is slated to follow RHP Trevor Richards, who is far from a daunting option himself. Francis did have four appearances with Triple-A Buffalo, and while he put together 10.1 strong innings, he has never been much of a prospect, slowly matriculating up through the ranks with Milwaukee between 2017 and 2021 before joining Toronto in 2021.
Look to the batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate with Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander as the core four. From the bottom of the order, Colton Cowser and struggling Cedric Mullins can provide differentiation, though it is unlikely the Batters of Birdland rival the Coors Field stacks for popularity tonight.
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Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Giants – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Kyle Harrison
DK Top Stack %: 4.2%
FD Top Stack %: 4.8%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool does respect LHP Kyle Harrison, who was a top prospect for the Giants, though he has been riding the struggle bus for his last four starts. In this stretch, he has logged five innings in each appearance, but with a 6.30 ERA, 5.54 xERA and only 28% ground balls, now is the time to take advantage of this late-spring swoon.
Arizona stacks will barely be a blip on the radar for the featured-slate tournaments, but there is utility in using the Diamondbacks as mini-stacks. Harrison has shown vulnerability with four home runs in his last two games, and right-handed batsmen have accounted for seven of his nine dingers.
Christian Walker, Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are all dialed in against southpaws this season, with ridiculous results. Catcher Gabriel Moreno and veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk have not had as much recent success, but both look good when reaching back to the start of last season for the larger sample size.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Jared Jones is among the current wagers being highlighted by the OddsShopper model for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is the -115 currently available at PointsBet, SuperBook and DraftKings.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -121 “true odds,” so the -115 line brings a decent 2.5% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with shops like BetRivers and Unibet down at -137, which is a losing proposition. Be a savvy shopper!
Jones projects for just under five strikeouts tonight, which is below the six it would take for the under to lose. The 22-year-old has been less efficient over his last four starts, with just 18 strikeouts in 22.1 innings, resulting in two, five, seven and four in his most recent appearances.
This season, the projected lineup for the Dodgers has struck out 22.6% of the time against right-handed hurlers. Plus, there is always the chance that the trio of MVPs atop the Los Angeles lineup can lead the team into enough damage against Jones that he is forced to hit the showers early.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Tuesday, June 4
Keep tabs on Chicago, as there are storms in the general vicinity through the game window. Also, there is a slight chance of precipitation in Washington, though it should not be more than a nuisance. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
