MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | March 30
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
While this is the largest spring training facility in Florida, with luxury suites as well, the capacity is 11,000 fans. The facility also is the home field for the Single-A Tampa Tarpons, and the location hosts several concerts throughout the year. Outdoor weather (aka heat and humidity) will have more of an impact favoring offense than this being a “minor league” ballpark.
It feels like RHP Taj Bradley has been around forever, though he is still only 24 years old. He started out as a 17-year-old in 2018, working his way through the low-minor league rungs with Tampa. Today will mark his 47th career start, having made it to The Show in 2023. Bradley should push for around 10 strikeouts per nine innings, which is a threshold he cleared in his first two seasons. Keeping in mind that Tropicana Field was a far more pitching-friendly environment than Steinbrenner Field, it makes sense that there is a decrease in this ratio.
Colorado is a team to pick on once again whenever the Rockies are on the road. Oft-injured Kris Bryant is another year older, though when ambulatory, it is expected he will be hitting cleanup. The other hitters of note include Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar, Ryan McMahon and Michael Toglia, though everyone in this quartet has struck out at least 25% against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change, along with projected starter Nick Martini and Bryant.
It would be a shock to see the 37-year-old record more than 80 pitches or five innings, which makes him a tricky decision point with a salary more indicative of a quality start (six innings and fewer than four earned runs) and half a dozen strikeouts. In his three spring training starts, he saw his pitch count increase from 31 to 57, ending with 70 on March 25 and eight strikeouts across his 10 combined frames.
This is the first time since 2019 that Wacha has pitched for the same team. He spent the first seven seasons of his career with St. Louis, joining the New York Mets during the 2020 pandemic-shortened campaign. Then it was stops in Tampa, Boston, San Diego and finally Kansas City. Wacha is rarely flashy, though he is solid, limiting on-field production while putting up enough strikeouts to be interesting when everything breaks his way.
Cleveland is not an easy opponent, but with Jose Ramirez injuring his wrist on Saturday, it will be without its best hitter. Josh Naylor also moved on via a trade with Arizona, making it tough to replace 31 home runs and 108 RBIs. Fan favorite Carlos Santana is back for a third stint with Cleveland, though the smooth-swinging designated hitter is now in his age-39 season. Youngsters Kyle Manzardo, Lane Thomas and Bo Naylor are being asked to mature quickly, so it will be interesting to see how they answer the bell. Steven Kwan is a steady presence at the top of the order, but the bottom 3 spots are going to be filled by sub-replacement-level hitting most days.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
DraftKings is making things interesting with the top 4 projected batsmen averaging nearly $5,600; Nick Castellanos is the best value from the five-hole at a whopping $4,600. By comparison, FanDuel has Castellanos at $3,000, with Bryce Harper being the most expensive option at $4,000.
Salary caps are the great equalizer in DFS, and on DraftKings sacrifices will need to be made in order to feature a full stack of Phillies. Fortunately, teams like Tampa, Miami and the Chicago White Sox have plenty of sub-$3,000 hitters, which is going to be the path to enable gamers to pile up the Philadelphia offense.
Be sure to understand the tradeoffs and be careful of any touts who are not explaining just how they will be “jamming in the top of the Philly order” today.
Last year, LHP Mitchell Parker was surprisingly serviceable for Washington, taking the mound 29 times. This will be his age-29 season, so there is little to no upside left on his professional trajectory. Part of Parker’s improvement last season was limiting his walks, though the projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) think this is an anomaly and are expecting him to regress from 2.5 walks per nine to something in the mid-3s. That, along with a below-average 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, has Parker as a hurler to keep on our radar to pick on in the right spots.
Parker faced Philadelphia once last year, and it did not go well, with the home team tattooing him for nine runs in just three innings. He did have six strikeouts, though that is small consolation for his 10 hits, including five for extra-bases, two of which were home runs, accompanied by a pair of free passes. That specific past performance does not mean he is in trouble today, but it doesn’t help with all of the other factors going against the late-bloomer.
Lefty-lefty matchups are no issue for Harper (.388 wOBA, .216 ISO, 229 plate appearances) or Kyle Schwarber (.405 wOBA, .202 ISO, 253 PAs), with Trea Turner, Alec Bohm and Castellanos thriving when they hold the platoon advantage. Longtime Twin Max Kepler also fares well against fellow lefties, which has him as an intriguing salary saver.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Toronto Blue Jays
It was a lost season for Bo Bichette, as the two-time All-Star was dreadful at the plate with a career-low .225/.277/.322 triple-slash line that was a full standard deviation below any other season. Perhaps he just needed a clean slate, as he has six hits in his first 12 at-bats, so let’s grant him a mulligan but also have a quick hook if he backslides.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. made the All-Star team each of the last four years, with some pushing him as a potential MVP candidate. He has not attained the lofty heights of his 2021 season, when he led the league in home runs, runs, OBP, slugging and total bases. That year he finished second to Shohei Ohtani in the American League MVP race, with the two-way player getting every first-place vote. The Blue Jays are only going to go as far as this second-generation MLB duo can take them, so no pressure.
Anthony Santander gets to wrap up the series against his former team with expectations running high for the switch-hitting maven. It was a bit of a surprise to see the Orioles bow out of the free agency race for Santander, but the team is so loaded with young hitters, spending on pitching made sense. That is no slight to Santander, whose on-field production absolutely earned his five-year, $92.5 million deal with Toronto.
The guesswork starts after the top third of the lineup, with potential options including Andres Gimenez in the heart of the lineup. The 26-year-old came over from Cleveland via trade this offseason, though he has not replicated his stellar 2022 offensive campaign, which landed him a seven-year, $106.4 million deal. There is no questioning his defense, but with that kind of cheddar in play, he needs to produce at the plate.
Veteran George Springer and unproven youngster Will Wagner are other candidates for full stacks. Considering that there are fresh arms in the Baltimore bullpen, looking at a power trio makes the most sense for those flying high with the Jays this afternoon.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
The Mariners continue to enjoy an embarrassment of riches with one of the best starting rotations in the league, and RHP Bryan Woo takes the mound this afternoon.
The Portfolio EV model has the under on 5.5 strikeouts looking like a positive wager with the +120 odds on Hard Rock and DraftKings.
Factoring in the various variables, we can see that Portfolio EV shows this wager has +113 “true odds,” which works out to a steady 3.1% expected ROI. While the 5.8% historical ROI is higher, keep in mind that Woo has seen various pitch count restrictions throughout his young career.
That is also what makes him appealing today since Seattle has taken great pains to keep him healthy, even under various decision-makers. Woo was a bit of a surprise selection, going in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Cal Poly. In college he was mostly used as a reliever, making only six starts in 31 appearances across three seasons.
The M’s saw something in his pitch mix and decided to roll the dice. Things have worked out thus far, with Woo vastly outperforming expectations. The 25-year-old had five appearances this spring, working his pitch count higher each time (21, 37, 57, 64, 78).
Expectations are something approaching 80 pitches this afternoon, though it would not be a surprise if Woo hits the showers after 60 to 65 throws, depending on his performance. That is one other factor to consider with this wager. We can see that PointsBet has pushed the milestone to 6.5 strikeouts, but the -160 odds make it a neutral wager at best. Most of the operators are around even money with the under 5.5 target, which is what makes the +120 on Hard Rock and DraftKings so appealing.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
