Thursday brings a five-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Kyle Gibson and Bryan Woo on the featured slate as the arms to build around. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies round out the offenses for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 8
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP: Kyle Gibson (STL vs. TB)
Cardinals vs. Rays – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
$7,900 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$35 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool loves LHP Nestor Cortes against the visiting Los Angeles Angels, who are without the injured Mike Trout, Luis Rengifo and Anthony Rendon, and Taylor Ward is on the paternity list. However, weather is a major concern, so if this game is too risky or even lost, we need other options.
The Rays did not quite give up with a major fire sale, but they are resigned to retooling, accepting a deal to get Christopher Morel for Isaac Paredes. Morel is up for arbitration after this season, but Paredes still has some years of team control left, so the Cubs also sent a couple of prospects to the Rays in the deal.
The top of the Tampa lineup is still strong, but the back half is weak and the projected lineup has a 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two years. That bodes well for RHP Kyle Gibson, who does not generate a lot of strikeouts on his own, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old can take what the opposition offers. His 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings this season are well above his 7.3 career rate and also the highest of the last five seasons.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo (SEA vs. DET)
Mariners vs. Tigers – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
Jumping from primary pitcher to the wild card is a function of the weather in New York, a five-game player pool and RHP Bryan Woo carrying a salary indicative of a full workload. The 24-year-old has had a terrific sophomore campaign, building on his surprising rookie year.
The main issue with both seasons has been health concerns, and Woo already has multiple stints on the injured reserve with various maladies and a couple of abbreviated starts. The team has also been clear that it is not going to push his pitch count, as it will need him in the postseason. It was a bit of a surprise that Woo got up to a season-high 92 pitches in his last start, which was one off his career high from last year. He shut out the Phillies across seven innings, allowing five hits and striking out six. In the preceding five games, he averaged 67 pitches, topping out at 73.
The Tigers are not a pushover, but they are far from a daunting lineup as well. It is going to be difficult for Woo to overperform on his salary, but he still could lead the slate in points.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies at Diamondbacks – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Jordan Montgomery
DK Top Stack %: 15.6%
FD Top Stack %: 16.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is chuckling at the misfortune of LHP Jordan Montgomery, who will be facing the Phillies tonight. The only silver lining is that the game is in Arizona, with the Chase Field roof expected to be closed.
Montgomery had a rough offseason as one of the core four clients that agent Scott Boras had trouble placing new teams. Essentially Montgomery got a one-year, $25 million deal with Arizona, though the 31-year-old clearly struggled without an official spring training. He missed most of the first month as he was ramping up, and then he missed close to four weeks, including most of July, with knee inflammation.
In the three starts since his return, the lefty has logged a dozen innings, with eight earned runs, two home runs, six walks and six strikeouts. Those last two numbers are the scariest, especially against an elite Philadelphia offense.
After slumping out of the All-Star Break, losing 11 of 14 (79%) games, the Phillies have regained momentum, winning three of four while averaging six runs per tilt. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper crush same-handed pitching, and Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, catcher J.T. Realmuto and super-sub Edmundo Sosa round out a glorious gauntlet of right-handed power bats. We will not be alone in riding with the Phillies, but this is too good of a matchup to overlook.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Kolby Allard
DK Top Stack %: 12.4%
FD Top Stack %: 12.6%
The return of Freddie Freeman is a major boost to this lineup because it allowed the team to finally waive Cavan Biggio. Tonight the boys in blue are going against RHP Tyler Phillips, who was a 16th-round draft pick out of high school in 2015, taking almost a decade to make it to The Show.
On Saturday, LHP Kolby Allard survived his start in Seattle against the Mariners, lasting 65 pitches with two earned runs, two walks, one home run and four strikeouts. Even with this start, the analysis from last Saturday for Allard still holds true:
Allard was the 14th overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft, joining Atlanta directly from high school. He had his first cup of coffee with the parent club in 2018 before being traded to Texas. He muddled through a couple of seasons and then was released after compiling a 6.07 ERA across 179.1 frames with 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Atlanta reacquired Allard in 2022, ultimately releasing him after an injury-plagued second stint with the team. The Phillies took a chance on Allard, giving him a one-year, $1 million deal. He opened the season in Triple-A, being recalled to pitch last Sunday.
Considering that Allard posted a 5.23 ERA (with a whopping 13 unearned runs) in 72.1 innings in the minors, this is likely his last hurrah. Expect him to be banished to the bullpen or released when Ranger Suarez or Taijuan Walker returns to action.
This season, Arizona has been a top-6 squad against southpaws, posting a 117 wRC+ that indicates the team is creating runs 17% more efficiently than league average. Switch-hitters Ketel Marte and Josh Bell both do excellent work from the right side of the plate, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. always a strong play when he has the platoon advantage. It does hurt having Christian Walker on the shelf, but veteran Eugenio Suarez has a few tricks left in his bag against mistake pitches.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight RHP Bryan Woo is an interesting prospect in the sports wagering market and in the DFS world. Currently, the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at -106 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -112 “true odds” for Woo to stay under six strikeouts, which brings a 2.6% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -130 line, and that equates to a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Woo does project for 5.6 strikeouts against the Tigers, though with a variable range of outcomes, that is still giving this under a 53% probability of coming to fruition. The projected Detroit lineup has a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, but with Woo having his workload limited, any sort of inefficiency on his part, is a benefit for the unders on this wager.
Over his last 10 starts, Woo has recorded six, three, five, one, three, one, six, two, one and seven strikeouts. He is likely to be right around the four to five range, so getting to six could be a stretch.
As soon as lineups are announced, betting opportunities can vanish in minutes. Stay ahead of the game with an OddsShopper Premium subscription, and grab these fleeting chances before they’re gone.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Thursday, Aug. 8
On the featured slate, New York has rain in the forecast, with a good chance of a delay being on the table and a postponement not out of the question. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
