MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Mar. 27
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
DFS gamers of course love that Skenes has an Opening Day matchup against the hapless Miami team, that is putting forth a roster card that looks more like a split-squad spring training crew, rather than a real MLB lineup. Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby are already on the injured reserve, with Jake Burger no longer a Marlin. Plus there were the various trades last year that saw Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell shipped out of town.
The projected lineup for the Marlins cobbled together a woeful 124 ISO against right-handed hurlers, though at least the 22.9% strikeout rate was not a complete embarrassment. Of course, Skenes was a strikeout artist, with a 33.5% rate against righties and a 32.6% rate against opposite-handed batsmen. Opposing hitters had a .097 ISO off him, helped by his 52.3% groundball rate, which limited those that the 22-year-old didn’t handle himself at the plate.
Adding in a matchup in a mostly hitting-neutral park and we have an easy click for the ace of the day. There will be ample time this season to dive deeply into matchups, pitching styles and skillsets, however, with the best pitchers on the bump over the next two days, that is not an immediate necessity. The two hitters of any concern are Jonah Bride, who produced All-Star numbers in same-handed matchups last season, with a .387 wOBA and a .248 ISO, buoyed by an 8.7% walk rate. The next best numbers were posted by second-generation Marlin Griffin Conine who has a .339 wOBA and .194 ISO in 68 plate appearances against opposite-handed hurlers. Even with his pedigree, Conine was a late-bloomer, not making it to The Show, until his age-26 season last year and even then it was almost more of a nod to his father Jeff, that he got a cup of coffee.
Greene is known for his strikeouts, though his power pitching ways have resulted in a few injury stints, including Tommy John surgery in 2019, arm fatigue and hip issues and other assorted maladies. Strikeouts of course are the currency of the realm for MLB DFS and as mentioned, that is an area where Greene excels. He also has control issues on occasion, which can force him to burn through his pitch count. He finished spring training with an 84 pitch effort, which is a good sign of his readiness.
Last year, he had 98 or more pitches in 14 of his first 15 starts, averaging just over 102 per outing, which is wild. There is no reason to expect triple-digits on Thursday, but 90 is very much in play. Prior to his injury, he closed out the sixth inning in 19 of 24 (79%) starts, which is key on FanDuel, since the blue site awards bonus points for a quality start, which is defined by pitching at least six innings, with three or fewer earned runs.
There is a bit of a misnomer that San Francisco doesn’t strike out a lot, though that has not been the case over the last three seasons, with the Giants ranking among the 10 most K-happy teams in each campaign. Willy Adames was the big bat acquired this offseason and he had a 25.5% strikeout rate in same-handed matchups last year with the Milwaukee Brewers. Six players in the projected San Francisco lineup struck out at least 24% of the time against righties last year, so keep Greene in mind for tournaments.
Looking for discount dandies, RHP Logan Webb is just $38 on Yahoo, which is ridiculous, since his groundball tendencies and cooler weather should help him survive in the Great American SMALLpark. Another options would be RHP Clay Holmes, who is making his debut for New York’s other team. He has a tough matchup in Houston, but at the $25 Yahoo minimum pitching salary, he has a chance to handily outproduce that cap hit. This duo is in play on FanDuel as well, though saving salary at the pitching slot is not particularly necessary, with ample hitting options listed at $2,700 or cheaper.
Veteran LHP Yusei Kikuchi is going to be a popular SP2 on DraftKings, with a stellar $6,900 salary in a road matchup against the Chicago White Sox. The Pale Hose were anemic last year, with a 75 wRC+ which was well below the other teams in the bottom five. For reference, those were Cincinnati 87, Miami 86, Pittsburgh 86 and Colorado 82. Keep in mind, weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ballpark factors, among other variables, creating a leaguewide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. That is how the Reds and Rockies end up on this list, even though those teams score actual runs. It also highlights that the ChiSox were 25% worse than league average.
The fires sale cut deep last year for the Southsiders, with Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn the main offensive holdovers. Robert was a mess last year, with a .270 wOBA, .075 ISO and a 31.1% strikeout rate WITH the platoon-advantage. Vaughn, Lenyn Sosa (.157) and journeyman Michael A. Taylor (.152) were the only hitters who compiled an ISO above .115 when facing southpaws, among the projected starting lineup. Yikes!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angels Angels
Nolan Schanuel and Luis Regnifo also have above average contact and if he is in the lineup, Jo Adell has power upside, though his role has not been defined. Tim Anderson seemed to lose the ability to hit against southpaws, so it will be interesting to see if he plays or if it is Kevin Newman for his glove.
Seeing RHP Sean Burke as the Opening Day starter was a bit of a surprise, though in looking at the rest of the rotation (Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martin Perez and Shane Smith) it makes sense.
At least the bullpen is old, without upside and with nobody projected for an ERA lower than 4.20. Oh, adding to the embarrassing roster, former starter Mike Clevinger is likely to get the first crack at any saves, which is just wild.
Since winning the World Series in 2005, the White Sox have been to the postseason only three times in the last two decades. Fortunately, flags fly forever.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Boston Red Sox
The 35-year-old is still steady, though not spectacular, as he tries to induce more groundballs, to counter his declining strikeout rate. Similar to the Angels recommendation, the Red Sox are more about what has changed from last year. The addition of Alex Bregman is key, with him breaking up the left-handed hitters at the top of the order, consisting of Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers and Tristan Casas.
Trevor Story being healthy is a revelation and he actually had a few moments in his limited at bats last year. Wilyer Abreu is a budding star against right-handed pitchers and Thursday will be only his 160th MLB game. Expect him to keep moving up in the order, particularly when the brittle batsmen ahead of him end up on the injured reserve.
Other potential stacks include the Philadelphia Phillies, in Washington against LHP MacKenzie Gore. The southpaw is a budding talent, though this is again a loaded lineup from the City of Brotherly Love, with several players also having a strong history against Gore.
Depending on how popular Kikuchi ends up on DraftKings, focusing on a mini-stack of White Sox bats is an interesting tournament differentiator. Put trust that Robert and Anderson have not lost all their mojo, with Vaughn, Sosa and Taylor potential plays. Austin Slater is a pinch hit risk, but he should see two at bats against Kikuchi. Again, this does not need to be a full-stack, more of a savvy surgical strategy.
Finally the Astros do not have to worry about any weather in Houston, plus there is a chance that Holmes may be susceptible to extra-base hits. Isaac Paredes is a great add for the ‘Stros, as is Christian Walker. Each is solid against same-handed hurlers, with production and potential lineup production, intermixed with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Sean Burke has been covered above as a pitcher to target with Angels in the DFS world. We can also consider going against him for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts.
The Portfolio EV model has the 25-year-old hurler for around 4.3 strikeouts on Thursday, which is a in line with the 4.5 offering at most books.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetRivers where it is available at +100 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -106 “true odds,” and while that is a steady 3.0% expected ROI, the “plus” money aspect is nice.
We can see that Pinnacle has a punitive -135 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 10% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Burke ramped up from 54, to 69 and finally 84 pitches in his last spring training start. However, in these three games, despite logging 10 innings and facing 51 batters, he recorded only six strikeouts, with eight walks and a trio of taters.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
