Thursday has rain in the forecast across 80% of the five-game featured slates. That means we will need to be nimble prior to the 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Charlie Morton as the safest option, while Ryan Feltner is a backup plan, depending on if and when any games are cancelled. Kansas City is the desired offense tonight, followed closely by Baltimore and Chicago, though precipitation risks are looming in the forecast.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 1
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Charlie Morton (ATL vs. MIA)
Braves vs. Marlins – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$8,800 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool got a good laugh from Yahoo matching RHP Charlie Morton’s $40 salary with his age. The venerable veteran is one of a few players who began their career well before daily fantasy sports were even a twinkle in anyone’s eye.
Morton has come full circle since his 2008 MLB debut with Atlanta, working his way through Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Houston and Tampa Bay before rejoining Atlanta in 2021. The individual games for Morton have been a bit of a roller coaster this season, but in the aggregate, he has a solid 4.16 ERA and close to a strikeout per frame, which is excellent for an innings-eater. This is the 17th campaign for Morton, who literally has seen it all. He can still get it done against weaker teams while making the top offenses earn their keep against him.
The Marlins have recently traded Jazz Chisholm, Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz, further weakening an offense that has scored the second-fewest runs in the league this season. Miami is still 51 runs ahead of the Chicago White Sox but unlikely to catch the Seattle Mariners (38) or the fellow Florida-based Tampa Bay Rays (39).
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Ryan Feltner (COL at LAA)
Rockies at Angels – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$6,000 at DraftKings
$7,500 at FanDuel
$32 at Yahoo
Clearly Shota Imanaga against the Cardinals and Seth Lugo in Detroit facing the Tigers are better (Imanaga) and safer (Lugo) than RHP Ryan Feltner. That is the point of calling this the Wild Card section, so shame on those readers who just glance at the names in the headers and move on.
Imanaga has been outstanding this season, but there is some precipitation risk in Chicago. Since being gobsmacked by the Mets for 10 runs on June 21, the “rookie” has five successful starts, with a 2.93 ERA, 3.59 FIP and 4.09 xFIP, accompanied by 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings.
Lugo has had two rough outings, allowing six runs in 6.1 innings to the Cubs in his last appearance and being shredded by the Red Sox in Boston on July 13, ceding five runs in five innings. Of course, he started out July by allowing just two runs in Coors Field, pitched in his first All-Star Game and then logged his first complete game with a one-run effort against the White Sox. The 34-year-old is showing that you can teach an old dog new tricks. The weather in Detroit looks safer than in Chicago, but it still is worth monitoring.
Back to Feltner, he is pitching in the final game of the slate, making him an excellent fallback position for anyone that needs to bail out on Imanaga or Lugo. In his last six starts, including four Coors Field appearances, Feltner has a 2.60 ERA, which has outperformed his 4.12 FIP and 4.46 xFIP but is still stellar for 22.2 of the 34.2 innings in this stretch coming at altitude.
Mike Trout is still injured, and like clockwork, Anthony Rendon is hurt once more, with regular Luis Rengifo also dinged up. While the Angels have a 4.8 implied team total, there is a lot to like with Feltner, particularly if he maintains his current projected level of popularity invisibility.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals at Tigers – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Keider Montero
DK Top Stack %: 13.8%
FD Top Stack %: 13.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is backing Kansas City once again, which allows for Atlanta to be a fallback position if the weather is not cooperating in the Midwest. Baltimore actually has the highest stack odds, though Your Ol’ Pal is semi-partial to the reinvention of RHP Ben Lively as someone who could absorb a handful of earned runs without giving up many extra-base hits.
RHP Keider Montero has a good fastball, but he is sort of a one-trick pony, still attempting to develop a secondary pitch. A couple years ago when he was in Double-A, it seemed like he would be able to add a breaking ball to his repertoire; however, there has been very little improvement on that pitch. The 24-year-old is the 22nd-ranked prospect in the Detroit system, with his arrival to The Show planned for this season. In yet another lost year, the Tigers are giving him a chance to work in the rotation, though at just over 6 feet tall and 175 pounds, Montero is likely best suited as a multi-inning reliever and occasional spot starter or bulk relief pitcher.
In his last three starts, Montero allowed five earned runs in each game, facing the Twins, Blue Jays and Dodgers. Extra-base hits have been an issue, with one every other inning, including 10 round-trippers.
The top 6 are the targets tonight, with the preferred order of preference — taking into account projected popularity, production and positional eligibility — being Bobby Witt Jr., Michael Massey, Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez, Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. It will be interesting to see how recent acquisition Paul DeJong works into the lineup against fellow righties, with Maikel Garcia (also right-handed) typically getting dropped to the bottom of the order. We could see a mix-and-match situation, depending on the pitch portfolio of opposing right-handed starters or some other juggling of lineup slots.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Colorado Rockies
Rockies at Angels – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Carson Fulmer
DK Top Stack %: 10.3%
FD Top Stack %: 10.7%
It is pretty much a coinflip between the Rockies and the Angels for the alternative stacks, depending on what the weather permits for the other four games. Each team has about a 10% chance of being the highest-scoring stack on the slate, assuming all five games are played.
Based on the analysis above for Feltner, my lean is towards the Rockies, but to be clear, the Angels are perfectly viable, and this is closer to a 55/45% decision. For MLB DFS, that is essentially a toss-up.
RHP Carson Fulmer made his debut back in 2016 with the Chicago White Sox. He was the eighth overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft after three seasons at Vanderbilt, where he logged 271.1 innings. He never followed through on this lofty asset allocation, ending up as just the 13th-ranked prospect for the ChiSox.
Pretty much every season has seen him spend time in the minors, and he has bounced between starting and relieving duties. Even though he has pitched in The Show across eight different seasons, he has just 198 MLB innings, versus 499.1 MiLB frames. This is the fifth team for Fulmer over the last six years. While he has a fastball that sits around 93 mph, Fulmer tends to lean on his changeup to induce weak contact.
Colorado has one of the worst offenses in the league when things are normalized for the Coors Field effect, which means they typically are not covered in this article series since there is no real point of breaking them down at home and we are usually targeting pitchers against them on the road.
Ezequiel Tovar, Ryan McMahon, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia are not horrible hitters by any means, but they are not going to scare anyone either. Charlie Blackmon celebrated his 38th birthday last month, and his power outside of Denver is a myth at this point. Brendan Rodgers flashed some promise in 2021 and 2022, but he has been a mess at the plate the last two years.
Kris Bryant used to be a top-25 hitter, but injuries have limited the 2016 National League MVP to just 152 games in three years with the Rockies. Elias Diaz and Jake Cave are more interesting options as salary savers, though on par with Bryant for overall talent.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
For those who are tired of seeing strikeout props, tonight we can look to Gunnar Henderson for the under on 1.5 total bases. Currently, the under on his 1.5 total bases stands out on DraftKings, where it is available at +100 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -119 “true odds” for Henderson to stay under two total bases, which brings a stellar 8.8% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers and Unibet all the way down at a -139 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 6% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
It is never fun going against a hitter of Henderson’s caliber; however, this is where the market value is at the time of this article. Henderson has two or more bases in half of his games this season, though with the weather and a pitcher like RHP Ben Lively on the mound, there is reason to take this wager at even money, with a 54% probability of the swinging slugger falling short of two bases tonight.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can vanish in minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be equipped to grab these fleeting chances before they slip away.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Thursday, Aug 1
Ugh, weather is going to loom large over Thursday’s action as storm activity in the Midwest impacts Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit. Atlanta is also looking a summer humidity showers, with a Midwest tie-in hosting St. Louis. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
