MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 7
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Yes, everyone right now is groaning, having all been burned countless times by the 30-year-old hurler. POP QUIZ: In the last nine-plus seasons, how many has Berrios ended over a 4.00 ERA? The answer is one, 2022 when he had a 5.23 ERA in 32 starts for Toronto. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season he had a 4.00 ERA and 10 years ago in his rookie season, he had an 8.02 ERA in 14 starts.
So why are we always feeling burned by Berrios? Well his solid baseline performances tend to keep his salary somewhat elevated and then the home runs, which seem to come in bunches, get him when it is least expected.
In the last three-plus seasons, Berrios has made 103 starts, ceding multiple home runs in 20% of them, including two of seven this season.
Mike Trout (knee) is on the injured list, though Yoan Moncada returned to action this week. Still, the projected lineup for the Halos has a 23.9% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season-plus, which bodes well for Berrios who needs a little help in this department.
One last note on Moncada, he does have 39 at bats against Berrios, with 12 base knocks, including three doubles and three home runs. He also has 10 strikeouts, which pretty much encapsulates as a player, what the league looks like against Berrios. Salt to taste in this one, but it looks like the veteran ace is going to be a major decision point for gamers on Wednesday.
In Tampa, LHP Cristopher Sanchez will be facing the Rays, at George Steinbrenner Field. The 28-year-old left his Apr. 22 start in the second inning with left forearm soreness. The Phillies gave him a little extra time between starts and he returned to action on Apr. 30, recording five innings, five hits three walks and six strikeouts, with two earned runs, across 887 pitches against the Washington Nationals. He has a nice mix of groundballs and strikeouts, which has made him a pseudo frontline starter, who can dominate in the right matchups.
Pittsburgh is a top heavy lineup, anchored by budding superstar Oneil Cruz, veteran switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds, Bucs legend Andrew McCutchen and talented youngster, Enmanuel Valdez. If Gray can mitigate the production of this quartet, he should be able to breeze through the backend of the order in Tommy Pham, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Adam Frazier and Jared Triolo.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Toronto Blue Jays
Depending on the weather in Kansas City, the Royals also profile well against RHP Jonathan Cannon, which has the Blue Jays flying under the radar. Toronto will be facing LHP Yusei Kikuchi, who has been having issues with walks this season. In his last six starts, the soon-to-be 34-year-old has handed out 19 free passes in just 30.1 innings. He is coming off a game where he settled down against Detroit, limiting the Tigers to just two runs, with one walk. Of course his other issue popped up in that game, with the southpaw ceding a pair of round-trippers, suffering his second multi-home run game of the season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been elite against lefties, with a .400 wOBA and .233 ISO in his last 166 plate appearances. Former Baltimore batsmen Anthony Santander does some of his best work from the right-side of the plate and catcher Alejandro Kirk is a terrific way to meet the catcher requirement on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Bo Bichette has remained in the doldrums for the last season-plus, but veteran George Springer is locked in at the moment and can be used to round out full-stacks.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Houston Astros
So why is Houston the recommended stack? Well dear reader, it is because RHP Quinn Priester is toeing the rubber in Milwaukee this afternoon. Priester was the 18th overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft, being selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of high school. He meandered through the minors, finally getting a cup of coffee for the Bucs, before being traded to Boston. He had one appearance in The Show for the BoSox, before being dealt to Milwaukee for what amounted to a bag of used baseballs.
Walks have been a major issue for Priester, who already has 16 in 23.1 innings this season, with only 17 strikeouts. The only favorable attribute he has, other than being healthy, is the ability to induce groundballs at close to a 55% rate. Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes and Aaron Civale are all on the injured reserve, with Freddy Peralta dinged up as well. The lack of options is about the only reason Priester is currently up with the Brewers right now.
The ‘Stros listed in the lead paragraph are the ones to target, along with outfielder Jake Meyers who has moved up in the order due to the absence of Alvarez.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Ray is a strikeout artist, who can collect them in bunches. He has tallied seven or more in four of his last five starts, though he also has four or fewer in a trio of tilts. The Cubs have one of the best offenses in the league with very few easy outs and only Pete Crow-Armstrong strikes out at an above league average rate against southpaws. Chicago has power upside throughout the lineup and enough disciplined batsmen at the top of the order, which could force Ray to use up his pitch count quickly.
