MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 11
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Focusing on the projected lineup, Chicago is better suited to face lefties, with a collective .131 ISO and a 21.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers. The top of the lineup is dangerous, as switch-hitter Ian Happ, lefties Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch and Yamamoto’s countryman Seiya Suzuki all crush against righties, each boasting a .200 ISO or better since the start of last season. The tradeoff is that each strikes out well above league average, save for Tucker.
Still, it is hard to ignore RHP Nick Pivetta taking on the woeful Rockies, who are coming off a homestand at elevation. Time and again we have seen teams struggle the day after leaving Coors Field since the altitude has a profound impact on breaking pitches. That can be just enough of an edge for opposing pitchers, which has the potential to magnify the struggles of this punchless offense that has scored the fourth-fewest runs (40) in the league this season.
In his first start, Pivetta held the Atlanta offense (prior to the suspension of Jurickson Profar) scoreless for seven innings with just one hit against four strikeouts. Next up was a tough matchup in Wrigley, where he ceded three runs and lasted just three innings. The 32-year-old is an experienced frontline starter who should be able to get in the groove tonight against Colorado. In his last four seasons in Boston, Pivetta traded home runs (1.47 per nine innings) for strikeouts (10.18 per nine) at an acceptable rate for DFS purposes. Anything less than a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts will be considered a failure.
For those feeling frisky, “laddering” Pivetta’s strikeouts up to nine is a viable path for additional upside. This can be accomplished on sports wagering or pick’em sites that offer alternate lines. Typically a 60%/30%/10% or a 50%/25%/10%/5% breakdown of a standard wagering unit is preferred. In these cases the “lower” rungs’ success in turn funds the buy-in for the upper levels, with a magnified payout if multiple wagers come through.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
This is the 14th MLB campaign for Quintana, who has been in the “crafty lefty” part of his career for the last few seasons. Once a feared strikeout artist, he has notched barely 7.2 per nine innings for the last three years.
Typically he manages to hold his own when it comes to run prevention through guile and a solid mid-40% ground ball rate. However, he allows a lot of hard hits, which can be problematic when runners are on base.
Arizona is missing the bat of switch-hitting maven Ketel Marte, though that will likely land Geraldo Perdomo at the top of the order, where he is pesky enough to get on base. Plus, with his sub-10% strikeout rate against southpaws, he puts a lot of balls in play.
Veterans Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk should be in the heart of the order, providing additional discounted pop. Eugenio Suarez continues to be locked in, and he is another good power source.
Lefties Corbin Carroll and Josh Naylor do not have good contact rates against fellow lefties, but when they connect, each has above-average extra-base-hit potential. The Milwaukee bullpen is suspect this season, and the decimated rotation is not doing it any favors. Each reliever appeared at least once in Coors Field, save for closer Trevor Megill.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Athletics
It is going to be in the mid-60s tonight in West Sacramento, with Sutter Health Park playing more neutral under these conditions. Of course, both pitchers have a propensity for allowing longballs, regardless of field size and conditions. Canning was terrible last year with a career-low 6.82 strikeouts per nine innings, leading to a career-worst 5.19 ERA and 4.74 xERA. The former Angel is not shy about challenging opposing hitters, but that comes at the expense of extra-base hits, including 1.56 home runs per nine innings for his career. Having been in the American League West the last five seasons, several of the Athletics have solid history when facing Canning.
While it is early in the season, it is fun seeing both Tyler Soderstrom (six) and Brent Rooker (four) among the home run leaders. Soderstrom was the top prospect for the A’s, and it looks like he is going to be in the heart of the order — well, at least until the team trades him as part of its perpetual rebuild. Rooker has been borderline elite in same-handed matchups over the last year, with a .377 wOBA and a .244 ISO. The tradeoff is a lofty 30.5% strikeout rate, but that doesn’t impact his DFS production.
Leadoff man Lawrence Butler and catcher Shea Langeliers are also top options who are worthy of being one-offs as well. For those looking to craft full stacks, JJ Bleday fits the bill, though it will make for an all-A’s outfield. The bottom of the lineup is manned by aging former Yankees Miguel Andujar and Gio Urshela, along with youngsters Jacob Wilson and the “other” Max Muncy. That could make for some three-up, three-down innings, even for a pitcher of Canning’s caliber.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take today’s first-five-innings total of 4.5 with the Milwaukee Brewers in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, for example. The over is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Milwaukee is coming off a three-game series at Coors Field, so it could see a bit of an adjustment period, though LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is far from a shutdown starter. The DFS breakdown detailed the likely matchup for the Diamondbacks, which is why this wager is popping in the models.
