Tuesday has all of the featured action built around a 10-game slate, with a 7:20 p.m. first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Nestor Cortes as the key arms to build around, while Atlanta and the New York Yankees are the teams to target for stacks, along with the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 28
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR at CHW)
Blue Jays at White Sox – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$10,200 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Zack Wheeler looking like a strong play, particularly on FanDuel and Yahoo where he is only $600 and $4 more than RHP Kevin Gausman. Wheeler gets a park upgrade in San Francisco tonight, though a slightly tougher lineup than what Gausman will see in Chicago.
When he is on, he is one, when he is not, well it has been messy. In a trio starts against the Twins and Rockies, both in Toronto and then in New York against the Yankees, the 33-year-old allowed 24 hits, two walks and 19 runs, with three home runs, in eight total innings. Fortunately only one of those outings was in the last seven starts. In five of his last seven starts, Gausman has allowed one run or less, with just three in the other. Gausman also has 30 strikeouts with just one home run in his last 20.1 innings, which is a better indicator of his current form.
TLDR: Gausman is in top form and facing the worst offense in the league. Enjoy!
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Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Nestor Cortes (NYY at LAA)
Yankees at Angels – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$9,500 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
May has been kind to LHP Nestor Cortes, who has tallied 23.2 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, with 26 strikeouts, ceding just two home runs. Though he has allowed four runs in four different starts, those were the “worst” outings for Nasty Nestor this season.
When his funky delivery and arm slot variations are working, he generates around a strikeout per inning, yet still has a respectable walk rate. Los Angeles has been struggling to generate consistent offense and the Angels have plate four or fewer runners in six of their last eight games. The park upgrade and weather will be favorable for Cortes when compared to Yankee Stadium.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays at White Sox – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Mike Clevinger
DK Top Stack %: 7.3%
FD Top Stack %: 8.2%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool encourages everyone to partake in the Coors Field Extravaganza today, but that is too easy for analysis. Instead, let’s look to the Toronto Blue Jays, who are finally coming out of the doldrums. Toronto has scored the fifth-fewest runs this season, but the Jays have 51 runs over the last nine games.
Injuries cost RHP Mike Clevinger most of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, taking away two years of his prime. This is his age-33 season and the former frontline ace has again been dealing with health. He has made four starts this season and ramped up to 97 pitches in his last appearance, but he has yet to close out the fifth inning. While his fastball is at 93.2 mph this season, that is down two full ticks from his prime and it no longer has the same movement and pop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Bo Bichette continue to round into better form and are playing up to their talents over the last couple weeks. Dan Vogelbach could be in the lineup today, which is another power bat for Toronto. Daulton Varsho, Danny Jansen and Davis Schneider have been the unsung heroes holding things together while their more talented teammates have worked through some wicked cold streaks.
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Late Slate Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at Angels – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:30 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Canning
DK Top Stack %: 10.1%
FD Top Stack %: 9.9%
This has been a rough season for RHP Griffin Canning, who has muddled his way to a 2-4 record, with a 5.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across 10 starts. He has just 36 strikeouts, but 21 walks in 51.2 innings. While his May numbers look good on the surface through four starts with a 1.99 ERA, he has been very lucky. Despite allowing four round-trippers, the 28-year-old has somehow suffered just five earned runs. The nine walks and 23 total baserunners in this timeframe are likely to lead to crooked numbers if Canning continues on this course.
It should be no surprise to learn that the Yankees are leading the league in home runs and total bases, sitting just five runs out of second place in the scoring column. The addition of Juan Soto is paying dividends, as are having Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton healthy (knock, Knocking, KNOCKING ON WOOD!). Anthony Rizzo has worked his way out of an early season swoon, while Alex Verdugo and Anthony Volpe have more than held their own. DJ LeMahieu has returned from injury, but it is hard to count on the former two-time batting champion, who has lost power steadily over the last couple of seasons. Still he is a luxury as the eighth or ninth batter in the order for New York.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Sal Frelick is jumping up in the OddsShopper model with the over 0.5 RBI prop. The +320 wager is currently available at DraftKings and -120 at BetMGM.
New players on BetMGM can get up To $1,500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if their First Bet Does Not Win. See details here.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +287 “true odds,” so the +320 line brings a fantastic 14.5% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with sharp book Unibet and BetRivers offering a punitive +205 line. Be a savvy shopper!
Frelick will have the platoon-advantage over fellow youngster RHP Ben Brown. The 24-year-old hurler has appeared in 12 games this season, with five starts. He has an elevated line drive and fly ball rates, which bodes well for Frelick to potentially loft a sacrifice fly or get one in the gaps. Of course he will need someone to be on base, otherwise he would need to knock one out of the part to get an RBI.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Tuesday, May 28
Detroit looks a little dicey on the early evening slate, with Chicago the only elevated concern on the featured-slate. It looks like the precipitation should be clearing out around first pitch, so the ChiSox and Blue Jays should be good to go. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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