Sunday winds down the weekend with a festive featured slate, locking at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is focusing on the four afternoon games, along with ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, giving gamers a different puzzle to solve. Before we dive into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to figure out how to build MLB DFS stacks, find top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Max Fried on the main slate, with Matt Waldron a pivot away from Zack Wheeler in the afternoon action. Stacking partners include Atlanta once again as well as Minnesota on the main slate. The late slate brings the New York Mets into the fray, granting fun times all around.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 4
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Max Fried (ATL vs. MIA)
Braves vs. Marlins – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has rookie RHP Paul Skenes with the highest fantasy projection on the slate. He is taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have been on one heck of a heater since the All-Star Break, winning 10 of 14 (71%) of their games and scoring five runs or more nine times.
Factoring in salary, which, of course, is necessary in DFS, Skenes is a more neutral option. RHP Gerrit Cole gets the hapless Blue Jays, but there is rain forecast in the Bronx this afternoon. These factors are pushing gamers towards LHP Max Fried in a terrific matchup against the Miami Marlins, who traded away half of their Opening Day offense.
We will want to monitor the weather in Atlanta since there is a chance of afternoon humidity showers, but otherwise this is a pristine matchup for Fried. The Marlins have scored four runs or fewer in eight of 15 (53%) of their games since the All-Star Break, continuing the season long trend of being an inept offense. The projected lineup has six hitters who have struck out at least 24% of the time against southpaws since the start of last season. Even with Fried’s strikeout rate dipping from 24.9% last year to 21.6% this season, he is in a good spot today.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI at PIT)
Diamondbacks at Pirates – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
$5,900 at DraftKings
$8,400 at FanDuel
$36 at Yahoo
This is a DraftKings recommendation only for the ridiculous $5,900 salary assigned to RHP Ryne Nelson. For gamers playing on FanDuel, stay with the top-shelf options like Fried, RHP Corbin Burnes ($10,100) and Cole ($9,100) if the weather holds. For those dabbling on Yahoo, go with RHPs Spencer Arrighetti ($35) or Tobias Myers ($38) in better matchups, or, of course, the bargain of the year in the next section.
Last year and for the first half of this season, Nelson was someone to target with good offenses. It took him a while to get his sea legs, but the youngster has clearly found his footing and is making good on his promising prospect status, albeit a little behind schedule. In six July starts, Nelson compiled a 2.41 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. Considering this included games in Kansas City and San Diego while also facing the National League clubs in Chicago and Los Angeles, this is not a fluke.
There will be missteps here and there, but with today’s silly salary on DraftKings, we should not be overly concerned with the 4.2 team total for the Pirates. If Nelson was carrying a tag of $7,500 or more, then we would have a tougher decision point.
Late Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Matt Waldron (SD vs. COL)
Padres vs. Rockies – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$26 at Yahoo
For the afternoon action, RHP Zack Wheeler in Seattle against the K-happy Mariners is the key building block. The next man up is RHP Matt Waldron, the lone regular practitioner of the knuckleball, which he uses nearly 40% of the time.
It is great when the knuckler is dancing, as evidenced by Waldron’s 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. When it is not, things get a little dicey as none of his secondary offerings stand out on their own. This is best represented by July, with the 27-year-old posting a 4.97 ERA — though with a 1.10 WHIP, we can see the damage was mostly done via five round-trippers, which produced eight of the 16 “Ernies” in this timeframe.
The league did not “figure out how to hit the knuckleball,” as some may think. Rather it was just some poor variance against some excellent offenses, with games against the Braves, Diamondbacks and Dodgers at home, and the Guardians and Nationals on the road. Colorado is one of the least efficient offenses by most advanced metrics, which works in favor of Waldron this afternoon.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Marlins – 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Edward Cabrera
DK Top Stack %: 11.3%
FD Top Stack %: 11.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is going back to Atlanta again, even after having the hopes and dreams crushed for the first three games of this series, with the stacks accounting for “only” 12 runs.
RHP Edward Cabrera has always had walk issues, with a career rate of 5.4 per nine innings. In the five starts since missing two months with a sore shoulder, the 26-year-old has logged 22 innings, allowing 16 runs with 12 walks and 22 strikeouts. This includes outings against the White Sox and Rays, making this poor production that much worse.
Saturday the Marlins used five relievers in securing the win, three of whom have now worked on consecutive days, including the lone lefty Andrew Nardi. That still leaves RHPs George Soriano, Emmanuel Ramirez and Shaun Anderson fresh but also not particularly scary.
Load up on pretty much anyone in the lineup today for Atlanta. Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley make up the power trio to target, with Jorge Soler close behind. Catcher Sean Murphy, shortstop Orlando Arcia, and lefty outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Eddie Rosario make up the differentiation options.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Minnesota Twins
Twins vs. White Sox – 5.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Flexen
DK Top Stack %: 7.1%
FD Top Stack %: 7.4%
Why, hello there, RHP Chris Flexen. This poor chap has been written up at least a half a dozen times this season, with a chance at reaching double digits. That is the only silver lining for the baseball nomad — well, that and making nearly all of his $15.4 million in career earnings since washing out with the Mets and reinventing himself in the KBO during the 2020 pandemic season. That is called betting on yourself and winning!
In six July appearances and for the whole season, Flexen has a 5.13 ERA. The White Sox are Flexen’s third team in the last two seasons, having been released by the Mariners and then not impressing the Rockies over the final couple months of last year. Tasked with eating innings, Flexen is the perfect pitcher to target against, as he has a low strikeout rate of 6.4 per nine innings while allowing plenty of hard contact (44%) and ample line drives and fly balls.
Minnesota has tremendous power in the lineup, with Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda each boasting a .200 ISO or higher this season against right-handed hurlers. Switch-hitters Willi Castro and Carlos Santana can hold their own, giving DFS gamers plenty of ways to approach this stacking puzzle today.
Late Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
Mets at Angels – 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Canning
DK Top Stack %: 19.1%
FD Top Stack %: 19.3%
Well, hello there, RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning. July has been a rough one for the batting-practice-level hurler, ceding half a dozen earned runs on Tuesday to the visiting Colorado Rockies and gifting the same honor to the Athletics in Oakland three starts ago.
But wait, there’s more — Canning also allowed five runs to Detroit, so that means in his last three starts against weak and in some cases dreadful offenses, the 28-year-old has suffered 17 runs in 15.1 innings. New York is trying to escape the #LOLMets moniker, with the team winning eight of the last 12 (75%) games. The offense has done its part with run totals of six, 12, eight and 15 in this stretch while averaging 5.3 runs per game.
The addition of Jesse Winker brings another above-average left-handed bat into the lineup, closing out one of the remaining holes. Catcher Francisco Alvarez has been in a funk for the last month, but in the same timeframe, Jeff McNeil seems to have escaped the doldrums with a .412 wOBA and a .324 ISO in his last 78 plate appearances.
That still leaves the luxury options of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez and Brandon Nimmo, crafting a strong core four at the top of the order. Even though the Metropolitans will be wildly popular, there are plenty of ways to build differentiated stacks for the afternoon tournaments.
Stokastic’s Lineup Generator offers outstanding value! Discover how to maximize its potential and boost your MLB DFS picks with our in-depth Lineup Generator Guide.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
This afternoon, RHP Gerrit Cole is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market. Currently, the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop stands out on Caesars, where it is available at +136 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +131 “true odds” for Cole to stay under six strikeouts, which brings a 2.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by sharp book FanDuel posting a +112 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI.
PointsBet is taking a different approach, moving the line up to 6.5 strikeouts and -160 odds. This all makes sense, with Cole projected for 5.9 strikeouts today.
While the 2.4% expected ROI is not overly sexy, the +136 odds are enticing when considering the weather and the matchup. There is rain in the forecast during the game window, which could lead to an in-game delay. Additionally, the projected Toronto lineup has an 18.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. These are the little edges that add up and could lead to a nice payday.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can disappear within minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be ready to seize these fleeting chances before they’re gone.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Sunday, Aug. 4
Sunday looks good from a weather perspective, as long as we are okay skipping the game in New York City. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, be sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
