Saturday brings two waves of games, with the first set beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET and the second locking at 7:35 p.m. on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo has elected to include the games beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET, so do not miss the first pitch! Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Matt Waldron and Hunter Brown as the key arms for the evening entertainment, while Kyle Gibson is a strong SP2 for the afternoon action. The Padres look like the go-to team tonight, while the Red Sox are the early team to target.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 8
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Matt Waldron (SDP vs ARZ)
Padres vs. Diamondbacks – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$10,900 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitcher’s Tool has given the seal of approval to the featured slate, with multiple pitching options, despite only eight teams in action. First up is RHP Matt Waldron, who is the main knuckleball practitioner in The Show. Yes, there are several hurlers who work in a knuckle-curve or knuckle-change, but Waldron is the only one to make it a featured part of his repertoire consistently.
Over his last five games, the 28-year-old has allowed just six runs and one home run in 29.1 innings. In this stretch he also has an acceptable six walks with 35 strikeouts. This has culminated in a 3.98 ERA, 3.30 FIP and 3.80 xFIP. The Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman got to him for the lone round-tripper, while our hero also survived starts in Great American Ballpark and Truist Park.
In a baseball being baseball moment, his worst start of the season was half a dozen games ago, when Waldron was lit up for eight runs in three innings of work in Arizona. Of course that does not portend success for the Diamondbacks tonight, but it is still worth noting. Arizona is in the top 10 for runs, total bases and extra-base hits. The team has been better against southpaws, as they have managed a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, indicating that they create runs 5% less efficiently than the league average, which also lands them in the bottom third of the league.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU at LAA)
Astros at Angels – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET
$7,100 at DraftKings
$7,900 at FanDuel
$35 at Yahoo
Somehow both the backers and detractors of RHP Hunter Brown have both been disappointed this season. It clearly has been a rollercoaster ride for the soon-to-be 26-year-old, who finds himself saddled with a 6.18 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and a 1-5 record.
Home runs and walks have been an issue for Brown, with three multi-home run games in his 11 starts and five games with at least three free passes. He has been an above-average strikeout pitcher, with 60 in 55.1 innings, and there has been an improvement in his groundball rate over the last month. In his six most recent appearances, he has tallied 32.1 innings, with 36 strikeouts and a 3.62 ERA, though the 4.53 FIP indicates he is not out of the woods yet.
The Angels have been a frequent target in this article series, particularly after losing Mike Trout to a knee injury. Brandon Drury (hamstring) is getting closer to a return but still is likely a couple of weeks away, and Anthony Rendon remains out. Keeping in mind that Shohei Ohtani is now with the other LA franchise and we can see how the Halos have lost a boatload of offensive depth.
It has been 15 games since Los Angeles last put five or more runs on the scoreboard, which is dreadful. The team is averaging just 2.5 runs per game during this stretch and there are no signs that they will be breaking out of the doldrums anytime soon.
Early Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Kyle Gibson (STL vs. COL)
Cardinals vs. Rockies – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:15 p.m. ET
$6,900 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
There is no shortage of pitching options on the 10-game early slate, with frontline aces RHP Freddy Peralta and RHP Kevin Gausman taking on the Tigers and A’s, respectively. RHP Brayan Bello is not in the best form, but he has a matchup against the dreadful White Sox and venerable veteran RHP Charlie Morton will be looking for a little payback against Washington after the Nationals handed him his worst outing of the season 10 days ago.
The salary for RHP Kyle Gibson is popping off the page on DraftKings and Yahoo, making him a perfect SP2. On FanDuel, it makes sense to roster one of the four hurlers listed above before considering Gibson. That is not a major slight against the 36-year-old, but if he does not earn the quality start bonus on the blue site, he typically does not have enough consistent strikeout upside to paper over that misstep.
Gibson does strike batters out, though even with 31 whiffs in his last 32.1 innings, most season-long projection systems (Steamer, ZiPS, The Bat, etc.) have him around 7.1-to-7.4 per nine innings, which would be his lowest rate since the 2018 season. This is a price play and a solid matchup against a team that is in the bottom-third of the league for runs scored despite playing in Coors Field for half of their games.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Diamondbacks – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ryne Nelson
DK Top Stack %: 17.1%
FD Top Stack %: 18.3%
We’ll talk about the Padres in a second, but real quick: the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Cleveland Guardians, who are in Miami taking on RHP Roddery Munoz. After being released by Atlanta last season, Munoz bounced between Pittsburgh and Washington, before landing with the Marlins.
Munoz has a 95-to-97 mph fastball — but with limited movement — and no secondary pitches. He is a batting practice candidate, as evidenced by facilitating four home runs for the Dodgers in his last MLB appearance. Last Saturday, in Triple-A, Munoz allowed seven runs to the Durham Bulls. The Guardians are a strong featured stack or as one-offs on the night slate.
But back to the Padres, they will be facing RHP Ryne Nelson, who has been dealing with control issues, allowing nine walks in his last six starts. While that may not seem too bad, he also has just 19 strikeouts in these 32.1 innings, with a ridiculous 45 hits. When he is not missing the zone, he certainly is not missing bats, which is perfect for San Diego stacks.
Jake Cronenworth stands out as a home run option in the sports wagering world and a strong DFS play. In his last 183 lefty-righty plate appearances, he has a .365 wOBA and a .233 ISO, while Nelson is ceding a .230 ISO in his last 431 opposite-handed matchups. Fernando Tatis Jr. rates out as another top option, with a .366 wOBA and .209 ISO in his last 192 same-handed matchups. Nelson has seen fellow righties compile a .213 ISO since the start of last year, which makes most hitters look like borderline All-Stars.
Manny Machado missed last night’s game with a sore hip, which he injured on Wednesday in Anaheim. He did pinch-hit on Thursday but is considered day-to-day for the weekend. If he is in the Friars’ lineup, he can be in ours, though there is always a risk of reaggravation. If Machado is out, we can skip Donovan Solano, who is better against lefties, but it will cement Jurickson Profar with a good spot in the order and, of course, leadoff man and two-time batting champion Luis Arraez is always fun at the top of stacks.
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Early Slate Target: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox at White Sox – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Nick Nastrini
DK Top Stack %: 7.2%
FD Top Stack %: 7.1%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool once again would like to direct your attention to the team facing RHP Nick Nastrini. In his last start, the 24-year-old allowed four runs in four innings … lowering his ERA to 9.74 and validating the Top Stacks Tool for commemorating Sunday as National Nick Nastrini Day!
In his five starts this season with Chicago, the former UCLA Bruin and fourth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft has cobbled together 20.1 innings with a 9.74 ERA and 2.07 WHIP. The biggest hurdle has been his 20, yes TWENTY walks against just 14 strikeouts while in The Show. Nastrini has 49 innings at Triple-A between this year and last, with a solid 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but 2.0 home runs and 3.9 walks against inferior competition as compared to big league bats.
While there is rain in the forecast this afternoon, it does clear up this evening, so this game should be able to be played, albeit with a potential late start. The only other concern for Boston is that Tyler O’Neill lasted just one at-bat yesterday before leaving the game in the third inning with a sore right knee, the same affliction that landed him on the injured list in late May. He had a pair of multi-hit performances on Wednesday and Thursday after returning to action, so. hopefully, this was a precautionary move.
Over the six games preceding last night’s two-run travesty, the Red Sox scored 39 runs. The team ranks third overall for extra-base hits, fifth in total bases and 10th for runs scored this season. Rafael Devers is the crown jewel for stacking purposes, though Jarren Duran and Enmanuel Valdez have been valuable as well with sustained success against right-handed pitching over the last 15 months. If O’Neill is out, Dominic Smith will likely land in the heart of the order, though he is barely hitting his weight this season. Rob Refsnyder, who is someone to avoid for differentiation from other BoSox stacks is actually a strong play today as he profiles well against Nastrini. There are 20 teams in action on the early slate, so finding differentiation should not be a challenge.
If the weather is not cooperating in the Windy City, Seattle gets a good matchup in Kansas City against RHP Alec Marsh, who has allowed three home runs and 10 total runs in his last two starts. Milwaukee is in Detroit, taking on enigmatic RHP Casey Mize, who is still searching for game-to-game consistency. Toronto is in Oakland, partaking in a matchup against funky cold RHP Luis Medina. All three offenses are potentially sharp MLB DFS picks.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Kyle Gibson has been solid this season and throughout his career, but he is among the current wagers being highlighted by the OddsShopper model for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is the -105 currently available at DraftKings and PointsBet, with the -106 at FanDuel.and Caesars in the mix as well.
New players at Caesars Sportsbook can get a “secure” first wager up to $1,000. See details here.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -113 “true odds,” so the -105 line brings a decent 3.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with shops like Fliff and Pinnacle posting lines of -130 and -131, which is a horrible losing proposition. Be a savvy shopper!
Gibson does project for 5.6 strikeouts tonight, which is above the 5.5 threshold but still below the six needed for the under to lose. In his 12 starts this season, Gibson has recorded fewer than six strikeouts seven times, exactly six twice and more than six three times (8, 7 and 9). He has the tank to get to 100 pitches and he has closed out the sixth inning in 75% of his starts. Finally, it is worth noting that the projected lineup for the Rockies has a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change.
The one good thing for Colorado — despite the strikeouts — is that Ryan McMahon, Michael Toglia and Jake Cave all average 4.2 or more pitches per plate appearance this season. That is an elite rate == and one that can help Gibson burn through his pitch count.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Saturday, June 8
The Midwest is the trouble spot with Chicago, Cincinnati and Detroit the locations that could be looking at precipitation. Cincinnati looks like there will be no real challenges, but the other two venues are worth monitoring up until lock. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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