MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 13
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Keeping him healthy proved to be a savvy strategy with the Red Sox deciding to make a deal at the winter meetings, sending a top-50 and three top-25 prospects from the Boston farm system. The South Siders also moved most of their hitting assets at the trade deadline, losing others in the offseason. That means no more Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong and Yoan Moncada. That still leaves Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn, Michael A. Taylor and Lenyn Sosa, but that is far from a fearsome foursome.
For those not intrigued by this “Remember Me?!” matchup, LHP Carlos Rodon is facing the Giants, who do hit better on the road. Another lefty, Chris Sale, is going against the Tampa Bay Rays at George Steinbrenner Field, while a third southpaw, MacKenzie Gore, gets the Marlins in Miami, where the roof will likely be closed. That still leaves one more lefty in Cole Ragans on the road in Cleveland. The best right-hander is Hunter Greene, who will be looking to craft another strikeout masterpiece, this time against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. There is no shortage of arms on the Sunday main slate.
Both hurlers have solid run prevention skills and just enough strikeout upside to be tournament difference-makers when it all comes together. The favorable pitching weather and venue in Seattle are also a bonus.
Turning our attention back to King, though he only had two whiffs in his last appearance, he had 11 against Cleveland and a stellar 16 in his 13.1 innings. He also cut down his walks after issuing four to Atlanta in the opener. He had one free pass verses the Guardians and two on Monday in West Sacramento against the Athletics.
Last year, his first in San Diego and as a full-time starter after being a key asset moved from the New York Yankees in the Juan Soto deal, King averaged 10.42 strikeouts per nine innings, which was a top-7 mark amongst qualified pitchers. King has increased his workload from 76 to 88 to 101 pitches. The projected lineup for the Rockies has a 27.9% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season. That bodes well for King’s DFS prospects in all formats.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Ryan O’Hearn, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins and even new Baltimore batsman Tyler O’Neill have all had personal success against Berrios. In the opener, the Orioles put up six runs, including a trio of taters in Toronto on the 30-year-old hurler. He did have five strikeouts, but that is small consolation against half a dozen “Ernies.”
In his two subsequent starts, Berrios ceded only three runs, though the six walks in 12.2 innings are of concern — just food for thought with multiple stacking options on the featured slate.
Philadelphia has a nice opportunity this afternoon in St. Louis against RHP Matthew Liberatore. For the time being, the 25-year-old has a slot at the back of the rotation, though including his two starts this season, he has only 26 in his 93 appearances across three-plus seasons.
Liberatore was never really a prospect of note on industry lists, even though he was the 16th overall selection in the 2018 MLB Draft. Being a fifth starter or swingman is his likely destiny, with limited strikeout upside and a lot of contact by opposing batsmen.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are two of the best at getting extra-base hits, regardless of the handedness of opposing pitchers. Since the start of last year, each has a .210+ ISO and a 12% or better walk rate against fellow lefties. Nick Castellanos (.247 ISO, 184 plate appearances) has tremendous power with the platoon advantage in the same timeframe, and shortstop Trea Turner (.202 ISO, 187 PAs) is also elite. Alec Bohm and catcher J.T. Realmuto are above average as well. Based on who gets a day off (if any of the regular position players), utilityman Edmundo Sosa is a potential discount dandy, depending on his placement on the lineup card.
Late Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
Severino is not a bad pitcher; in fact, he made a pair of All-Star appearances for the Yankees in 2017 and 2018. However, the next five seasons saw him make only 45 outings, with injuries plaguing the pitcher prior to last year on the Mets. The appeal for stacking against the veteran is that he still challenges hitters, even though his best stuff is inconsistent in its availability. When he is on, he still has it, though reaching his former level of strikeouts has been fleeting at best. Most season-long projection systems have him for 7.6 to 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings, which is a significant drop from his 10.5 rate during his two All-Star seasons.
Best case for the Athletics is they get 25 to 28 starts and 170 to 180 innings a year from Severino over the next three seasons. For DFS gamers, expect to see the above-average power offenses being regularly recommended against the hurler, if not for full stacks, for one-offs and home run hunting.
Look to the core four at the top of the order with switch-hitter Francisco Lindor, superstar Juan Soto, masher Pete Alonso and unsung cleanup hitter Brandon Nimmo. For differentiation, Mark Vientos or Brett Baty are potential options.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take today’s Colin Rea under 3.5 strikeouts, for example. The under is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Strikeouts are not typically part of the equation for Rea, who projects for just over three tonight in Los Angeles, against the Dodgers. Across his last 734 batters faced, he had an 18.7% combined strikeout rate with below-average ground ball and above-average fly ball tendencies. Additionally, he dances with the devil regularly, as left-handed batsmen have a 50% hard-hit rate against him since the start of last year. The strategy of pitching to contact against the boys is blue is a tall order, particularly with their trio of MVPs at the top of the order. Additionally, this will be the first start of the season for Rea, who worked out of the bullpen for his three outings this season.
