Tuesday brings a robust 11-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is focusing on all 15 games and locking at 6:40 p.m. ET. Along with diving into today’s MLB DFS projections, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez and Grayson Rodriguez as the key pitchers tonight. The Coors Field Extravaganza will be key, with potential pivots being the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto and the Athletics in Oakland.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 6
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo (SEA vs. DET)
Mariners vs. Tigers – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$9,700 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Luis Castillo as the second-most popular pitcher on DraftKings, boosted by the second-best value rating. On FanDuel, the frontline starter is the second-most popular pitcher, though he falls outside the top 5 when it comes to value.
Riley Greene (hamstring) is still on the injured reserve, which takes one of the more effective bats out of the Detroit lineup. The Tigers have been almost competent this season, which is a major improvement for one of the worst offenses of the last half decade. Matt Vierling has actually been good, along with Greene, and youngsters Colt Keith and Wenceel Perez are holding their own at the top of the lineup. The return of Parker Meadows helps, but he still strikes out at a high rate. The projected lineup has average power against right-handed hurlers since the start of last year, but this motley crew is approaching a 25% strikeout rate in the same timeframe.
July was an excellent month for Castillo, with the 31-year-old posting a 1.99 ERA across 31.2 innings while earning a victory in three of the five starts. While he has been a top-25 pitcher once again, the 9-10 record is a testament to just how poorly the Seattle offense has been at creating runs. The team has the most strikeouts in the league, scoring the fourth-fewest runs on the season. The addition of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner cushions the absence of Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford but does not fully replace the production.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN at CHC)
Twins at Cubs – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
$8,000 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$47 at Yahoo
DraftKings has really relaxed the salaries for pitchers today, even more so than usual. There is a Coors Field Extravaganza, though no Colorado hitter is more than $4,900 and only three New York bats are above $5,000. The Wrigley Field forecast has wind, but it is coming in from left-center field, with gusts up to 30 mph.
This game features two excellent pitchers in RHP Pablo Lopez and LHP Shota Imanaga. Both are clearly in play, though the salary savings and better matchup have Lopez with the edge. Lopez has had some rough starts, including three games of at least six earned runs this season. That has left him with a 4.65 ERA, which is his worst of the last five seasons. However, in 12 of his 22 (55%) starts, the 28-year-old ace has held the opposition to two or fewer runs.
If Lopez is able to mitigate the top-half of the order, he should be in line for a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts. That would be a fine outcome for his salary, even on FanDuel ($10,000).
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (BAL at TOR)
Orioles at Blue Jays – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$10,300 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
Some would say this game is for the birds. RHP Grayson Rodriguez has not been afraid of challenging opposing hitters, leading to a career-high 10 strikeouts per nine innings. He also is improving his efficiency over last year, which has allowed him to pitch into the sixth inning more often than not.
The Toronto lineup is nowhere near as good as it was last year, with players slumping (George Springer), hurt (Bo Bichette) or with other teams (Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, Kevin Kiermaier). The Blue Jays rank 25th for runs scored and 23rd for power, though the team has been above average with a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Rodriguez lands in the Wild Card category due to a combination of salary, trickier strikeout matchup, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer both having strong historical results against him.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles at Blue Jays – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Bassitt
DK Top Stack %: 6.2%
FD Top Stack %: 6.2%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool loves the Mets in Coors Field, assigning a 20% probability that the team has the most fantasy points, which is double that of any other squad. The Rockies check in with an 8% likelihood of being the top scoring team, which is the third-highest projection.
The New York Yankees slot in between these two teams, but there is a good chance that game will be postponed due to weather, which should further buoy the popularity of the Coors Field Extravaganza. Milwaukee is also interesting against RHP Bryce Elder, who has been bouncing between Triple-A and the Atlanta rotation all year.
Update: Angels-Yankees has been postponed.
However, it is the Batters of Birdland who get the shoutout today in a matchup against RHP Chris Bassitt. The last three games have been pretty rough for the 35-year-old. Overall his numbers are similar to the last few seasons, but the consistency is lacking, with the tough stretches becoming more frequent. In these last three starts, Bassitt has logged 15.2 innings and a 7.47 ERA that indicates some bad luck against his 5.72 FIP and 4.42 xFIP. The four home runs are not helpful, but he at least has maintained close to a strikeout per inning.
The Orioles lead the league in home runs, along with a .198 ISO and a .256/.320/.454 triple-slash line that is the envy of the league. Even with Jordan Westburg and Jorge Mateo out with injuries, the team is loaded with All-Stars or above-average hitters at every position.
Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn and Colton Cowser are a fearsome foursome at the top of the order, creating a left-handed gauntlet. Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle used to occupy these slots, but they have given way to the younger talent, allowing them to see even better pitches deeper in the order. Catcher Adley Rutschman is better from the right side of the plate, so leaving him out of Baltimore stacks does create differentiation from the rest of the Orioles aficionados.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Oakland Athletics
Athletics vs. White Sox – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jonathan Cannon
DK Top Stack %: 4.6%
FD Top Stack %: 5.4%
Oakland pushed rookie Ky Bush off the field after the fourth inning, drawing five walks and adding two hits, three runs, and three strikeouts. Sadly, the A’s had just two extra-base hits, one of which was a pinch-hit home run by Lawrence Butler. Expect the boom-sticks to come out tonight against another rookie in RHP Jonathan Cannon.
Tonight will be the 14th appearance for Cannon, and while he has reined in his walk issues, he is striking out a paltry 5.9 per nine innings. It is unlikely he will be able to muster enough ground ball magic to escape this matchup unscathed.
Over the last 30 days, Lawrence Butler (.438 wOBA, .370 ISO, 80 plate appearances), Brent Rooker (.487 wOBA.439 ISO, 75 PAs) and Seth Brown (.426wOBA, .315 ISO, 58 PAs) have been crushing opposing right-handed pitchers. JJ Bleday is having the best season of his career, and catcher Shea Langeliers continues to make opposing pitchers pay for their mistakes.
Currently the White Sox are tied with the 1988 Baltimore Orioles for longest losing streak in American League history at 21 games. Chicago is still ahead of the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies, who have the modern-day record with a 23-game losing streak. The ChiSox are back on pace for a 38-122 record, which would be the worst of the modern era, set by the 1961 New York Mets in their inaugural season.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight RHP Luis Severino is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market. Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop stands out on Unibet, where it is available at -110 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -121 “true odds” for Hendricks to stay under four strikeouts, which brings a 4.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by sharp book Pinnacle posting a -154 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI.
Severino project for just 4.2 strikeouts, below the 4.5 line and, since there are no fractional strikeouts in a game, below the five needed for this wager to lose. Even as bad as the Rockies have been, and with the projected lineup striking out 26.8% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, Severino is not a strikeout pitcher. It has been a few years since the veteran hurler last had a 20% strikeout rate. Over the last 10 starts for the 30-year-old, he has tallied two, six, seven, four, three, three, one, two and four strikeouts.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can disappear in minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be ready to seize these fleeting chances before they’re gone.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Tuesday, Aug. 6
Cleveland and Pittsburgh are worth monitoring for the early slate, with New York looking at a potential postponement on the featured slate. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, be sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
Update: Angels-Yankees has been postponed.
