MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 14
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The Dodgers got to him in Los Angeles for four runs, including a pair of round-trippers in his first start, though he has settled down nicely, blanking the Yankees last Tuesday for six innings, four hits and a half a dozen strikeouts. In between, he handled the Mariners in Seattle, striking out eight and falling just one out shy of a quality start.
Milwaukee was top 6 in the league for runs scored last season and currently ranks fifth, so the Brewers do need to be respected. However, the core four of Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins are collectively better against right-handed pitching, and the bottom of the order with Isaac Collins, Vinny Capra and Brice Turang is ripe for three-up, three-down potential against Skubal.
Over the last two-plus seasons, May has made 17 starts, logging 89 innings with a 6-5 record and 7.08 strikeouts per nine innings. This is arguably the best matchup and variables he will have all year, and he still is far from a “must play” when factoring in salary, which, of course, we have to for DFS. In his last start, May held the Nationals to just one earned run, two unearned, in Washington. He had one lonely strikeout, and the home team ended up winning 6-4, leaving May with only 9.9 DraftKings points. FanDuel was a little more forgiving since he received the quality start bonus, but 22 fantasy points on the blue site is not exciting for a pitcher.
Valdez was under the weather in his last start, though that did not hinder his DFS results as the sublime southpaw racked up eight strikeouts and a quality start in Seattle. His matchup is tougher than May’s, but Nolan Arenado turns 34 in two days, and the next best bats against lefties is the unproven Luken Baker and a solid Willson Contreras. Keep in mind, Contreras is mostly a designated hitter or first baseman now that Paul Goldschmidt is with the Yankees. That means the mediocre bat of Pedro Pages is in the lineup, and with Masyn Winn on the injured list, Thomas Saggese will likely land in the lineup over lefties Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman, further watering down the batting order.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Kansas City Royals
These days, the Venezuelan’s velocity is in the very low 90s, so he has increased the use of his changeup to provide some differentiation off his fastball while employing sliders and sinkers. He is getting by on guile and craftiness, which is more typically seen in aging southpaws.
There is just enough of a ground ball lean that Carrasco can survive in some starts, but that is the exception rather than the norm these days. Last year he gave up five or more earned runs in six of 21 (29%) of his starts, and he already has ceded 10 “Ernies” in his 11.2 frames this year, with four longballs and five doubles.
The Kansas City offense should be mostly consolidated in the core four of superstar Bobby Witt Jr., venerable veteran Salvador Perez, slugger Vinnie Pasquantino (aka The Pasquatch) and the unassuming Michael Massey, who has quietly developed extra-base hit upside when holding the platoon advantage.
Since Friday, the New York bullpen has gotten some work, and despite the resources of the franchise, this is not exactly a feared collection of arms, with the average age of the collective relievers nearly reaching 32 years old. It is going to be a cool evening in New York, but that should not dissuade savvy gamers from employing this contrarian stack. For those who want safer stacks, then the Dodgers hosting RHP Antonio Senzatela in Los Angeles, the Rays hosting RHP Tanner Houck in the warm Tampa weather or the team below will be the roads more traveled tonight.
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Lucas blanked the Washington Nationals for five innings in his first start then followed that up by shutting down the Red Sox in Boston, aided by a career-high eight strikeouts. For perspective, in his 28.2 career innings, he has 28 strikeouts, though they are accompanied by a whopping 16 walks, creating a 6.28 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He would be better served as a multi-inning reliever who didn’t have to face an opposing batsman more than once per game.
There may be a little surprise on his side the first time through the order since Atlanta has never seen Lucas live. Of course, he is mostly a one-trick pony with some movement on his fastball but no other pitches worthy of worrying the opposition. That means the Atlanta hitters can either sit on “dead red” or wait for a mistake on a breaking ball that is broken.
The Atlanta lineup has some options, even with Ronald Acuna Jr. convalescing and Jurickson Profar suspended. The top of the order is still loaded with Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna and the return of catcher Sean Murphy. Matt Olson excels in same-handed matchups, with a .362 wOBA and .247 ISO in his last 200 plate appearances against fellow lefties. Michael Harris II may be dropped down the order, but he too has held his own against other southpaws, recording a .323 wOBA and .183 ISO in his last 163 chances. Veteran Bryan De La Cruz will have the platoon advantage against Lucas, and his glovework means he is not much of a pinch-hit risk. Stuart Fairchild is a discount dandy, though there is a decent chance he will be replaced by Jarred Kelenic when a right-handed reliever enters the game.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take today’s Carlos Carrasco under 3.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
This was discussed in the DFS analysis above, but to reiterate, strikeouts are no longer a part of Carrasco’s pitching performances. Yes, he could get to four and sink this under, but the numbers, which are inclusive of all various variables indicate the math is on our side.
