MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 8
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Last year, his first as a full-time starter, Ragans averaged 10.77 strikeouts per nine innings, which was among the league leaders. Minnesota is not likely to be caught napping this evening, considering last April Ragans had a sublime session against the Twins, striking out eight consecutive hitters.
The projected lineup for Minnesota has a 29.6% strikeout rate against southpaws dating back to the beginning of the season. The Twins clearly miss the bat of Royce Lewis, plus it is unlikely that Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach will be in the lineup against a fellow lefty.
The current collection of Seattle batsmen has fared better than most against Valdez (.289/.366/.472, 17 XBH, 40 strikeouts, 180 at-bats), though that should not be a deterrent against the ace of the Astros tonight. The M’s who have lower strikeout rates against southpaws do not have much in the way of power, and the power hitters in turn produce the strikeouts. It is going to be cold and damp in the Pacific Northwest tonight, which favors the pitchers. The M’s also lost leadoff hitter Victor Robles (shoulder), which takes a key speedster out of the lineup.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Turning our attention once more to Arizona, we have two veteran pitchers squaring off who are clearly not in a groove. The Chase Field roof is also slated to be open so fans can enjoy the mid-80s temperatures before the summer heat arrives. This bodes well for offense since it mitigates the impact of the humidor.
RHP Charlie Morton began his career before DFS was invented with an interesting history. For the first eight years of his career, he focused on inducing ground balls with a strong 55.3% rate.
That strategy was tweaked when he went to Houston, as the organization worked wonders and had the then-33-year-old go after more strikeouts. He was still solid with a 46.1% ground ball rate, but his strikeouts increased from 6.4 per nine innings to 10.4 in his last 1,240 innings.
The last couple of seasons have seen Morton’s walks and home runs increase, and the 41-year-old is down a couple ticks on the pitching radar. He did get 10 strikeouts against Boston in his last start, but he also ceded a pair of longballs and five “Ernies” in five innings, with only two outs via ground balls.
Arizona led the league in runs scored last year, and it has a very similar lineup, with the biggest change being the addition of Josh Naylor to replace Christian Walker. Corbin Carroll continues to improve, and he is quickly becoming one of the most complete players in the game with his power, speed and defense. It is unfortunate that switch-hitter Ketel Marte is injured, though that should give Pavin Smith a promotion to the upper half of the lineup card tonight. Add in Eugenio Suarez, who is locked in at the moment, and we have the makings of a Coors Field countermove.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Kelly is a fun story, with his meandering journey to the MLB ranks taking him to two colleges, with him actually being drafted three times, including in the 37th round by Baltimore after high school, the 22nd round by Cleveland after junior college and the 8th round by Tampa, after a year at Arizona State. He signed with the Rays and spent six seasons in the minors, making it as high as Triple-A Durham. Then he went to Korea, playing in the KBO for four seasons, when Arizona came calling and gave him a chance to make The Show, as a 30-year-old rookie in 2019.
The saying “better in real life” applies to Kelly, who has mostly been an effective middle of the rotation contributor, but not regularly a desirable DFS target. Now in his age-36 season, with a shoulder strain costing him a chunk of last year, we could see the baseball lifer at the end of his story.
Last night, the Batters of Birdland had a strong start, getting to Arizona ace RHP Zac Gallen for five runs in 4.2 innings. The offense stalled after that, but it looks like a breakout and more importantly “crooked numbers” are in the near future.
Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins thrive with the platoon advantage, with lefties already putting the hurt on Kelly with a .435 ISO in 29 plate appearances. Righties Jordan Westburg and Tyler O’Neill also have extra-base hit upside in same-handed matchups. Then there is switch-hitting catcher, Adley Rutschman, who is better against southpaws, but he fills the crucial catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo, batting in the two-hole.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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In a fun twist, Freeland has actually been better in Coors Field than on the road over the last two seasons. Of course, that is still a pretty small sample size, but the Denver native is certainly not afraid of playing at elevation. There is definite risk in hoping the southpaw stays under four strikeouts, which is why it is key to get this wager at +116 or better to be neutral on the expected ROI. The +130 is a strong enticement, which is why this wager has an OddsShopper rating of 10, which is impressive.
This season, Freeland recorded seven strikeouts in Tampa and three in Philadelphia. Last year he had four or more strikeouts in 11 of 21 (52%) appearances, landing on exactly four, four (19%) times. In 2023, Freeland had four or more strikeouts 12 times in 29 (41%) starts, with four on three (14%) occasions. This is going to be a nip-and-tuck adventure, but the math is on our side.
