MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 1
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Tonight the rotation is turning over to the top, with RHP Logan Gilbert toeing the rubber for the hometown heroes. Last year the 28-year-old led the league with 208.2 innings and 33 starts, accompanied by a 0.887 WHIP. He also finished sixth in the American League Cy Young voting while earning his first All-Star appearance. Gilbert did have a favorable .236 batting average on balls in play, so that is expected to regress more towards the norm. He is not afraid to challenge opposing hitters, giving him some strikeout upside in the better matchups. Expectations are for Gilbert to average around a strikeout per inning while calling on his ability to efficiently close out opposing batsmen by letting his defense do the work on ground balls.
Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene are the established lefties in the lineup, which to this point in his career have been the only hinderance for Gilbert. Young Colt Keith continues to develop, though he is not even close to the production of Carpenter and Greene. The rest of the Motor City Kitties are just happy to be in the league, which is why we will continue the tradition of the last half decade or so of targeting the Tigers with above-average pitchers.
Despite there being 21 runs in last night’s game, Sutter Home Park is still a pitching-friendly venue, with straightaway center checking in at 403 feet, right field at 325 feet and left field at 330 feet. For perspective, the dimensions of Oakland Coliseum are 410 feet to center and 330 feet down the lines. Six runs, including a trio of taters, were against RHP Joey Estes, who facilitated the recommended Cubs stack being a dominant force last night.
Adding more context from yesterday’s analysis of this ballpark, over the prior three seasons, the Sacramento River Cats saw “just” 9.3 runs per game scored at their home field. Yes, the Pacific Coast League has plenty of offense, but it is mostly concentrated in the high-elevation parks that also see favorable hitting weather. This group contains half the league, including Albuquerque (14.6 runs per game over the last three seasons), Las Vegas (13.7), El Paso (13.6) and Reno (13.3).
In his 308 innings in the two prior seasons, Steele compiled a 3.07 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 3.45 xFIP, with a scant 0.76 home runs and 2.13 walks per nine innings. He also has averaged over a strikeout per frame for his entire career, which is why we should be looking to him in this matchup tonight.
The Athletics have power against southpaws at the top of their lineup with Lawrence Butler (.230 ISO, 90 plate appearances), Brent Rooker (.298 ISO, 135 PAs), JJ Bleday (.231 ISO, 126 PAs) and catcher Shea Langeliers (.233 ISO, 145 PAs). However, this quartet has each struck out one-fourth of the time against lefties since the start of last season. The bottom half of the lineup is below replacement level against lefties, which bodes well for Steele to turn things around tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are playing in George Steinbrenner Stadium this season after hurricane Milton severely damaged the roof structure at Tropicana Field. This ballpark mimics the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, though the warmer weather and higher humidity are likely to dramatically impact things by the next homestand.
This evening, it is going to be in the low-80s with a pleasant (for Florida) 55% to 60% humidity range. That bodes well for the offense on both sides, though the Bucs are likely to have a tougher time against RHP Shane Baz than Tampa will against Pittsburgh’s rookie.
Brandon Lowe will be well served with this ballpark being friendly to left-handed hitters, much like Yankee Stadium. The same goes for Jonathan Aranda, who is likely to be in the heart of the order against right-handed hurlers.
Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Christopher Morel are the next trio to target, though keep in mind Diaz is not a traditional leadoff hitter. He is an on-base machine, but most of his power comes against lefties and he has little speed on the basepath, so he will need to score runs to be a difference maker in stacks. Kameron Misner and Jake Magnum are punt options with fewer than 40 combined plate appearance in The Show.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Toronto Blue Jays
The addition of switch-hitting Anthony Santander was a great move by Toronto since he will be able to give plenty of protection to potential MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and hopefully assist with the uneven results of Bo Bichette, who prior to last season’s debacle was an All-Star in two of the preceding three seasons while also leading the league in hits twice.
Andres Gimenez is more known for his glove, but he is the latest “oddball” option batting cleanup for the Blue Jays. He had hits in each of his five games, including three home runs and a pair of doubles, even contributing a stolen base on Monday. Respect the streak, as noted baseball philosopher Crash Davis once said, though do not expect this to become the new baseline production.
Veteran George Springer and youngster Will Wagner can be used for full five-man stacks, though that may be pushing one’s luck, with so many intriguing one-offs in Tuesday’s player pool.
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Sandy Alcantara is showing up in the Portfolio EV model for his under 5.5 strikeouts at +110 on Hard Rock.
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Alcantara is only two years removed from winning the National League Cy Young Award, but in that season, he had a so-so 8.15 strikeouts per nine innings. His calling card is going deep into games and facing a lot of batters while letting his defense do the dirty work. In his Cy Young season, he led the league with 228.2 innings and 886 batters faced but he barely cleared the 200-strikeout milestone (207).
It was a similar story in the preceding season, and while he didn’t lead the league, he was close with 205.2 innings and 837 batters faced, albeit whiffing “only” 201. Last season, his strikeout rate was a career-low 7.4 per nine innings, though he led the league with three complete games. This is less about picking on Alcantara for being bad and more about him willing to let hitters put balls in play.
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