Monday welcomes a new week with an eight-game featured slate beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is focusing on the five later games and locking at.8:05 p.m. ET. Before we get into today’s MLB DFS picks, we’ll leverage Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Logan Webb and JP Sears as the key pitchers tonight while doubling down with the Giants and Athletics stacks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 5
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb (SF at WAS)
Giants at Nationals – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Logan Webb with the second-highest median fantasy point projection, in a much safer matchup than RHPs Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Nola, who will be facing elite offense as they square off in Los Angeles.
It will be hot and humid with temperatures in the low-90s and 50% to 60% humidity in our nation’s capital. Fortunately, Webb is an elite ground ball artist, approaching a 60% rate over the last two seasons. This has helped him to a career-best 0.44 home runs per nine innings on the year, which is well below his 0.63 career ratio. Over the last dozen games, Washington has had some moments, with 10, 14 and eight runs, but that has been offset by three shutouts. The Nationals do not have much power, and while the projected lineup has a low 18.1 strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last year, it does not pose a serious threat to Webb.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP JP Sears (OAK vs. CHW)
Athletics vs. White Sox – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,700 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$36 at Yahoo
This series we have teams going in opposite directions. Over the last 30 days, Chicago has continued to be one of the worst offense of all time, leading to the current 20-game losing streak, which is the second of 14-plus games this season for the White Sox. Oakland has had an impressive offensive outburst, scoring 137 runs, which is the third most during this span while more than doubling the 64 of the ChiSox.
LHP JP Sears came over from the Yankees in 2022 as part of the haul for Frankie Montas, with the Athletics also receiving pitchers Luis Medina and Ken Waldichuk and infielder Cooper Bowman, sending catcher Lou Trevino along with Montas. Since the start of last year across 54 starts, Sears has been a solid contributor with a 4.54 ERA, slightly outperforming his 4.93 FIP and 4.99 xFIP. Though Sears has not wowed anyone with his strikeout upside, (6.94 per nine innings this year, down from a solid 8.41 ratio last year), in his last six starts, spanning 35.1 innings, he has 36 whiffs.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP David Festa (MIN at CHC)
Twins at Cubs – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
$6,100 at DraftKings
$6,700 at FanDuel
$30 at Yahoo
Chicago plated two runs in the fourth, fifth and sixth innings on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, erasing a 2-0 Cardinals lead on the way to a 6-2 victory. Ian Happ (shoulder) was a late scratch, and if he remains out today, that will take an effective hitter out of the lineup, creating an easier matchup for RHP David Festa.
Festa is the fourth-ranked prospect in the Minnesota system, slotting just outside the top 50 on most industry lists. Across 72.2 innings over the last two seasons at Triple-A, Festa had a wicked 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. If he can approximate something close to one per inning in The Show, he will have Twins fans grinning from ear to ear.
Chicago does have Cody Bellinger back in the mix after another injury stint. Though he is hitless in his last two games, he did have three consecutive multi-hit games after returning to action. Christopher Morel was dealt for Isaac Paredes, who is a strong hitter, rounding out a competent top 5 with Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki. The back of the order has been a mess this season, with Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson combining for just under a .100 ISO against right-handed hurlers, while Pete Crow-Armstrong is only in the lineup for defense and likely catcher Christian Bethancourt is a perennial nine-hole bat. Take the savings with Festa to craft some gloriously loaded offensive rosters for tournaments.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Francisco Giants
Giants at Nationals – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Patrick Corbin
DK Top Stack %: 14.2%
FD Top Stack %: 14.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool loves the weather for the Giants tonight, particularly since they are facing a fly ball pitcher who is a facilitator of home runs. To be fair, LHP Patrick Corbin is allowing 1.2 home runs per nine innings this season. That is well down from the prior three years when he ceded 1.7 per nine, serving up the second most in the league during that stretch. He was six shy of RHP Jordan Lyles, who was mashed for 103 taters. This is the final season of Corbin’s six-year, $140 million deal, but at least he did help the Nationals win the 2019 World Series.
San Francisco will be rolling out as many right-handed hitters as possible, with likely lefties Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski perfectly capable against fellow lefties. Matt Chapman and Mark Canha should both benefit from being out of Oracle Park. Young Tyler Fitzgerald seems to be able to mash the ball anywhere, so we should enjoy the heater while it lasts. Rookie Jerar Encarnacion is huge at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, but it has taken him eight seasons to reach The Show. Yahoo has made him unplayable with a $20 salary, though he is a discount dandy on DraftKings ($3.000) and FanDuel ($2,500).
Want to build your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to learn how to use simulations to help you refine your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Oakland Athletics
Athletics vs. White Sox – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ky Bush
DK Top Stack %: 7.1%
FD Top Stack %: 7.4%
It looks like RHP Jonathan Cannon will start tomorrow, with fellow rookie RHP Ky Bush expected to be called up from Triple-A prior to tonight’s game. Cannon will be someone to target against tomorrow, and Bush is in the firing line tonight. The 24-year-old is the 14th-ranked prospect in the White Sox system, having been selected in the second round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of St. Mary’s College.
Bush has just 19 innings at Triple-A, getting promoted a couple of weeks ago. Walks project to be an issue, with most systems having him at 3.8 per nine innings or higher. Strikeouts are lacking, and if he is not able to induce grounders, he could give up plenty of line drives in the gap or even home runs. Oakland struggled through the first three months of the season, but the team was still among the home run leaders. For the last six weeks, they have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the league while pushing up to the fourth-most home runs. Yes, the team strikes out a lot, which can quickly end innings, but if the A’s continue to get runners on base, the formerly solo shots will be racking up the fantasy goodness.
Over the last 30 days, Lawrence Butler (.380 ISO, 78 plate appearances), Brent Rooker (.406 ISO, 73 PAs), catcher Shea Langeliers (.226 ISO, 61 PAs) and Seth Brown (.333 ISO, 55 PAs) have been crushing opposing right-handed pitchers. JJ Bleday is having the best season of his career, and switch-hitter Abraham Toro continues to be competent. Between the current torrid stretch and a matchup against an unproven rookie, we have to strongly consider the Athletics tonight.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight, RHP Kyle Hendricks is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market. Currently, the under on his 3.5 strikeouts prop stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +128 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +123 “true odds” for Hendricks to stay under four strikeouts, which brings a 2.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers posting a +108 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI.
Much like yesterday’s recommendation with RHP Gerrit Cole, a 2.4% expected ROI is not a lot, but when a +128 wager hits, the payoff is nice. In his last five appearances of five or more innings, Hendricks has four, four, two, three and four strikeouts. In two other outings, spanning 5.2 combined innings, he tallied four total strikeouts.
The goal here is that the Twins boppers are able to force Hendricks from the game early, with some crooked numbers sending him to the showers prior to recording a fourth whiff.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can vanish within minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be prepared to capitalize on these fleeting chances before they disappear.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Monday, Aug. 5
There is rain in the Midwest, impacting St. Louis for those hardcore gamers playing the very-early slate, while on the featured slate, Chicago and Cleveland warrant observation. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
