Tuesday’s MLB action is arriving in the form of a nine-game featured slate, locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to pull in all 15 games for their biggest tournaments, with a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Today we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Logan Gilbert and Logan Webb are two of today’s key arms, with Andrew Heaney a point-per-dollar wild card. On the flipside, according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Red Sox provide non-Coors Field stacking opportunities as featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 27
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Mariners vs. Rays – 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$10,200 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool is going right back to Seattle for RHP Logan Gilbert, who will be looking to continue the success found last night by RHP Bryce Miller.
Tampa managed just one lonely run, with Josh Lowe getting to Miller in the second inning for a solo shot. The Rays also did their best Mariners impression, whiffing 13 times. This was a top-end outcome, though as called out yesterday, not a complete surprise. Once again we are likely to see Brandon Lowe (25.5%, .236 ISO), Christopher Morel (26.3%, .172 ISO), Jose Siri (38.7%, .168) and Josh Lowe (30.1%, .167 ISO) in the lineup, and despite their power potential, the strikeout upside is palpable.
This year Gilbert was a first-time participant in the All-Star Game, and he has continued to be a stabilizing force in the Seattle rotation. Across his 114 career starts, he has a 3.62 ERA, 1.08 WHP and nearly a strikeout per inning. This year he has improved his efficiency, averaging just 14.4 pitches per frame, which has helped him to 20 quality starts, tying RHP Zack Wheeler for the league lead.
Even with a Coors Field Extravaganza on tap, there are still plenty of cheap hitters across the main DFS sites, which make rostering Gilbert and a premier stack totally feasible.
Giants at Brewers – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
Milwaukee has actually been able to punch above its weight class without Christian Yelich. Over the 28 games he has missed, the team has averaged 4.96 runs per game, which is the ninth most in the league during this timeframe.
While RHP Logan Webb will have his work cut out for him, his strong ground ball lean, plus reasonable strikeout production, does help him limit bad performances. Four Brew Crew hitters in the projected lineup have struck out 26% or more of the time this season against right-handed pitching. Aside from Rhys Hoskins, the back half of the lineup lacks power, so we should give strong consideration tonight to Webb.
It is also important to note that running out both Logans in a lineup is a luxury strategy that could hamper tournament upside since it will come at the expense of hitters.
Rangers at White Sox – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$7,000 at DraftKings
$8,000 at FanDuel
$32 at Yahoo
This is a weather-dependent recommendation, though it looks like based on the morning forecast, there is a solid game window that should avoid most precipitation. That is key since we are going to want to ride with LHP Andrew Heaney in a dream matchup against the White Sox.
The current active roster for Chicago has a 73 wRC+ against lefties, which is a full standard deviation below the St. Louis Cardinals (90 wRC+), who are the third-worst team. This indicator shows that the ChiSox are creating runs 27% less efficiently than league average, with a top-10 strikeout rate and a beyond-pathetic .116 ISO.
Heaney does not have the same zip on his pitches that he did half a decade ago, but the 33-year-old is still a force when healthy. He is an unflappable veteran who should have been dreaming about this matchup for the last week or two. The one thing to keep in mind is that while Heaney is racking up the strikeouts, he is not particularly efficient at getting through innings. In three of his last five starts, he has field to close out the fifth inning. That, of course, keeps him from being eligible for the win.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Yariel Rodriguez
DK Top Stack %: 8.2%
FD Top Stack %: 8.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has the Rockies and Marlins combining for a 25% probability that one of these teams will be the highest-scoring stack of the slate. Moving on to alternative stacks, we have Boston in a fine matchup against RHP Yariel Rodriguez.
The Red Sox have an entirely different look now that Triston Casas and Tyler O’Neill are back to full health. Since the start of last season, the top 5 projected hitters in the Boston lineup each have a .200 ISO or higher against right-handed pitching. This includes Casas (.228 ISO, 490 plate appearances), O’Neill (.201 ISO, 420 PAs), Rafael Devers (.285 ISO, 773 PAs), Wilyer Abreu (.243 ISO, 378 PAs) and Jarren Duran (.240 ISO, 717).
Secondary options, who can be had at a discount to most of the five guys listed above, include Masataka Yoshida (.164 ISO, 674) and David Hamilton (.155 ISO, 293 PAs).
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and elevate your MLB DFS picks with our detailed Lineup Generator Guide!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Orioles – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Cole Irvin
DK Top Stack %: 7.8%
FD Top Stack %: 8.2%
In July, LHP Cole Irvin was demoted from the rotation to the bullpen then ended up in Triple-A, staying stretched out with the Norfolk Tides. He was called up last week to fill the slot vacated by Grayson Rodriguez, and the Dodgers are one of the worst teams he could face with his pitch mix and skill set.
The top 5 for the Dodgers makes their BoSox counterparts seem like they are playing wiffleball. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie, Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and catcher Will Smith each have a .225 ISO or higher against left-handed pitchers since the beginning of last year. Plus switch-hitter Tommy Edman is now healthy, and while he is still shaking off some rust, he is elite from the right side of the plate.
This is a tough matchup for RHP Yariel Rodriguez, as detailed in the Boston stack recommendation above. While Rodriguez does project for 4.7 strikeouts tonight, there still is value in the under on his 4.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetMGM, where it is available at +120 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +110 “true odds” for the venerable veteran to fall below seven strikeouts, which works out to a terrific 4.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers posting a -113 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI.
For the season, the active roster Boston is a little above league average with a 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers and a wicked .203 ISO. In his last three starts, Rodriguez has six, five and five strikeouts, so the path to success for this wager is to have the Red Sox do their damage early and often, chasing him to the clubhouse before he records his fifth strikeout.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Tuesday, Aug. 27
The games across the Midwest deserve a watchful eye, so keep tabs on Chicago and Detroit. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time draws near.
