MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 2
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
This year the rotation is even better, ceding the fewest walks in the league, along with the top-ranked 3.37 ERA while landing in the top 4 with a 3.62 FIP, 3.76 xFIP and 13.5 WAR. Sadly, though, the offense has sputtered to the fifth-fewest runs and the second-fewest total bases while leading the league in strikeouts. Yes, this is a recommendation for RHP Logan Gilbert but also an acknowledgement that the team is likely to miss the postseason for the 22nd time in the last 23 years.
The Oakland offense does have 22 more home runs than the M’s, but the Athletics have only 16 more runs scored, which works out to a paltry 4.08 per game, dipping to 3.84 over the last 30 days. There are plenty of strikeouts in the projected lineup, with a collective 26.3% rate against righties this season. Meanwhile, the latter half of the order has very little power — Daz Cameron (.062 ISO, 86 plate appearances), Max Schuemann (.083 ISO, 294 PAs) and Jacob Wilson (.000, 14 PAs).
Gilbert has been sublime, earning his first All-Star appearance while leading the league with 21 quality starts and a 0.900 WHIP. He also is averaging a strikeout per inning, and with the new faces in the Oakland lineup, the current roster has just 64 at-bats against him with 16 strikeouts and a .141/.167/.297 triple-slash line. Don’t think, Meat; just pitch Gilbert.
Detroit has improved on offense this season with 4.22 runs per game, including 4.44 over the last 30 days. While that is still below league average, it is a dramatic improvement from 2023 (4.08) and a last-place finish in 2022 (3.43). Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling have proven to be capable, but that quartet is the top 4 in the lineup, though on most other teams they would be slotted into the bottom third of the order.
Spencer Torkelson has returned from his MiLB banishment, and rookie Colt Keith has shown flashes, but this is still a motley crew. Special shout-out to reserve Javier Baez, who still has three years and $73 million remaining on his six-year, $140 million monstrosity of a contract that he signed at the start of 2022. Of course, he declined to opt-out this season since he realized he still gets paid sitting in the dugout, which is where he spends most of his time since his DGAF aura on the field is not good for the youngsters to see.
The main call-out here is to keep in mind that Burnes struggled in August with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP, accompanied by only 22 strikeouts and five round-trippers. It is also crucial to note that while he allowed only one “Ernie” against the Dodgers in Los Angeles last Wednesday, there were FIVE unearned runs as well.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the ChiSox on a 10-game losing streak, poised to reach 11 for the third time this season. They have scored more than four runs only twice in their last 18 games, being shut out twice and averaging 2.27 runs. Something’s gotta give — right?
RHPs Jack Flaherty in Arizona and Freddy Peralta at home against St. Louis may be the better options given the current form of Burnes, despite more difficult matchups.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Leiter is the son of Al (who pitched for 19 years in The Show), the nephew of Mark (who pitched for 11 years) and cousin to Mark Jr. (who is currently on the Yankees). Though he was the second overall selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, Leiter is the ninth-rated prospect for Texas and unranked on industry lists. He looked good in 80.1 Triple-A innings, with 12.6 strikeouts per nine, but the 5.3 walks and 1.9 home runs have him earmarked as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
New York has been otherworldly on offense this season, leading the league in home runs and walks, with the second-most runs and landing in the top 5 for total bases. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto rank first and third in OPS, and Judge leads the league with 51 home runs while Soto is fourth overall with 37 on the season.
Everyone is healthy with Anthony Rizzo returning to action yesterday, allowing New York to have a back of the order consisting of Rizzo, Anthony Volpe and Alex Verdugo. Rookie Austin Wells is making some late-season noise for the American League Rookie of the Year Award, trying to chase down Colton Cowser of the Orioles. That still leaves Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Jazz Chisholm. Yes, the bench is old D.J. LeMahieu, ineffective Trent Grisham and defensive-minded Oswaldo Cabrera, but with that starting lineup, who cares?!
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Main Slate Secondary Target: San Diego Padres
Madden was the 32nd overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, and he has the makings of a middle-of-the-rotation option who should carve out a nice career. His best pitch is his fastball, which sits in the 93 to 95 mph range, though he has to develop either his sweeper or changeup as a “gotcha” pitch to keep opposing hitters from sitting dead red.
Look to the boppers from the Padres tonight, with Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado being the power trio to target. Rookie Jackson Merrill is a strong secondary option, along with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez to round out full five-man stacks.
Early Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Aguiar is the seventh-rated prospect for Cincinnati, with an expected arrival date in The Show for 2025. The 23-year-old was a 12th-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft. He roared through the lower levels of the farm system but began to show his true talent level in Double-A and Triple-A. Most projection systems (Steamer, ZiPS, The Bat) have him projected for 6.8 to 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings, with solid control but underlying home run issues.
In his three starts for the Reds, he has allowed five home runs while only striking out seven in 14 innings of work. Just one of those games was in Cincinnati, where Oakland crushed him for a trio of taters and six runs, putting 12 runners on base and striking out once.
The Reds have burned through their bullpen this month, even turning to veteran catcher Luke Maile to take the mound three different times last month in mop-up duty.
This is pretty much a “play everyone” spot, with the usual core four being Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yainer Diaz. Don’t forget about the newest Astro outfielder in Jason Heyward, and Victor Caratini provides a punt option at catcher on Yahoo and DraftKings.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Brayan Bello will be taking on the Mets in their home park tonight, which is a double-edged sword. Yes, Citi Field is pitching friendly, but the Metropolitans have a deep lineup.
The OddsShopper model has the 25-year-old hurler for around 5.7 strikeouts tonight, just above the 5.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +116 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +108 “true odds” for the youngster to fall short of six strikeouts, and that works out to a terrific 4.0% expected ROI.
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Bello is coming off eight shutout innings against the Toronto Blue Jays and a lofty nine strikeouts. However, looking across his nine preceding starts, he has two, six, five, six, seven, four, seven and three whiffs. That is a good demonstration of a variable range of outcomes. It is key to get this wager down at plus money since there is a 48% probability of Bello falling shy of six strikeouts tonight.
With new wagers constantly appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having an OddsShopper +EV Bets subscription is crucial to capitalize on every opportunity.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Monday, Sept. 2
Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
