Friday has a festive 13-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to the pitchers in the Pacific Northwest, with Logan Gilbert and Bailey Ober as foundational pieces. On the offensive front, Cleveland, Boston and Detroit all rate out well in the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 28
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Bailey Ober (MIN at SEA)
Twins at Mariners – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$8,800 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes both sides of the pitching matchup as the Minnesota Twins square off against the Mariners in Seattle. This matchup has a sub-8.0 run total, and this pair of pitchers rate out with the best chances for top-3 fantasy finishes across the DFS sites.
Picking on Seattle is nothing new, particularly in T-Mobile Park, which is a very pitching-friendly venue. The Mariners have the sixth-fewest runs in the league this season, accompanied by the most strikeouts. The M’s have the eighth-most home runs this season, though they are bottom 10 for total bases and bottom 5 for doubles. It has been an amazing pitching staff that has carried the time to a first-place record in the American League West, leading the division by 4.5 games, even after going 3-6 on the recently concluded road trip.
Julio Rodriguez continues to hit without power, but he is on track to have 20 stolen bases by the All-Star Game. Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley and Mitch Garver are bringing some power, along with Dominic Canzone, but this quartet has a combined 30%-plus strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season.
RHP Bailey Ober is a decent pitcher, who usually can hold his own against equal talent. He is coming off back-to-back games against the Athletics, with the most recent being in Oakland on Saturday. In these tilts, he has a combined 15.1 innings, with 18 strikeouts and just three earned runs, two on solo shots. While it is unlikely Ober will have a second consecutive complete game, he should be in the mix for a quality start tonight, which is key on FanDuel with bonus points awarded for that milestone.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA vs. MIN)
Mariners vs. Twins – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,600 at DraftKings
$9,900 at FanDuel
$52 at Yahoo
This season, RHP Logan Gilbert has put everything together and he is 10th in the league with a 2.71 ERA and second with an 0.891 WHIP. He also is on the short list for the American League Cy Young Award, and he would be thrilled with a top-5 finish. Across four June starts, Gilbert has a 1.21 ERA and an 0.61 WHIP, buoyed by one lonely walk in 29.2 innings of action.
Minnesota is mostly healthy, which has been a rarity this season. That should give the Twins a boost, as they are already sixth in home runs, fifth in total bases and first in doubles. Gilbert has done a terrific job of limiting power this season, but when accounting for his salary and this matchup, he still rates out as a secondary pitcher. This is not a slight by any stretch, but it is an acknowledgement that his tournament upside is limited with the lofty price point. He does deserve consideration as a key cash-game (H2Hs, 3-mans, 50/50s, etc.) play with his solid floor.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Slade Cecconi (ARI vs. OAK)
Diamondbacks vs. Athletics – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$6,200 at DraftKings
$6,900 at FanDuel
$33 at Yahoo
This is close to being the wildest of the wild card recommendations for this season. In his 11 appearances, RHP Slade Cecconi has allowed six or more runs four times (36%). He also has one or fewer runs five times (45%), with two and three runs allowed in the other pair of performances.
Cecconi did get pulled after the third inning of his last outing, though it was in a tough road matchup against the Phillies, and he ended up ceding just one run; however, he allowed five hits and only struck out two. The 25-year-old is the fifth-best prospect for Arizona, and he profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter. He could slide back to the bullpen when RHP Merrill Kelly returns in August, though even when RHP Zac Gallen is back, expect Cecconi to hang onto a rotation slot. Heck, by the time Kelly returns, Cecconi could be well ahead of gas can Ryne Nelson.
In recent articles, we have covered how the A’s are top 10 in home runs, around league average for total bases but in the bottom 3 for runs scored. That is because they do not get runners on base via walks and, of course, due to having the second-most strikeouts in the league. Cecconi has ceded multiple round-trippers three times this season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians at Royals – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Alec Marsh
DK Top Stack %: 8.9%
FD Top Stack %: 8.7%
The last half dozen starts for RHP Alec Marsh have been rough, leaving him with a 6.61 ERA. Silver linings are a strikeout per inning in these 32.2 frames, including seven scoreless against the Yankees. The .319 batting average on balls in play is high, but so too are the 11 walks.
There is some weather risk with summer storms in the Kansas City area tonight, but game-time temperatures will be in the upper-80s, and the 10 to 15 mph breeze out to left-center should pair nicely with the elevated humidity, creating a strong home run environment. Last year, in 164 same-handed matchups, Marsh ceded a .241 ISO, which has increased to .254 in 130 plate appearances by right-handed batsmen. While lefties have fallen from a .259 ISO down to .105, that is probably a small-sample-size quirk.
The top of the Cleveland lineup is loaded with power, with Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez being the obvious sluggers, though Steven Kwan and Daniel Schneemann surprisingly have excellent marks this season against right-handed hurlers. The bottom of the order has not been particularly fantasy friendly with any sort of consistency, but catcher Bo Naylor would be the most logical candidate to round out a full stack, with Gabriel Arias a lottery ticket.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Padres – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Randy Vasquez
DK Top Stack %: 6.2%
FD Top Stack %: 6.4%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has Boston as a fine utility team, meaning it ranks favorably from the production, pricing and popularity perspectives, but it is not at the top of any element. Health has been an issue; if Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill and Masataka Yoshida are all in the lineup, however, this is a formidable team.
The rollercoaster ride continues with RHP Randy Velasquez, who has three or fewer runs in 70% of his appearances this season, but he has still allowed a home run in all but two. He also has issued seven free passes in his last 14.1 innings, which is a little concerning, as the 10 strikeouts in that time frame are not enough to continue to keep him out of trouble if these paces continue.
Over the last 10 games, the Red Sox have scored four or more runs nine times. In addition to the aforementioned trio in the first paragraph, Jarren Duran, David Hamilton and Wilyer Abreu are worthy of stacking consideration.
Late Slate Target: Detroit Tigers
Tigers at Angels – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Zach Plesac
DK Top Stack %: 17.8%
FD Top Stack %: 14.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Detroit offense tonight, but after the Motor City Kitties were shut out in Anaheim last night — including eight innings by rookie Davis Daniel, who also had eight strikeouts and scattered four hits — it is hard to stomach the Tigers as a top stack.
Of course, the team is facing RHP Zach Plesac, who probably is seeing his last hurrah in The Show. Plesac was a mess in the minors prior to being called up with 6.6 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings, accompanied by 34 dingers in 169.1 innings. This was in 94.2 frames last year with Cleveland’s Triple-A squad and 74.2 innings this year with the Salt Lake Bees.
Across 9.1 innings over two appearances for the Angels, the 29-year-old MLB-legacy has handed out four home runs, with only a paltry pair of strikeouts on his way to an 8.68 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Once more, look to Matt Vierling, Riley Greene and veteran Mark Canha as the trio to target. Colt Keith and Wenceel Perez can be used as fill-ins. It is hard to be enthusiastic about full stacks, though from a value perspective, looking at duos and trios from the Tigers is a great way to create salary cap flexibility.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight the under on Colin Rea’s 4.5 strikeouts prop is one worth attacking. Currently this is available at +105 on Hard Rock, Fanatics, ESPN BET and Fliff.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -106 “true odds” for under 4.5 strikeouts, which works out to a terrific 5.6% expected ROI.
While Rea is projected for just over 4.4 strikeouts, that is still a tick below the five he needs for this wager to fail.
We can see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by PointsBet all the way down to a -120 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 6% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper.
Rea will turn 34 this weekend, and yet somehow he is in the midst of a career season. The 3.62 ERA is in a territory that he has never seen before this far into a season, and it is well ahead of his 4.49 career average. On the flipside, Rea’s 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings are a career low, and he has five or more whiffs in only two of his last six appearances. This season, in 15 outings, he has four or fewer strikeouts nine times (67%), exactly five four times (27%) and more than five only twice, with six in each of those performances.
The projected lineup for Chicago has a 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, which is not great, but if Nico Hoerner (9.8%) and Cody Bellinger (18.3%) can make Rea use up some of his pitches, that could help contribute to him falling shy of five strikeouts in this matchup.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Friday, June 28
Friday has precipitation in the Midwest at varying degrees of risk. Chicago leads the way, with Kansas City and St. Louis worthy of a mention. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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