Get ready for Saturday night MLB DFS action, with contests locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease as today’s aces, for the main and late slates.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Mar. 30
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert vs. Boston Red Sox — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $9,900 | Yahoo $43
We will not be alone in the assessment that RHP Logan Gilbert is the desired hurler on the six-game featured slate. This holds true both from a quick scan of the other options and with the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool. Today will mark the 89th start of Gilbert’s career and the 26-year-old has a 105 ERA+, 3.67 FIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings across his 495.2 career innings. Though he has yet to make an All-Star team, he has been on the cusp each of the last two years.
The Boston lineup takes quite a hit with Rafael Devers (shoulder) dinged up, though he could end up playing tonight or tomorrow after sitting on Friday. Even with him in the lineup, the projected BoSox lineup has a 31.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the beginning of last year. Even better, this crew has a collective .134 ISO and it will be cool weather in the low-50s tonight for most of the game in Seattle.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease vs. San Francisco Giants — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $47
This will be an afternoon game in San Diego, with a 4:10 p.m. local start. RHP Dylan Cease was acquired by the Padres for a trio of low-level prospects and veteran reliever RHP Steven Wilson. Cease did have 200-plus strikeouts each of the last three years and he was the runner-up for the American League Cy Young two years ago, but he was uneven in his performances last season. Since leading the league with an eye-popping 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 2021, he has slipped to 11.1 and then 10.9 last year. There is no question that he is a workhorse having led the league in starts two of the last three seasons, but the 28-year-old has yet to make an All-Star team and that is a concern.
The change in scenery should benefit him as well as being third in this stacked rotation. It won’t be fun going against the Dodgers, but that is not an issue tonight as he will be facing a middling San Francisco offense. The Giants are not awful, but they are not world beaters either. Mike Yastrzemski is on the paternity list, which takes a key left-handed bat out of the lineup for tonight. If Cease is able to avoid putting runners on base, he should be in the mix for a quality start as well as a win.
There is rain in San Diego, but as long as the field holds up against this rare occurrence, the game should be a go, especially since they can push things back a couple hours easily.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Jordan Hicks at San Diego Padres — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $5,000 | FanDuel $6,000 | Yahoo $25
Though he has spent most of his career working out of the bullpen, RHP Jordan Hicks is going to have a chance to stick in the San Francisco rotation this season. Clearly the DFS salary algorithms did not account for this and the 27-year-old should at least be able to match the 72 pitches he logged in his final spring appearance and likely get close to 80, if he can survive the big bats of the Padres.
The Friars look vastly different without Juan Soto, Gary Sanchez and Trent Grisham in the batting order. Of course this is still a formidable group with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim. The low salary is rather appealing for Hicks, so The Masses are likely to land here as well on the two-pitcher sites.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: St. Louis Cardinals at RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:10 p.m. ET
It seems like RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto is getting a lot of credit with a 3.5 implied run total for today’s matchup against St. Louis. The 25-year-old had a rough spring, being saddled with an 8.38 ERA in 9.2 innings, though he did have 14 strikeouts. He made it just one inning in the Seoul Series, allowing five earned runs, with all five base runners scoring. He had one walk, one hit by pitch and two strikeouts, allowing a pair of doubles to catcher Luis Campusano and a triple to Jake Cronenworth. It is likely there will be an adjustment period, though he clearly has talent and the backing of the Dodgers, who handed hi a 12-year $325 million deal.
Los Angeles has a good bullpen, so there is no need to go overboard with the Cardinals. Focus on the top of the lineup with anchors Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, augmented with Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman. This is a tournament only stack, but a perfect way to gain leverage on the field with just six-teams on the evening docket.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. LHP Austin Gomber — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Day 3 of the Diamondbacks making this article is a little ridiculous, but also a precursor to just how bad the Colorado pitching is going to look in Coors Field. Tonight the Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed, There is a chance this could reverse course, though the decision that is made prior to the start of the game cannot be reversed during the game.
That said, even the amplified effects of the humidor-stored baseballs are unlikely to save LHP Austin Gomber tonight. Quick, what two teams were in the World Series last year … trick question, it actually was Arizona, which ultimately fell in five games to the Texas Rangers. Guessing many readers have forgotten that and now it starts to make more sense why the D’Backs keep popping up in this article. We will see less of them when they are facing the Dodgers and Padres, but otherwise this is a strong offense up and down the order.
Once upon a time, LHP Austin Gomber had a bit of a prospect status when he was with the St. Louis Cardinals, but he was never able to see much success translate in The Show. He did average 8.49 strikeouts per nine innings between 2018-2021 over 219.1 innings, but he bounced between the rotation, the pen and the minors each of those three four. Things have fallen apart the last two years, culminating in a career-low 5.63 strikeouts per nine innings last year with 1.68 home runs per nine.
Now that he is on the the wrong-side of 30, expect the power to be plentiful to both sides of the plate and it is likely when his Coors Field starts are included, batters of both handedness will have a .200 or better ISO. Christian Walker is the man of the hour tonight, with Eugenio Suarez also in the mix for a multi-extra base hit game. Ketel Marte is likely to swap spots in the order with Corbin Carroll, though the latter is still a stolen base threat if he is on board and he should see a couple of at bats against right-handed relievers. Gabriel Moreno also makes for a top catcher play, along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a heater and batting third in the order.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can look to Max Muncy in the sports wagering market with his +350 prop to hit a home run. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows this long-shot bet has ++338 “true odds” and the +350 line currently available at FanDuel is the book to place this wager, with a marginal 2.8% expected return on investment (ROI). Most of the other popular books are in the +280 range, which shows just how favorable this line is on FanDuel.
Home runs are of course very fickle and this prop has a 35% probability of coming to fruition. Muncy is not great at contact, but he can mash the ball when he connects, as evidenced by a wicked .281 ISO against right-handed hurlers last year. Last year RHP Lance Lynn allowed 2.16 home runs per nine innings in his combined time with the Dodgers and White Sox. This was by far the worst rate of his career and now he is in his age-37 season. Lefties accounted for 24 of the 44 hoe runs allowed, with a .289/.360/.551 triple-slash line.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, March 30 — MLB DFS Picks
Keep tabs on the weather in San Diego and Los Angeles. It is a wonky weather system that has SoCal seeing precipitation. This is a rare event and it appears there should be time to get in these games tonight as the local start times should allow for an easy push of two hours if necessary to get to a clean weather window.
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